JULY 2008 30-DAY OUTLOOK
512 PM EDT Mon. June 30, 2008
Atmospheric patterns, 700 MB and 500 MB height anomalies, statistical
data, and various models, along with observed cases from past such
months and also data from 1895-2000 were used in this forecast.
Sea surface temperatures along the equatorial Pacific remain below
normal over the central Pacific. Sea surface temperatures are above
normal in the eastern Pacific. The atmospheric circulation across the
tropical Pacific are reflective of a weakened La Nina. Low-level
easterlies are weaker than normal along the Equator suppressed
convection in the central equatorial Pacific. Convection is enhanced
over the western equatorial Pacific. Models depict neutral conditions
during the next few months. Some models indicate rapid warming of the
equatorial Pacific.

NAO is currently in a negative phase and is forecast to remain
negative during the first 14 days of the month. The PNA is also
positive and is forecast to trend towards negative during the same
period. Models are in good agreement with the 500-HPA pattern for
July. A trough is forecast over the Gulf of Alaska, a ridge in the
West. Another trough will be in the Ohio Valley. Heights are expected
to be above normal near the Gulf of Alaska and the Ohio Valley. Above
normal heights are expected across western Canada into the Rockies.
Heights will be near to below normal across the southern part of the
nation.

Above normal temperatures are expected across the western Plains and
the Rockies. The probability of above normal temperatures in this
region is 57 percent. Above normal temperatures are also expected
parts of the Northeast. The probability of above normal temperatures
occurring across this area is 56 percent. The remainder of the nation
is expected to average near normal with no significant deviation from
normal climatology.
Below normal precipitation is expected across the western Plains to
the West coast. The probability of below normal precipitation in this
area is 56 percent. Above normal precipitation is expected across the
Southeast into the Ohio valley and the central gulf coast. The
probability of above normal precipitation in this region is 56
percent. The remainder of the nation is expected to be near normal
with no significant deviation from climatology.
Jim Munley Jr.
http://www.geocities.com/jimmunleywx