On Sep 22, 2:26 pm, "zboon" wrote:


". none of the climate states in the models correspond even remotely to
the current observed climate. In particular, the state of the oceans,
sea ice, and soil moisture has no relationship to the observed state at
any recent time in any of the IPCC models." Kevin Trenberth, IPCC
Coordinating Lead Author

Kevin Trenberth also wrote in:
http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/Trenbert...llinsFeb08.pdf

Start extract
"....Maybe there is not a crisis in the sense that the world’s weather
is falling apart now. But there is a major crisis in the failure to
act to prevent potentially catastrophic changes in the future, in the
times of our grandchildren, and their children. Changes in the climate
are already evident.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has spoken: “Warming of
the climate system is unequivocal” and it is “very likely” due to
human activities. Those were the key conclusions approved by 113
nations in Working Group I, which studies the science of climate
change and the role of humans in affecting climate. The full report
that
is the basis for the summary was drafted by 154 lead authors and more
than 450 contributing authors and runs to over 1,000 pages. Two other
IPCC working groups deal with impacts of climate change,
vulnerability, and options for adaptation to such changes, and options
for mitigating and slowing the climate change, including possible
policy options. In recognition of the stalwart work over 20 years, the
2007 Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to the IPCC and Al Gore.
Global mean temperatures have increased since the 19th century, and
especially since the mid-1970s. Temperatures have increased nearly
everywhere over land, and sea temperatures have also increased,
reinforcing the evidence from land. However, global warming does not
mean that temperatures increase steadily or uniformly because the
atmospheric circulation also changes. As Gray suggests, natural
variability has always been around and will continue. But we can now
clearly demonstrate with climate models (and replicate this in many
different countries and groups) that since about 1970 observed climate
change is well outside the realm of natural variability.

Some changes arising from global warming may be benign or even
beneficial, such as a longer growing season. But warming means
increased heat waves and drying that increases risk of drought and
reduces snowpack and water resources, a major concern in the West. It
also increases water vapor in the atmosphere leading to more intense
storms, heavier rains and greater risk of flooding, something observed
to be happening in the US and elsewhere. Moreover, as noted by IPCC,
there is clear evidence that upper level water vapor is increasing.

The scientific understanding of climate change is now sufficiently
clear to show that specific global and regional changes resulting from
global warming are already upon us. The future projections are for
much more warming, but with rates of change perhaps a hundred times as
fast as those experienced in nature over the past 10,000 years. Just
how fast depends on how humans as a whole respond to these warnings.
There are uncertainties (although these cut both ways). However, the
inertia of the climate system and the long life of carbon dioxide in
the atmosphere mean that we are already committed to a significant
level of climate change.
End extract