WEBCommentary Contributor
Author: Paul Driessen
Date: March 5, 2009

It's the Sun, stupid!

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New direct evidence demonstrate that changes in solar activity influence
climate.
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The theory that climate change is chiefly caused by solar influences "is no
longer tenable," says US National Academy of Sciences president Ralph
Cicerone. Carbon dioxide, he argues, is the key driver of recent climate
change. I beg to differ.

The amount and distribution of solar energy that we receive varies as the
Earth revolves around the Sun and also in response to changes in the Sun's
activity. Scientists have now been studying solar influences on climate for
5000 years.

Chinese imperial astronomers kept detailed sunspot records. They noticed
that more sunspots meant warmer weather on Earth. In 1801, the celebrated
astronomer William Herschel noticed that when there were few spots, the
price of wheat soared - because, he surmised, less "light and heat" from the
Sun resulted in reduced harvests.

Is it true then that solar radiation, which supplies Earth with the energy
that drives our climate, and caused so many climate shifts over the ages, is
no longer the principal influence on climate change?

The UN's climate panel claims there is scientific "consensus" that man-made
CO2 emissions are causing "dangerous" climate change. However, its 2007
Climate Assessment is fraught with serious scientific shortcomings in its
discussion of the Sun's influence on Earth's climate.

The UN said direct measurements of solar radiation since 1979 show little
increase. However, this conclusion depends upon disparate and adjusted
measurements that were combined from several satellites and may be
incorrect.

Between 1645 and 1715, sunspots were very rare and temperatures were low.
Then sunspot frequency grew until, between 1930 and 2000, the Sun was more
active than at almost any time in the last 10,000 years. The oceans can
cause up to several decades of delay before air temperatures respond fully
to this solar "Grand Maximum." Now that the Sun is becoming less active
again, global temperatures have fallen for seven years.

Next, the UN said estimates of the increase in solar radiation over the past
400 years should be reduced. The basis for this claim was a modeling study
by the US Naval Research Laboratory. However, the Navy computer program was
not designed to reach such conclusions, as it has no routine to calculate
solar radiation.

We have known for nearly 80 years that small changes in solar activity can
cause large climatic changes. Where sunlight falls, for how long, and with
what effect, determine how climate will respond.

The most recent scientific evidence shows that even small changes in solar
radiation have a strong effect on Earth's temperature and climate.

In 2005, I demonstrated a surprisingly strong correlation between solar
radiation and temperatures in the Arctic over the past 130 years. Since
then, I have demonstrated similar correlations in all the regions
surrounding the Arctic, including the US mainland and China.

The close relationships between the abrupt ups and downs of solar activity
and of temperature that I have identified occur locally in coastal
Greenland; regionally in the Arctic Pacific and north Atlantic; and
hemispherically for the whole circum-Arctic, suggesting that changes in
solar activity drive Arctic and perhaps even global climate.

There is no such match between the steady rise in atmospheric CO2
concentration and the often dramatic ups and downs of surface temperatures
in and around the Arctic.

I recently discovered direct evidence that changes in solar activity have
influenced what has been called the "conveyor-belt" circulation of the great
Atlantic Ocean currents over the past 240 years. For instance, solar-driven
changes in temperature, and in the volume of freshwater output from the
Arctic, cause variations in sea surface temperature in the tropical Atlantic
5-20 years later.

These previously undocumented results have been published in the journal
Physical Geography. They make it difficult to maintain that changes in solar
activity play an insignificant role in climate change, especially over the
Arctic.

The hallmark of good science is the testing of a plausible hypothesis that
is then either supported or rejected by the evidence. The evidence in my
paper is consistent with the hypothesis that the Sun causes climatic change
in the Arctic.

It invalidates the hypothesis that CO2 is a major cause of observed climate
change - and raises serious questions about the wisdom of imposing
cap-and-trade or other policies that would cripple energy production and
economic activity, in the name of "preventing catastrophic climate change."

Bill Clinton used to sum up politics by saying, "It's the economy, stupid!"
Now we can fairly sum up climate change by saying, "It's the Sun, stupid!"

Paul Driessen
Eco-Imperialism


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Notes:
Willie Soon is a solar and climate scientist at the Harvard-Smithsonian
Center for Astrophysics. This is his personal opinion based upon 18 years of
scientific research.


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Biography - Paul Driessen

Paul Driessen is senior policy advisor for the Congress of Racial Equality,
senior fellow with the Committee For A Constructive Tomorrow and author of
Eco-Imperialism: Green Power · Black Death (www.Eco-Imperialism.com).