New theory blames cosmic rays for helping CFCs deplete ozone
Fellow scientists say Waterloo professor's hypothesis needs more study
Last Updated: Thursday, March 26, 2009 | 8:02 PM ET

By Emily Chung, CBC News

The hole in the Earth's protective ozone layer above Antarctica will be very
big this year - and it will be big again in 2020 - contrary to previous
predictions, argues a Canadian researcher.

Qing-Bin Lu, a professor of physics and astronomy at the University of
Waterloo, says his research suggests the long-held theory about how
ultraviolet light combines with man-made chemicals to destroy the Earth's
ozone layer is incorrect.

His results, published in the latest issue of Physical Review Letters, back
up a new theory, he says, and call into question predictions about when the
ozone layer will recover. They also suggest some ozone-depleting chemicals
might need to be re-evaluated.

The ozone layer in the atmosphere, more than a dozen kilometres above the
Earth's surface, absorbs most of the sun's ultraviolet radiation and
prevents it from hitting the surface of the Earth, where it can cause
sunburn and other skin damage that could eventually lead to skin cancer.

Damage to the layer has been blamed for the large ozone hole above the South
Pole that forms each spring in the southern hemisphere, increasing exposure
to ultraviolet radiation for people in Australia and New Zealand.

Scientists have long believed that chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) - chemical
compounds that used to be found in refrigerants, aerosol spray cans and fire
extinguishers - released into the atmosphere undergo a photochemical
reaction in the presence of ultraviolet light that breaks down the ozone.
Many of those compounds were banned by the Montreal Protocol, an
international agreement ratified by 180 countries in 1987.

Lu agrees that CFCs are responsible for destroying the ozone layer but
argues it's not reactions induced by ultraviolet light that deplete the
ozone but CFCs' reaction with electrons in the atmosphere. Those electrons
are released when high-energy particles, mostly protons, from outer space
known as cosmic rays hit the atmosphere and cause ionization.

Because the electrons are charged, they tend to be drawn toward the poles
because of the Earth's magnetic field. The reaction is enhanced in the
presence of ice, found in clouds at the level of the ozone layer.

Lu based his theory on measurements of cosmic rays and ozone made by NASA
between 1980 and 2007. That data shows that when the amount of cosmic rays
hitting the Earth is high - as it was in 2008 and 2009 - more ozone is lost
from the atmosphere. The level of cosmic rays hitting the Earth rises and
falls according to an 11-year cycle based on energy fluctuations from the
sun. The sun's energy affects the level of cosmic rays hitting the Earth,
with the amount of cosmic rays being highest when the level of solar
radiation is lowest and vice versa, Lu said.

If the photochemical theory is correct, you would expect to see a smaller
ozone hole when the level of solar radiation is lower, as in 2008 and 2009,
Lu said.

"The fact is, actually, in 2008, we've already seen one of the biggest
[ozone holes], and very likely, we will see one of the biggest in 2009,
too."

Another large hole in 2019-2020: Lu
Lu's theory predicts another large ozone hole around 2019-2020. That is
contrary to a prediction by the United Nations World Meteorological
Organization, which predicts that the ozone hole will shrink five to 10 per
cent between 2000 and 2020 because the amount of CFCs in the atmosphere is
declining. That is true, Lu said, but the high level of cosmic rays at
certain points in the solar cycle is more significant.

Lu also suggested that scientists will need to run more experiments on the
impact of CFCs on ozone depletion.

"If you don't have [the] right understanding, probably you will not make a
correct evaluation of the chemicals," he said.

Lab experiments show the reaction between chlorofluorocarbons and electrons
breaks down ozone 10,000 to a million times more quickly than the similar
reaction involving CFCs and ultraviolet light, Lu said.

Theory needs more study: researchers
Lu learned about the reaction between electrons and CFCs while doing
unrelated experiments about 10 years ago and later wondered what
implications it had for reactions in the atmosphere, where electrons are
generated by cosmic rays. He first proposed it as a cause of ozone depletion
in a paper in 2001 but now has far more data to back it up, he said.

Tom McElroy, an Environment Canada researcher who has been studying ozone
depletion for decades, said there is still a lot scientists don't understand
about ozone depletion and the Antarctic ozone hole, and it's possible that
cosmic rays might be a contributing factor.

"However, this concept needs further study in order to quantify the effect,
if any," McElroy said in an email.

Lu's paper does not offer conclusive proof about the role of cosmic rays in
ozone depletion, he said. Nor does it offer enough evidence to discount the
role of ultraviolet radiation, which has been "well studied for many years
and is supported by strong scientific evidence," McElroy said.

Doug Degenstein, a physics and engineering physics researcher at the
University of Saskatchewan, said the evidence to support the ultraviolet
theory includes both experiments and models.

As for the cosmic ray theory, Degenstein said "there's no doubt" Lu's paper
has demonstrated a correlation between ozone depletion and cosmic rays.

However, he said, there are a lot of other factors that could have affected
the results that were not discussed in the paper, and while the correlation
is interesting, it doesn't offer definitive proof that Lu's theory is
correct.

"I think there's definitely something there," said Degenstein, whose own
research involves satellite measurements of the atmosphere. "It's one of
those things where [you might ask], 'How important is it, though?'"

University of Toronto physics professor Kimberly Strong said in an email
that there has already been some discussion in the scientific literature of
the past year about Lu's theory.

"I think the jury is still out on Dr. Lu's hypothesis," Strong said, "which
I suspect will lead to further analysis and discussion in the scientific
literature."

On Mar 27, 7:09*am, "Ms. 2"
wrote:
New theory blames cosmic rays for helping CFCs deplete ozone
Fellow scientists say Waterloo professor's hypothesis needs more study
Last Updated: Thursday, March 26, 2009 | 8:02 PM ET

By Emily Chung, CBC News

The hole in the Earth's protective ozone layer above Antarctica will be very
big this year - and it will be big again in 2020 - contrary to previous
predictions, argues a Canadian researcher.

Qing-Bin Lu, a professor of physics and astronomy at the University of
Waterloo, says his research suggests the long-held theory about how
ultraviolet light combines with man-made chemicals to destroy the Earth's
ozone layer is incorrect.

His results, published in the latest issue of Physical Review Letters, back
up a new theory, he says, and call into question predictions about when the
ozone layer will recover. They also suggest some ozone-depleting chemicals
might need to be re-evaluated.

The ozone layer in the atmosphere, more than a dozen kilometres above the
Earth's surface, absorbs most of the sun's ultraviolet radiation and
prevents it from hitting the surface of the Earth, where it can cause
sunburn and other skin damage that could eventually lead to skin cancer.

Damage to the layer has been blamed for the large ozone hole above the South
Pole that forms each spring in the southern hemisphere, increasing exposure
to ultraviolet radiation for people in Australia and New Zealand.

Scientists have long believed that chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) - chemical
compounds that used to be found in refrigerants, aerosol spray cans and fire
extinguishers - released into the atmosphere undergo a photochemical
reaction in the presence of ultraviolet light that breaks down the ozone.
Many of those compounds were banned by the Montreal Protocol, an
international agreement ratified by 180 countries in 1987.

Lu agrees that CFCs are responsible for destroying the ozone layer but
argues it's not reactions induced by ultraviolet light that deplete the
ozone but CFCs' reaction with electrons in the atmosphere. Those electrons
are released when high-energy particles, mostly protons, from outer space
known as cosmic rays hit the atmosphere and cause ionization.

Because the electrons are charged, they tend to be drawn toward the poles
because of the Earth's magnetic field. The reaction is enhanced in the
presence of ice, found in clouds at the level of the ozone layer.

Lu based his theory on measurements of cosmic rays and ozone made by NASA
between 1980 and 2007. That data shows that when the amount of cosmic rays
hitting the Earth is high - as it was in 2008 and 2009 - more ozone is lost
from the atmosphere. The level of cosmic rays hitting the Earth rises and
falls according to an 11-year cycle based on energy fluctuations from the
sun. The sun's energy affects the level of cosmic rays hitting the Earth,
with the amount of cosmic rays being highest when the level of solar
radiation is lowest and vice versa, Lu said.

If the photochemical theory is correct, you would expect to see a smaller
ozone hole when the level of solar radiation is lower, as in 2008 and 2009,
Lu said.

"The fact is, actually, in 2008, we've already seen one of the biggest
[ozone holes], and very likely, we will see one of the biggest in 2009,
too."

Another large hole in 2019-2020: Lu
Lu's theory predicts another large ozone hole around 2019-2020. That is
contrary to a prediction by the United Nations World Meteorological
Organization, which predicts that the ozone hole will shrink five to 10 per
cent between 2000 and 2020 because the amount of CFCs in the atmosphere is
declining. That is true, Lu said, but the high level of cosmic rays at
certain points in the solar cycle is more significant.

Lu also suggested that scientists will need to run more experiments on the
impact of CFCs on ozone depletion.

"If you don't have [the] right understanding, probably you will not make a
correct evaluation of the chemicals," he said.

Lab experiments show the reaction between chlorofluorocarbons and electrons
breaks down ozone 10,000 to a million times more quickly than the similar
reaction involving CFCs and ultraviolet light, Lu said.

Theory needs more study: researchers
Lu learned about the reaction between electrons and CFCs while doing
unrelated experiments about 10 years ago and later wondered what
implications it had for reactions in the atmosphere, where electrons are
generated by cosmic rays. He first proposed it as a cause of ozone depletion
in a paper in 2001 but now has far more data to back it up, he said.

Tom McElroy, an Environment Canada researcher who has been studying ozone
depletion for decades, said there is still a lot scientists don't understand
about ozone depletion and the Antarctic ozone hole, and it's possible that
cosmic rays might be a contributing factor.

"However, this concept needs further study in order to quantify the effect,
if any," McElroy said in an email.

Lu's paper does not offer conclusive proof about the role of cosmic rays in
ozone depletion, he said. Nor does it offer enough evidence to discount the
role of ultraviolet radiation, which has been "well studied for many years
and is supported by strong scientific evidence," McElroy said.

Doug Degenstein, a physics and engineering physics researcher at the
University of Saskatchewan, said the evidence to support the ultraviolet
theory includes both experiments and models.

As for the cosmic ray theory, Degenstein said "there's no doubt" Lu's paper
has demonstrated a correlation between ozone depletion and cosmic rays.

However, he said, there are a lot of other factors that could have affected
the results that were not discussed in the paper, and while the correlation
is interesting, it doesn't offer definitive proof that Lu's theory is
correct.

"I think there's definitely something there," said Degenstein, whose own
research involves satellite measurements of the atmosphere. "It's one of
those things where [you might ask], 'How important is it, though?'"

University of Toronto physics professor Kimberly Strong said in an email
that there has already been some discussion in the scientific literature of
the past year about Lu's theory.

"I think the jury is still out on Dr. Lu's hypothesis," Strong said, "which
I suspect will lead to further analysis and discussion in the scientific
literature."

Thank goodness we can get really, really frightened of the ozone hole
again. I was getting really, really bored of the global warming scare
which is getting really, really stale after these many, many years.

On Fri, 27 Mar 2009 07:12:27 -0700 (PDT), wrote:


...we can get really, really frightened of the ozone hole
again.


The graphs at this site show the ozone hole has ceased growing,
although the size fluctuates from year to year.
http://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/

"Surfer" wrote in message
...
On Fri, 27 Mar 2009 07:12:27 -0700 (PDT), wrote:


...we can get really, really frightened of the ozone hole
again.


The graphs at this site show the ozone hole has ceased growing,
although the size fluctuates from year to year.
http://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/



Oh goodie, graphs. Science to the rescue, as always.

On Mar 27, 10:09*am, "Ms. 2"
wrote:
New theory blames cosmic rays for helping CFCs deplete ozone
Fellow scientists say Waterloo professor's hypothesis needs more study
Last Updated: Thursday, March 26, 2009 | 8:02 PM ET

By Emily Chung, CBC News

The hole in the Earth's protective ozone layer above Antarctica will be very
big this year - and it will be big again in 2020 - contrary to previous
predictions, argues a Canadian researcher.

Qing-Bin Lu, a professor of physics and astronomy at the University of
Waterloo, says his research suggests the long-held theory about how
ultraviolet light combines with man-made chemicals to destroy the Earth's
ozone layer is incorrect.

snip

That horse is alreday dead. Continue to flog it if it amuses you.
The 'danger' to the ozone hole was over-rated by about ten-fold.

To save you a subscription fee, the key prtion is as follows:

"As the world marks 20 years since the introduction of the Montreal
Protocol to protect the ozone layer, Nature has learned of
experimental data that threaten to shatter established theories of
ozone chemistry. If the data are right, scientists will have to
rethink their understanding of how ozone holes are formed and how that
relates to climate change.

Long-lived chloride compounds from anthropogenic emissions of
chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) are the main cause of worrying seasonal
ozone losses in both hemispheres. In 1985, researchers discovered a
hole in the ozone layer above the Antarctic, after atmospheric
chloride levels built up. The Montreal Protocol, agreed in 1987 and
ratified two years later, stopped the production and consumption of
most ozone-destroying chemicals. But many will linger on in the
atmosphere for decades to come. How and on what timescales they will
break down depend on the molecules' ultraviolet absorption spectrum
(the wavelength of light a molecule can absorb), as the energy for the
process comes from sunlight. Molecules break down and react at
different speeds according to the wavelength available and the
temperature, both of which are factored into the protocol.

So Markus Rex, an atmosphere scientist at the Alfred Wegener Institute
of Polar and Marine Research in Potsdam, Germany, did a double-take
when he saw new data for the break-down rate of a crucial molecule,
dichlorine peroxide (Cl2O2). The rate of photolysis (light-activated
splitting) of this molecule reported by chemists at NASA's Jet
Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California1, was extremely low in
the wavelengths available in the stratosphere - almost an order of
magnitude lower than the currently accepted rate.

"This must have far-reaching consequences," Rex says. "If the
measurements are correct we can basically no longer say we understand
how ozone holes come into being." What effect the results have on
projections of the speed or extent of ozone depletion remains unclear.

"The rapid photolysis of Cl2O2 is a key reaction in the chemical model
of ozone destruction developed 20 years ago2 (see graphic). If the
rate is substantially lower than previously thought, then it would not
be possible to create enough aggressive chlorine radicals to explain
the observed ozone losses at high latitudes, says Rex. The extent of
the discrepancy became apparent only when he incorporated the new
photolysis rate into a chemical model of ozone depletion. The result
was a shock: at least 60% of ozone destruction at the poles seems to
be due to an unknown mechanism, Rex told a meeting of stratosphere
researchers in Bremen, Germany, last week."

http://www.nature.com/news/2007/0709...l/449382a.html

The hyperbolic appellation "ozone hole" turn out to apply to a
seasonal reduction of the stratospheric ozone concentration that is
restricted to the polar regions. It restores itself annually. Of
course, the chlorides that everybody has always worried about are
still present even as the ozone concentration performs its annual
INCREASE.

Tom Davidson
Richmond, VA