Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 09 Apr 2009

STATUS REPORT
Date Released: Thursday, April 9, 2009
Source: Space Environment Center (NOAA)

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2009 Apr 09 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 099 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Apr 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during the past 24
hours. The solar disk remains spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field was at quiet to active conditions. The ACE spacecraft observed a
continued rise in solar wind velocity during the last 24 hours reflecting
the arrival of the coronal hole high speed stream. Wind speeds averaged
around 480 km/s with Bz fluctuations +/- 5 nT.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be
at quiet to unsettled levels for 10 April. Predominantly quiet conditions
should return for 11-12 April.

III. Event Probabilities 10 Apr-12 Apr

Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 09 Apr 070
Predicted 10 Apr-12 Apr 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 09 Apr 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 08 Apr 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Apr 009/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Apr-12 Apr 007/008-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Apr-12 Apr

A. Middle Latitudes

Active 30/05/05
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 35/10/10
Minor storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01