"No flares were observed during the last 24 hours. The solar disk remains
spotless."

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2009 Apr 15 2201 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 105
Issued at 2200Z on 15 Apr 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The STEREO spacecraft observed a
CME which was possibly correlated with a small dimming on the solar disk
around sun center and just north of the equator as observed by EIT imagery
at 14/0148UT. No flares were observed during the last 24 hours. The solar
disk remains spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field was at quiet levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to
be at quiet levels for 16 April. Predominately unsettled conditions with
isolated active periods are expected for 17 April due to a recurrent coronal
hole high speed stream. Quiet levels are expected to return for 18 April.
Although the CME discussed in Part IA may be observed at ACE, no significant
increase in geomagnetic activity is expected.

III. Event Probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Apr 069
Predicted 16 Apr-18 Apr 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 15 Apr 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Apr 001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Apr 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Apr-18 Apr 005/005-008/010-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/15/05
Minor storm 01/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/20/10
Minor storm 01/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01