I am trying to find something better than the standard "average
daily low for month" data. That doesn't tell me how cold it's likely
to get in January. Each year a given city has a lowest low for
January. Data has been kept for years. Where do I find the average
of those lowest lows over all the years data has been kept? (Not just
for January, and for any given location.)
What I would REALLY LIKE is a graph using the average of the
coldest 10% of days on record for each day in a given month over the
years - in a graph. (Example: if there are 60 years of data available
- there would be 60 lows for Jan 10th. You would use the average of
the lowest 6 of those in the graph - and there would be 365 such
points in the graph.) That would give a better picture of how cold it
could possibly get (likely possibility), and how many days could be
nearly that cold.
One dataset says the "mean ext. lows" for January for Asheville, NC
is 8.1, and the "mean mo. low" for January is 26.6 (http://
www.erpelding.com/E&A-Weather-Asheville.pdf). Is "mean ext. lows"
what I described in the 1st paragraph? I assume the second number
(26.6) is the average low for January (avg of the 31 days) over the
years - but the site doesn't specifically say if that is for a
particular year or all years on record, and it doesn't give a source
for the data.
The mentioned site is the only place I have found in HOURS of
searching that may have what I described in the 1st paragraph. I tried
to use Google to find a definition of "mean ext. lows" but was
unsuccessful. I really need what I described in the second paragraph.

Any help appreciated.

On Sat, 17 Oct 2009 10:32:03 -0700 (PDT), Jonathon4
wrote:

I am trying to find something better than the standard "average
daily low for month" data. That doesn't tell me how cold it's likely
to get in January. Each year a given city has a lowest low for
January. Data has been kept for years. Where do I find the average
of those lowest lows over all the years data has been kept? (Not just
for January, and for any given location.)
f What I would REALLY LIKE is a graph using the average of the
coldest 10% of days on record for each day in a given month over the
years - in a graph. (Example: if there are 60 years of data available
- there would be 60 lows for Jan 10th. You would use the average of
the lowest 6 of those in the graph - and there would be 365 such
points in the graph.) That would give a better picture of how cold it
could possibly get (likely possibility), and how many days could be
nearly that cold.
One dataset says the "mean ext. lows" for January for Asheville, NC
is 8.1, and the "mean mo. low" for January is 26.6 (http://
www.erpelding.com/E&A-Weather-Asheville.pdf). Is "mean ext. lows"
what I described in the 1st paragraph?

That may be as close as you can get if you want
an average, mean is almost the same as average, but
it can get a lot colder than the average or mean.

All-time record low for states is available, but
finding a complete listing of low minimums may be
difficult.
Many sites carry the maximum high, the
low maximum, the low minimum and the maximum
low, possibly with different wording.


I assume the second number
(26.6) is the average low for January (avg of the 31 days) over the
years - but the site doesn't specifically say if that is for a
particular year or all years on record, and it doesn't give a source
for the data.
The mentioned site is the only place I have found in HOURS of
searching that may have what I described in the 1st paragraph. I tried
to use Google to find a definition of "mean ext. lows" but was
unsuccessful. I really need what I described in the second paragraph.

Any help appreciated.

Do you really want a mean? The all-time
record lows are at;

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._st...ature_extremes

But some of those records may be broken this year;

http://www.iceagenow.com/Record_Lows_2009.htm :-)

You may find more of what you want at;

http://weather-warehouse.com/?gclid=...FcZM5QodL01HsQ


Some sites may not be specific about the terms,
all time record low is different than the record low for
the day of year (or daily low).

The daily low records can easily be broken
because that date may not have had all the conditions
needed for a record low before even though the data
set may be 150 or more years old.

All time record lows can only happen in winter
and all time record highs only in summer, but every
day of the year has a record high and low for the date.

"for the date" doesn't really mean much because
in a leap year, the day of year has a date one day off.

All time record lows for a state may be as much
as 15 or 20 degrees colder than any of the daily lows
(record low for the date).

For instance, the all time record low here was
22 below F, while the typical or average low for any
year may be in the single digits F, or even low teens.

http://www.usatoday.com/weather/wheat7.htm



Look around;

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/.../extremes.html


My question is;

http://globalfreeze.wordpress.com/20...d-summer-lows/

On Oct 17, 4:34 pm, "I M @ good guy" wrote:
On Sat, 17 Oct 2009 10:32:03 -0700 (PDT), Jonathon4

wrote:
I am trying to find something better than the standard "average
daily low for month" data. That doesn't tell me how cold it's likely
to get in January. Each year a given city has a lowest low for
January. Data has been kept for years. Where do I find the average
of those lowest lows over all the years data has been kept? (Not just
for January, and for any given location.)

f What I would REALLY LIKE is a graph using the average of the

coldest 10% of days on record for each day in a given month over the
years - in a graph. (Example: if there are 60 years of data available
- there would be 60 lows for Jan 10th. You would use the average of
the lowest 6 of those in the graph - and there would be 365 such
points in the graph.) That would give a better picture of how cold it
could possibly get (likely possibility), and how many days could be
nearly that cold.
One dataset says the "mean ext. lows" for January for Asheville, NC
is 8.1, and the "mean mo. low" for January is 26.6 (http://
www.erpelding.com/E&A-Weather-Asheville.pdf). Is "mean ext. lows"
what I described in the 1st paragraph?

That may be as close as you can get if you want
an average, mean is almost the same as average, but
it can get a lot colder than the average or mean.

All-time record low for states is available, but
finding a complete listing of low minimums may be
difficult.
Many sites carry the maximum high, the
low maximum, the low minimum and the maximum
low, possibly with different wording.

I assume the second number
(26.6) is the average low for January (avg of the 31 days) over the
years - but the site doesn't specifically say if that is for a
particular year or all years on record, and it doesn't give a source
for the data.
The mentioned site is the only place I have found in HOURS of
searching that may have what I described in the 1st paragraph. I tried
to use Google to find a definition of "mean ext. lows" but was
unsuccessful. I really need what I described in the second paragraph.

Any help appreciated.

Do you really want a mean? The all-time
record lows are at;

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._st...ature_extremes

But some of those records may be broken this year;

http://www.iceagenow.com/Record_Lows_2009.htm :-)

You may find more of what you want at;

http://weather-warehouse.com/?gclid=...FcZM5QodL01HsQ

Some sites may not be specific about the terms,
all time record low is different than the record low for
the day of year (or daily low).

The daily low records can easily be broken
because that date may not have had all the conditions
needed for a record low before even though the data
set may be 150 or more years old.

All time record lows can only happen in winter
and all time record highs only in summer, but every
day of the year has a record high and low for the date.

"for the date" doesn't really mean much because
in a leap year, the day of year has a date one day off.

All time record lows for a state may be as much
as 15 or 20 degrees colder than any of the daily lows
(record low for the date).

For instance, the all time record low here was
22 below F, while the typical or average low for any
year may be in the single digits F, or even low teens.

http://www.usatoday.com/weather/wheat7.htm

Look around;

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/.../extremes.html

My question is;

http://globalfreeze.wordpress.com/20...up-record-summ...

I am not interested in record temperatures. I want the data
representing the coldest 10% of daily lows for each day selected from
data going back many years - so I can get an idea of how cold it might
reasonably be on a given day - many weeks in advance. A record is an
unlikely worst-case scenario that is/was a one-time event. I want a
LIKELY worst case scenario for a given day. It might even be better
that the record low for each day is actually removed from the data.

The site you mention, http://weather-warehouse.com/?gclid=...FcZM5QodL01HsQ,
wants $210 for daily hi/low temperature data from Asheville, NC (from
the first listed Asheville station).
I could have used that data (if not for the $$) to make a spread sheet
to do what I want. I found another site where I can get the data for
each day - one at a time - so it would take a very, very long time to
get all the data I want.

On Sat, 17 Oct 2009 15:26:12 -0700 (PDT), Jonathon4
wrote:

On Oct 17, 4:34 pm, "I M @ good guy" wrote:
On Sat, 17 Oct 2009 10:32:03 -0700 (PDT), Jonathon4

wrote:
I am trying to find something better than the standard "average
daily low for month" data. That doesn't tell me how cold it's likely
to get in January. Each year a given city has a lowest low for
January. Data has been kept for years. Where do I find the average
of those lowest lows over all the years data has been kept? (Not just
for January, and for any given location.)

f What I would REALLY LIKE is a graph using the average of the

coldest 10% of days on record for each day in a given month over the
years - in a graph. (Example: if there are 60 years of data available
- there would be 60 lows for Jan 10th. You would use the average of
the lowest 6 of those in the graph - and there would be 365 such
points in the graph.) That would give a better picture of how cold it
could possibly get (likely possibility), and how many days could be
nearly that cold.
One dataset says the "mean ext. lows" for January for Asheville, NC
is 8.1, and the "mean mo. low" for January is 26.6 (http://
www.erpelding.com/E&A-Weather-Asheville.pdf). Is "mean ext. lows"
what I described in the 1st paragraph?

That may be as close as you can get if you want
an average, mean is almost the same as average, but
it can get a lot colder than the average or mean.

All-time record low for states is available, but
finding a complete listing of low minimums may be
difficult.
Many sites carry the maximum high, the
low maximum, the low minimum and the maximum
low, possibly with different wording.

I assume the second number
(26.6) is the average low for January (avg of the 31 days) over the
years - but the site doesn't specifically say if that is for a
particular year or all years on record, and it doesn't give a source
for the data.
The mentioned site is the only place I have found in HOURS of
searching that may have what I described in the 1st paragraph. I tried
to use Google to find a definition of "mean ext. lows" but was
unsuccessful. I really need what I described in the second paragraph.

Any help appreciated.

Do you really want a mean? The all-time
record lows are at;

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._st...ature_extremes

But some of those records may be broken this year;

http://www.iceagenow.com/Record_Lows_2009.htm :-)

You may find more of what you want at;

http://weather-warehouse.com/?gclid=...FcZM5QodL01HsQ

Some sites may not be specific about the terms,
all time record low is different than the record low for
the day of year (or daily low).

The daily low records can easily be broken
because that date may not have had all the conditions
needed for a record low before even though the data
set may be 150 or more years old.

All time record lows can only happen in winter
and all time record highs only in summer, but every
day of the year has a record high and low for the date.

"for the date" doesn't really mean much because
in a leap year, the day of year has a date one day off.

All time record lows for a state may be as much
as 15 or 20 degrees colder than any of the daily lows
(record low for the date).

For instance, the all time record low here was
22 below F, while the typical or average low for any
year may be in the single digits F, or even low teens.

http://www.usatoday.com/weather/wheat7.htm

Look around;

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/.../extremes.html

My question is;

http://globalfreeze.wordpress.com/20...up-record-summ...

I am not interested in record temperatures. I want the data
representing the coldest 10% of daily lows for each day selected from
data going back many years - so I can get an idea of how cold it might
reasonably be on a given day - many weeks in advance. A record is an
unlikely worst-case scenario that is/was a one-time event. I want a
LIKELY worst case scenario for a given day. It might even be better
that the record low for each day is actually removed from the data.

The site you mention, http://weather-warehouse.com/?gclid=...FcZM5QodL01HsQ,
wants $210 for daily hi/low temperature data from Asheville, NC (from
the first listed Asheville station).
I could have used that data (if not for the $$) to make a spread sheet
to do what I want. I found another site where I can get the data for
each day - one at a time - so it would take a very, very long time to
get all the data I want.

Sorry, I didn't see the charge for access.

Yes, assembling data can take a lot of time,
I think the agencies try to make data files, text or
comma separated data or a file format they can
run a program on.

But chances are the data set is long enough
in most cities that the average for the date or month
should be close to what you want, if only Mother
Nature doesn't decide to give you a hard time.

Much of the northeast US and parts of Canada
seem to be in a cool spell, so that may cause any
data found to be a little on the warm side, hopefully
we will get back up to normal weather before winter
sets in, I need to patch up some exterior paint.

"Jonathon4" wrote in message
...
On Oct 17, 4:34 pm, "I M @ good guy" wrote:

I am not interested in record temperatures. I want the data
representing the coldest 10% of daily lows for each day selected from
data going back many years - so I can get an idea of how cold it might
reasonably be on a given day - many weeks in advance. A record is an
unlikely worst-case scenario that is/was a one-time event. I want a
LIKELY worst case scenario for a given day. It might even be better
that the record low for each day is actually removed from the data.


Estimates of home heating and cooling are possible with "heating degree
days" and "cooling degree days"
Degree day data are at NREL
http://rredc.nrel.gov/solar/pubs/tmy2/comparison.html

On Oct 18, 2:15 am, "bw" wrote:
"Jonathon4" wrote in message

...

On Oct 17, 4:34 pm, "I M @ good guy" wrote:

I am not interested in record temperatures. I want the data
representing the coldest 10% of daily lows for each day selected from
data going back many years - so I can get an idea of how cold it might
reasonably be on a given day - many weeks in advance. A record is an
unlikely worst-case scenario that is/was a one-time event. I want a
LIKELY worst case scenario for a given day. It might even be better
that the record low for each day is actually removed from the data.

Estimates of home heating and cooling are possible with "heating degree
days" and "cooling degree days"
Degree day data are at NRELhttp://rredc.nrel.gov/solar/pubs/tmy2/comparison.html

I read the page, and the data available on the links. Not at all what
I need. Thanks anyway.
Is "mean ext. lows" what I think it is, as described in my post?