MARCH 2010 30-DAY OUTLOOK
410 PM EST Fri. Feb. 26, 2010
Atmospheric patterns, 700 MB and 500 MB height anomalies, statistical
data, and various models, along with observed cases from past such
months and also data from 1895-2000 were used in this forecast.
Equatorial sea surface temperatures anomalies in the equatorial
Pacific are near +1.0C or greater. There has been a lessening in the
positive anomalies across the eastern portion of the basin but this is
typical during this part of the seasonal cycle. Sub-surface ocean
temperature anomalies also remain positive from the surface to a depth
of approximately 150 m from 170E to 100W along the equator across the
Pacific. Expect the warm episode to continue through March 2010.

The NAO index is near neutral and is forecast to trend positive
through day 14. The PNA index is also near neutral and is forecast to
remain positive through day 14. Models are in good agreement on the
500-hpa pattern for March featuring a troughs northeast of Hudson Bay
extending to the Canadian maritime, with another trough west of Alaska
extending to the Gulf of Alaska. A ridge is expected to dominate west-
central North America. A strong subtropical jet is forecast to persist
across the southern part of the nation. Above normal heights are
forecast across the north-central U.S. with below normal heights for
the remainder of the nation.

Above normal temperatures are forecast for the Northwest and the
northwest Rockies. The probability of above normal temperatures for
this area is 57 percent. Below normal temperatures are forecast from
the eastern Plains to the East coast with the exception with northern
New England. The probability of below normal temperatures for this
area is 57 percent. The remainder of the nation is expected to be near
normal with no significant deviation from climatology.
An active southern stream across the southern U.S. will likely cause
above normal precipitation from Arizona eastward across the southern
Plains, the lower Mississippi Valley, the Southeast and portion of the
northern mid-Atlantic. The probability of above normal precipitation
in this area is 57 percent. Below normal precipitation is forecast for
Washington eastward across the northern Rockies and the northern
Plains. The probability of below normal precipitation is 57 percent
The remainder of the nation is expected to be near normal with no
significant deviation from climatology.
Jim Munley Jr.
http://www.jimmunleywx.com