On Sep 23, 10:12*pm, "! 0 B0 Z N.." wrote:
Global Cooling Impacts Being Felt Now

Sep 23 2010

QUOTE: Anna Petherick reporting for Nature.com ( August 27, 2010) recently
reported on the brutal northern winter that was quickly followed in the
southern hemisphere by a viciously cold winter and Antarctic chills killing
millions of aquatic animals in the Amazon.

New study by American solar experts identifies a sharp fall in sunspot
activity since 2007 that fits the hallmarks of a soon arriving ice age.

Solar scientists, not to be confused with climate scientists, study the most
important heat engine driving our planet's temperatures-the sun.

Matthew Penn and William Livingston, solar astronomers with the National
Solar Observatory (NSO) in Tucson, Arizona, have been following a marked
decrease in sunspot activity recently.

Reputable studies link a prolonged drop in sunspot activity to a cooling
epoch or even a potential new ice age as more sunspots correlate with more
global warming, while fewer sunspots are proven to match episodes of
long-term cooling.

Since the formation of the IPCC in 1988 the talk has been about global
warming. But 22 years on the evidence has grown to raise fears of a
catastrophic climate switch in the opposite direction. We look at the
evidence that is raising some very serious questions in the scientific
community.

Zeeman Splitting Technique Raises Solar Alarm

Penn and Livingston used a measuring technique known as Zeeman splitting to
study the magnetic strength of sunspots. The technique measures the distance
between a pair of infrared spectral lines in a spectrograph from the light
emitted by iron atoms in the atmosphere of the sun.

After examining 1500 sunspots they found that the average strength of the
magnetic field of the sunspots has dropped by almost 40 percent in recent
years. The reasons for the decline are unknown, but Penn and Livingston
predict only half of the normal sunspots may appear on the surface of the
Sun by 2021. Below that strength the formation of sunspots becomes almost
impossible.

Other Experts Confirm Fears

Backing up the claims is Australian Geophysicist, Phil Chapman, a former
NASA astronaut. Chapman confirms the historic correlation of sunspots to
global temperatures and points to the dearth of sunspots since 2007 as the
reason why the world has since cooled by about 0.7C.

Writer, Alan Caruba (September 21, 2010) probes the story further after a
June 14 article published in the New Scientist by Stuart Clark.

Caruba reports that Clark, "raised the question of why and where the
sunspots have gone. Noting that they ebb and flow in cycles lasting about
eleven years, Stuart said, "But for the last two years, the sunspots have
mostly been missing. Their absence, the most prolonged in nearly 100 years,
has taken even seasoned sun watchers by surprise."

Return to another Little Ice Age or Worse?

The last time sunspots disappeared altogether, during the Maunder Minimum
(about 1645 to 1715), our planet descended into a lengthy period of cooling
known as the Little Ice Age.

The last major ice age, known as the Younger Dryas happened 12,000 years
ago. That sudden event plunged temperatures in the North Atlantic region to
about 5°C colder with a 1000-year duration.

Global Cooling Impacts Being Felt Now

Today Californians just had the coldest summer in decades.

Last year in the northern hemisphere, Britain suffered one of the worst
winters in 100 years.

While in the US the National Weather Service (NWS) reported that the
bitterly cold winter broke numerous temperature and snow extent records with
the 4th coldest February on record.

New York and much of the US Northeast was pumelled by record snow falls that
deposited about 60cm (2 feet) of snow in NYC alone.

While in New Zealand tens of thousands of lambs have perished in bitter
winter snows.

Worst Snow Falls Since 1970's

Rutgers University Global Snow Lab also confirms that the 2010 Northern
Hemisphere winter snow extent was the second highest on record, at
52,166,840 km2 and second only to February, 1978 which was slightly higher
at 53,647,305 km2.

Are we now seeing the specter of a return to the fears of the 1970s, when
climatologists warned of 'The Cooling World' (Newsweek, April 28, 1975)?

Anna Petherick reporting for Nature.com ( August 27, 2010) recently reported
on the brutal northern winter that was quickly followed in the southern
hemisphere by a viciously cold winter and Antarctic chills killing millions
of aquatic animals in the Amazon.

So will these latest changes in the sun's behavior be a harbinger of more
cold to come?

References:

Edwards L., 'Sunspots could soon disappear for decades: study,' (September
15, 2010), Physorg.com (accessed: September 21, 2010)

Sato, R., 'Is a "Little Ice Age" Imminent? -Maverick Scientists Say "Yes"'
(August 26, 2008), dailygalaxy.com (accessed: September 21, 2010)

Caruba A., 'Casandra Says it Will Get very Cold,' ( September 20, 2010),
Canadafreepress.com (accessed: September 21, 2010)

Penn M., and Livingston W., 'Long-term Evolution of Sunspot Magnetic Fields,'
arXiv:1009.0784v1 [astro-ph.SR]

Felix R., 'Little Ice Age Cometh Sunspots could disappear for decades,'
iceagenow.com (accessed: September, 21, 2010)

Petherick A., 'Cold empties Bolivian rivers of fish,' (August 27, 2010),
Nature.com ( accessed: September 21, 2010).

http://www.suite101.com/content/evid...tists-raise-fe...

Warmest Regards

Bonz0

"It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps
US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists
worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct
from natural variation."

Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville

"It does not matter who you are, or how smart you are, or what title you
have, or how many of you there are, and certainly not how many papers your
side has published, if your prediction is wrong then your hypothesis is
wrong. Period."

Professor Richard Feynman, Nobel Laureate in Physics

"A core problem is that science has given way to ideology. The scientific
method has been dispensed with, or abused, to serve the myth of man-made
global warming."

"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips

"Computer models are built in an almost backwards fashion: The goal is to
show evidence of AGW, and the "scientists" go to work to produce such a
result. When even these models fail to show what advocates want, the data
and interpretations are "fudged" to bring about the desired result"

"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips

"Ocean acidification looks suspiciously like a back-up plan by the
environmental pressure groups in case the climate fails to warm: another try
at condemning fossil fuels!"

http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog...fication-great...

Before attacking hypothetical problems, let us first solve the real problems
that threaten humanity. One single water pump at an equivalent cost of a
couple of solar panels can indeed spare hundreds of Sahel women the daily
journey to the spring and spare many infections and lives.

Martin De Vlieghere, philosopher

"The fact that an opinion has been widely held is no evidence whatever that
it is not utterly absurd; indeed in view of the silliness of the majority of
mankind, a widespread belief is more likely to be foolish than sensible."

Bertrand Russell

Precession of the Equinox.
SEE
http://www.eoearth.org/article/Causes_of_climate_change

Variations in the Earth's Orbital Characteristics

Figure 2: Modification of the timing of aphelion and perihelion over
time (A = today; B = 13,000 years into the future). (Source:
PhysicalGeography.net) The Milankovitch theory suggests that normal
cyclical variations in three of the Earth's orbital characteristics is
probably responsible for some past climatic change. The basic idea
behind this theory assumes that over time these three cyclic events
vary the amount of solar radiation that is received on the Earth's
surface.

The first cyclical variation, known as eccentricity, controls the
shape of the Earth's orbit around the sun. The orbit gradually changes
from being elliptical to being nearly circular and then back to
elliptical in a period of about 100,000 years. The greater the
eccentricity of the orbit (i.e., the more elliptical it is), the
greater the variation in solar energy received at the top of the
atmosphere between the Earth's closest (perihelion) and farthest
(aphelion) approach to the sun. Currently, the Earth is experiencing a
period of low eccentricity. The difference in the Earth's distance
from the sun between perihelion and aphelion (which is only about 3%)
is responsible for approximately a 7% variation in the amount of solar
energy received at the top of the atmosphere. When the difference in
this distance is at its maximum (9%), the difference in solar energy
received is about 20%.

The second cyclical variation results from the fact that as the Earth
rotates on its polar axis, it wobbles like a spinning top changing the
orbital timing of the equinoxes and solstices (see Figure 2). This
effect is known as the precession of the equinox. The precession of
the equinox has a cycle of approximately 26,000 years. According to
illustration A in Figure 2, the Earth is closer to the sun in January
(perihelion) and farther away in July (aphelion) at the present time.
Because of precession, the reverse will be true in 13,000 years and
the Earth will then be closer to the sun in July (illustration B,
Figure 2). This means, of course, that if everything else remains
constant, 13,000 years from now seasonal variations in the Northern
Hemisphere should be greater than at present (colder winters and
warmer summers) because of the closer proximity of the Earth to the
sun.

The third cyclical variation is related to the changes in the tilt
(obliquity) of the Earth's axis of rotation over a 41,000 year period.
During the 41,000 year cycle the tilt can deviate from approximately
22.5 to 24.5°. At the present time, the tilt of the Earth's axis is
23.5°. When the tilt is small there is less climatic variation between
the summer and winter seasons in the middle and high latitudes.
Winters tend to be milder and summers cooler. Warmer winters allow for
more snow to fall in the high-latitude regions. When the atmosphere is
warmer it has a greater ability to hold water vapor and therefore more
snow is produced at areas of frontal or orographic uplift. Cooler
summers cause snow and ice to accumulate on the Earth's surface
because less of this frozen water is melted. Thus, the net effect of a
smaller tilt would be more extensive formation of glaciers in the
polar latitudes.

Periods of a larger tilt result in greater seasonal climatic variation
in the middle and high latitudes. At these times, winters tend to be
colder and summers warmer. Colder winters produce less snow because of
lower atmospheric temperatures. As a result, less snow and ice
accumulates on the ground surface. Moreover, the warmer summers
produced by the larger tilt provide additional energy to melt and
evaporate the snow that fell and accumulated during the winter months.
In conclusion, glaciers in the polar regions should be generally
receding, with other contributing factors constant, during this part
of the obliquity cycle.

Computer models and historical evidence suggest that the Milankovitch
cycles exert their greatest cooling and warming influence when the
troughs and peaks of all three cycles coincide with each other.

Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Variations


Figure 3: The following graph illustrates the rise in atmospheric
carbon dioxide from 1744 to 2005. Note that the increase in carbon
dioxide's concentration in the atmosphere has been exponential during
the period examined. An extrapolation into the immediate future would
suggest continued increases. (Source: PhysicalGeography.net)
Studies of long-term climate change have discovered a connection
between the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and mean
global temperature. Carbon dioxide is one of the more important gases
responsible for the greenhouse effect. Certain atmospheric gases, like
carbon dioxide, water vapor and methane, are able to alter the energy
balance of the Earth by being able to absorb longwave radiation
emitted from the Earth's surface. The net result of this process and
the re-emission of longwave back to the Earth's surface increases the
quantity of heat energy in the Earth's climatic system. Without the
greenhouse effect, the average global temperature of the Earth would
be a cold -18° Celsius rather than the present 15° Celsius.

Researchers of the 1970s CLIMAP project found strong evidence in deep-
ocean sediments of variations in the Earth's global temperature during
the past several hundred thousand years of the Earth's history. Other
subsequent studies have confirmed these findings and have discovered
that these temperature variations were closely correlated to the
concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and variations in
solar radiation received by the planet as controlled by the
Milankovitch cycles. Measurements indicated that atmospheric carbon
dioxide levels were about 30% lower during colder glacial periods. It
was also theorized that the oceans were a major store of carbon
dioxide and that they controlled the movement of this gas to and from
the atmosphere. The amount of carbon dioxide that can be held in
oceans is a function of temperature. Carbon dioxide is released from
the oceans when global temperatures become warmer and diffuses into
the ocean when temperatures are cooler. Initial changes in global
temperature were triggered by changes in received solar radiation by
the Earth through the Milankovitch cycles. The increase in carbon
dioxide then amplified the global warming by enhancing the greenhouse
effect.

Over the past three centuries, the concentration of carbon dioxide has
been increasing in the Earth's atmosphere because of human influences
(Figure 3). Human activities like the combustion of fossil fuels,
conversion of natural prairie to farmland, and deforestation have
caused the release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. From the
early 1700s, carbon dioxide has increased from 280 parts per million
to 380 parts per million in 2005. Many scientists believe that higher
concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will enhance the
greenhouse effect making the planet warmer. Scientists believe we are
already experiencing global warming due to an enhancement of the
greenhouse effect. Most computer climate models suggest that the globe
will warm up by 1.5 - 4.5° Celsius if carbon dioxide reaches the
predicted level of 600 parts per million by the year 2050.

Volcanic Eruptions
For many years, climatologists have noticed a connection between large
explosive volcanic eruptions and short-term climatic change (Figure
4). For example, one of the coldest years in the last two centuries
occurred the year following the Tambora volcanic eruption in 1815.
Accounts of very cold weather were documented in the year following
this eruption in a number of regions across the planet. Several other
major volcanic events also show a pattern of cooler global
temperatures lasting 1 to 3 years after their eruption.


Figure 4: Explosive volcanic eruptions have been shown to have a short-
term cooling effect on the atmosphere if they eject large quantities
of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere. This image shows the eruption
of Mount St. Helens on May 18, 1980 which had a local effect on
climate because of ash reducing the reception of solar radiation on
the Earth's surface. Mount St. Helens had very minimal global effect
on the climate because the eruption occurred at an oblique angle
putting little sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere. (Source: U.S.
Geological Survey, photograph by Austin Post).


Figure 5: Ash column generated by the eruption of Mount Pinatubo on
June 12, 1991. The strongest eruption of Mount Pinatubo occurred three
days later on June 15, 1991. (Source: U.S. Geological Survey).

Initially, scientists thought that the dust emitted into the
atmosphere from large volcanic eruptions was responsible for the
cooling by partially blocking the transmission of solar radiation to
the Earth's surface. However, measurements indicate that most of the
dust thrown in the atmosphere returned to the Earth's surface within
six months. Recent stratospheric data suggests that large explosive
volcanic eruptions also eject large quantities of sulfur dioxide gas
which remains in the atmosphere for as long as three years.
Atmospheric chemists have determined that the ejected sulfur dioxide
gas reacts with water vapor commonly found in the stratosphere to form
a dense optically bright haze layer that reduces the atmospheric
transmission of some of the sun's incoming radiation.

In the last century, two significant climate-modifying eruptions have
occurred. El Chichon in Mexico erupted in April of 1982, and Mount
Pinatubo went off in the Philippines during June, 1991 (Figure 5). Of
these two volcanic events, Mount Pinatubo had a greater effect on the
Earth's climate and ejected about 20 million tons of sulfur dioxide
into the stratosphere (Figure 6). Researchers believe that the
Pinatubo eruption was primarily responsible for the 0.8 degree Celsius
drop in global average air temperature in 1992. The global climatic
effects of the eruption of Mount Pinatubo are believed to have peaked
in late 1993. Satellite data confirmed the connection between the
Mount Pinatubo eruption and the global temperature decrease in 1992
and 1993. The satellite data indicated that the sulfur dioxide plume
from the eruption caused a several percent increase in the amount of
sunlight reflected by the Earth's atmosphere back to space causing the
surface of the planet to cool.



Figure 6: The following satellite image shows the distribution of
Mount Pinatubo's sulfur dioxide and dust aerosol plume (red and yellow
areas) between June 14 and July 26, 1991. Approximately 45 days after
the eruption, the aerosol plume completely circled the Earth around
the equator forming a band 20 to 50° of latitude wide. Areas outside
this band were clear of volcanic aerosols. Within a year, the sulfur
dioxide continued to migrate towards the North and South Pole until it
covered the entire Earth because of the dominant poleward flow of
stratospheric winds (stratospheric winds circulate from the equator to
the polar vortices at the North and South Poles). These observed
patterns of aerosol movement suggest that tropical explosive volcanic
eruptions probably have the greatest effect on the Earth's climate.
Diffusion of aerosols by stratospheric winds from a tropical source
results in the greatest latitudinal coverage of the sulfur dioxide
across both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. (Source: SAGE II
Satellite Project - NASA)

Variations in Solar Output
Until recently, many scientists thought that the sun's output of
radiation only varied by a fraction of a percent over many years.
However, measurements made by satellites equipped with radiometers in
the 1980s and 1990s suggested that the sun's energy output may be more
variable than was once thought (Figure 7). Measurements made during
the early 1980s showed a decrease of 0.1 percent in the total amount
of solar energy reaching the Earth over just an 18 month time period.
If this trend were to extend over several decades, it could influence
global climate. Numerical climatic models predict that a change in
solar output of only 1 percent per century would alter the Earth's
average temperature by between 0.5 to 1.0° Celsius.


Figure 7: Image of the sun taken by the Solar and Heliospheric
Observatory (SOHO) satellite on 14 September 1997. The sun is
essentially the only source of energy for running the Earth's climate.
Thus, any change in its output will result in changes in the reception
of insolation and the generation of heat energy which drives the
climate system. (Source: Solar and Heliospheric Observatory)
Scientists have long tried to also link sunspots to climatic change.
Sunspots are huge magnetic storms that are seen as dark (cooler) areas
on the sun's surface. The number and size of sunspots show cyclical
patterns, reaching a maximum about every 11, 90, and 180 years. The
decrease in solar energy observed in the early 1980s correspond to a
period of maximum sunspot activity based on the 11 year cycle. In
addition, measurements made with a solar telescope from 1976 to 1980
showed that during this period, as the number and size of sunspots
increased, the sun's surface cooled by about 6° Celsius. Apparently,
the sunspots prevented some of the sun's energy from leaving its
surface. However, these findings tend to contradict observations made
on longer times scales. Observations of the sun during the middle of
the Little Ice Age (1650 to 1750) indicated that very little sunspot
activity was occurring on the sun's surface. The Little Ice Age was a
time of a much cooler global climate and some scientists correlate
this occurrence with a reduction in solar activity over a period of 90
or 180 years. Measurements have shown that these 90 and 180 year
cycles influence the amplitude of the 11 year sunspot cycle. It is
hypothesized that during times of low amplitude, like the Maunder
Minimum, the sun's output of radiation is reduced. Observations by
astronomers during this period (1645 to 1715) noticed very little
sunspot activity occurring on the sun.

During periods of maximum sunspot activity, the sun's magnetic field
is strong. When sunspot activity is low, the sun's magnetic field
weakens. The magnetic field of the sun also reverses every 22 years,
during a sunspot minimum. Some scientists believe that the periodic
droughts on the Great Plains of the United States are in someway
correlated with this 22 year cycle.

Further Reading
Mick Kelly, The Causes of Climatic Change, Climatic Research Unit,
School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia
P. Foukal, C. Frohlich, H. Spruit, and T.M.L. Wigley, Variations in
Solar Luminosity and Their Effect on the Earth's Climate, September
14, 2006 Nature, 443: 161-166
Peter A. Stott, S.F.B. Tett, G.S. Jones, M.R. Allen, J.F.B. Mitchell,
and G.J. Jenkins, External Control of 20th Century Temperature by
Natural and Anthropogenic Forcings, December 13, 2000 Science
2133-2137
PhysicalGeography.net
Sydney Levitus, John I. Antonov, Julian Wang, Thomas L. Delworth,
Keith W. Dixon, and Anthony J. Broccoli, Anthropogenic Warming of
Earth's Climate System, April 13, 2001 Science 292: 267-270
Thomas J. Crowley, Causes of Climate Change Over the Past 1000 Years,
July 14, 2000 Science, 289: 270-277
Thomas R. Karl and Kevin E. Trenberth, Modern Global Climate Change,
December 5, 2003 Science, 302: 1719-1723

The Author
Table of Contents 1 Research Interests 2 Current Research Projects 3
Scholarship 4 Education 5 Teaching Interests 6 Contact Information if
(window.showTocToggle) { var tocShowText = "show"; var tocHideText =
"hide"; showTocToggle(); } Research Interests I have general research
interests in the following areas of study: Species interactions in
wetland plant communities. Spatial patterns and community structure in
vegetation. Climate change and its influence on the distribution of
sp
http://www.eoearth.org/article/Causes_of_climate_change