On Apr 13, 5:39*pm, Falcon wrote:
In article de2ee785-5cd2-4908-a437-23253c22ae93









@w9g2000prg.googlegroups.com, JohnM wrote...

On Apr 13, 2:35 pm, Falcon wrote:
In article 95db4a50-35c6-45b8-8cc9-ce012ffea5e1

@z27g2000prz.googlegroups.com, JohnM wrote...

On Apr 12, 10:22 am, Falcon wrote:
In article d47a02bb-592a-4c02-8917-

, Roger Coppock wrote....

On Apr 12, 7:47 am, Falcon wrote:

It's also time-dependent. Roger's not the only one who can draw
pretty graphs, but in this example
http://i55.tinypic.com/iwrg35.png you can see how useful a
linear trend line is, depending on what you want to show. The
data is from Roger's thoughtfully provided source. I added
another trend line that's probably a little more representative
of what's been happening lately.

You're cherrypicking, again R^2=0.0075 means nothing.

So are you. You're using an entire record to show "continued
warming", when clearly, the latest records do not show that it's
"continuing".

Why are you continuing with this "canard" ? The latest records can
show neither warming, cooling or flat, because the scatter about any
trend line drawn, however robust that might be in statistical terms,
is too great to allow meaningful inference.

Data for the last twenty years allows meaningful inference. It shows
warming is highly likely to have taken place. Data for the last
thirty years shows warming to be so likely, that any proposal it has
not warmed would be unthinkable.

Because, as I have said several times, the entire satellite record
shows warming, but the latest data does NOT show "continued warming".

Which is precisely what YOU just said.

What I said was that examining the latest data on its own can neither
show, nor can it not show, anything whatsoever. In other words, it
definitely cannot,"NOT show "continued warming" " It cannot be subjected
to any meaningful analysis in any way shape or form, so no statements can
be made.

You made a statement based on it. You erred in doing so, so fess up
like a man, or alternatively admit you are baffled by the logic of
statistical inference.

Good grief, this is pedantic nonsense. If you're saying that Roger's
subject line is factually incorrect, i.e. that the latest MSU data cannot
be said to show continued warming, any more that they can show that there
has been no warming, or even cooling, then we agree.

As I understand Roger's post, he is saying data shows warming is
continuing from 30 years ago to the present. Even at 20 years it is
possible make an equivalent statement. On any shorter time frame, no
statement can be made.

That much should have
been patently obvious. The sole reason for my response was that the subject
line is misleading.

Indeed he missed some vital qualifying words from his title. That
should have been rectified, but he chose not to. You are similar in
that regard when you omit important qualifiers to analyses.

On Apr 15, 5:33*am, JohnM wrote:
On Apr 13, 5:39*pm, Falcon wrote:





In article de2ee785-5cd2-4908-a437-23253c22ae93

@w9g2000prg.googlegroups.com, JohnM wrote...

On Apr 13, 2:35 pm, Falcon wrote:
In article 95db4a50-35c6-45b8-8cc9-ce012ffea5e1

@z27g2000prz.googlegroups.com, JohnM wrote...

On Apr 12, 10:22 am, Falcon wrote:
In article d47a02bb-592a-4c02-8917-

, Roger Coppock wrote....

On Apr 12, 7:47 am, Falcon wrote:

It's also time-dependent. Roger's not the only one who can draw
pretty graphs, but in this example
http://i55.tinypic.com/iwrg35.png you can see how useful a
linear trend line is, depending on what you want to show. The
data is from Roger's thoughtfully provided source. I added
another trend line that's probably a little more representative
of what's been happening lately.

You're cherrypicking, again R^2=0.0075 means nothing.

So are you. You're using an entire record to show "continued
warming", when clearly, the latest records do not show that it's
"continuing".

Why are you continuing with this "canard" ? The latest records can
show neither warming, cooling or flat, because the scatter about any
trend line drawn, however robust that might be in statistical terms,
is too great to allow meaningful inference.

Data for the last twenty years allows meaningful inference. It shows
warming is highly likely to have taken place. Data for the last
thirty years shows warming to be so likely, that any proposal it has
not warmed would be unthinkable.

Because, as I have said several times, the entire satellite record
shows warming, but the latest data does NOT show "continued warming".

Which is precisely what YOU just said.

What I said was that examining the latest data on its own can neither
show, nor can it not show, anything whatsoever. In other words, it
definitely cannot,"NOT show "continued warming" " It cannot be subjected
to any meaningful analysis in any way shape or form, so no statements can
be made.

You made a statement based on it. You erred in doing so, so fess up
like a man, or alternatively admit you are baffled by the logic of
statistical inference.

Good grief, this is pedantic nonsense. If you're saying that Roger's
subject line is factually incorrect, i.e. that the latest MSU data cannot
be said to show continued warming, any more that they can show that there
has been no warming, or even cooling, then we agree.

As I understand Roger's post, he is saying data shows warming is
continuing from 30 years ago to the present. Even at 20 years it is
possible make an equivalent statement. On any shorter time frame, no
statement can be made.

That much should have
been patently obvious. The sole reason for my response was that the subject
line is misleading.

Indeed he missed some vital qualifying words from his title. That
should have been rectified, but he chose not to. You are similar in
that regard when you omit important qualifiers to analyses.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

............and there's the spin.

On Apr 14, 11:07*pm, Tom P wrote:
On 04/13/2011 09:23 AM, matt_sykes wrote:





On Apr 12, 6:25 pm, Tom *wrote:
On 04/12/2011 05:44 PM, matt_sykes wrote:

On Apr 12, 3:41 pm, Tom * *wrote:
On 04/12/2011 09:45 AM, matt_sykes wrote:

On Apr 12, 1:39 am, Roger * * *wrote:
The satellite record, in all its current interpretations,
shows that the air near the surface is warming.
For background on the satellite temperature proxy please see:http://en..wikipedia.org/wiki/Satell...e_measurements

The URL below is one of the more conservative records
from the University of Alabama at Huntsville.http://vortex.nsstc.uah..edu/public/.../tltglhmam_5.4
The global data are graphed hehttp://members.cox.net/rcoppock/UAH-MSU.jpg

The Remote Sensing Systems Lower Troposphere (TLT) analysis also
shows a temperature rise above the surface of the land and sea.http://www..remss.com/data/msu/month...onthly_MSU_AMS...
The data from 82.5N to 70S are graphed hehttp://members.cox.net/rcoppock/RSS-MSU.jpg

Roger, its not 'continued warming'. *Warming stopped. *Sticking a red
line on a scatter plot does not mean its still warming.

Its clear fro the graph that its currently as warm as 1980. *How is
that continued?

If you pick and choose the numbers, you can get anything you like.
Obviously you prefer your version.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

I dont prefer anything (actually, a bit warmer might be quite
pleasant) . *I just want the truth.

Today it's colder here than it was yesterday. Does that prove anything?- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

I just want the truth.

Looking at your other posts, I have my doubts.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Well dont doubt, believe it since it is the truth.

On 04/14/2011 02:54 AM, Peter Franks wrote:
On 4/13/2011 5:43 PM, ShyDavid wrote:
On Wed, 13 Apr 2011 15:29:28 -0700, Peter
wrote:

On 4/11/2011 4:39 PM, Roger Coppock wrote:
The satellite record, in all its current interpretations,
shows that the air near the surface is warming.
For background on the satellite temperature proxy please see:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satelli...e_measurements

The URL below is one of the more conservative records
from the University of Alabama at Huntsville.
http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/public/m.../tltglhmam_5.4
The global data are graphed he
http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/UAH-MSU.jpg

The Remote Sensing Systems Lower Troposphere (TLT) analysis also
shows a temperature rise above the surface of the land and sea.
http://www.remss.com/data/msu/monthl...cean_v03_3.txt

The data from 82.5N to 70S are graphed he
http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/RSS-MSU.jpg

The data do NOT show a continued warming. THEY SHOW INCREASING COOLING,
WITH THE MOST RECENT DATA POINTS BEING BELOW NORMAL!!!

No. And since your graphs (below) show Earth is still warming, one
has got to wonder what the bloody hell you could possibly be lying
for.

http://members.cox.net/peter.franks/UAH-MSU.jpg

http://members.cox.net/peter.franks/RSS-MSU.jpg

How does it show the earth is still warming?

You can get a reasonably accurate fit of the temperature anomaly since
1979 by fitting a linear plus sinusoidal function to the data.
You get a linear trend of 0.14/decade plus a sinusoidal with a cycle of
3.73 years and half amplitude of about 0.13°c.
http://tinypic.com/r/10e4iac/7

Right now we are on the downward swing of the sinusoidal but it will
return to a maximum in 2013-2014.

On Apr 15, 10:20*am, Tom P wrote:
On 04/14/2011 02:54 AM, Peter Franks wrote:





On 4/13/2011 5:43 PM, ShyDavid wrote:
On Wed, 13 Apr 2011 15:29:28 -0700, Peter
wrote:

On 4/11/2011 4:39 PM, Roger Coppock wrote:
The satellite record, in all its current interpretations,
shows that the air near the surface is warming.
For background on the satellite temperature proxy please see:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satelli...e_measurements

The URL below is one of the more conservative records
from the University of Alabama at Huntsville.
http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/public/m.../tltglhmam_5.4
The global data are graphed he
http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/UAH-MSU.jpg

The Remote Sensing Systems Lower Troposphere (TLT) analysis also
shows a temperature rise above the surface of the land and sea.
http://www.remss.com/data/msu/monthl...onthly_MSU_AMS....

The data from 82.5N to 70S are graphed he
http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/RSS-MSU.jpg

The data do NOT show a continued warming. THEY SHOW INCREASING COOLING,
WITH THE MOST RECENT DATA POINTS BEING BELOW NORMAL!!!

No. And since your graphs (below) show Earth is still warming, one
has got to wonder what the bloody hell you could possibly be lying
for.

http://members.cox.net/peter.franks/UAH-MSU.jpg

http://members.cox.net/peter.franks/RSS-MSU.jpg

How does it show the earth is still warming?

You can get a reasonably accurate fit of the temperature anomaly since
1979 by fitting a linear plus sinusoidal function to the data.
You get a linear trend of 0.14/decade plus a sinusoidal with a cycle of
3.73 years and half amplitude of about 0.13 c.http://tinypic.com/r/10e4iac/7

Right now we are on the downward swing of the sinusoidal but it will
return to a maximum in 2013-2014.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Yes, thanks John. What we are seeing there is mainly ENSO noise around
a warming signal. The troughs, with the most recent, as you say, at
present, generally represent the La Ninas. If you look at the
temperature trend, joining all the troughs, there is a clear message
and it's one which has allowed me to ask a difficult question of the
climate deniers as a result. La Ninas are effectively getting warmer.
The question is; "why", when other forcings, during previous La Ninas
have not been all negative, as they afre at present.

On 4/15/2011 2:20 AM, Tom P wrote:
On 04/14/2011 02:54 AM, Peter Franks wrote:
On 4/13/2011 5:43 PM, ShyDavid wrote:
On Wed, 13 Apr 2011 15:29:28 -0700, Peter
wrote:

On 4/11/2011 4:39 PM, Roger Coppock wrote:
The satellite record, in all its current interpretations,
shows that the air near the surface is warming.
For background on the satellite temperature proxy please see:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satelli...e_measurements

The URL below is one of the more conservative records
from the University of Alabama at Huntsville.
http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/public/m.../tltglhmam_5.4
The global data are graphed he
http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/UAH-MSU.jpg

The Remote Sensing Systems Lower Troposphere (TLT) analysis also
shows a temperature rise above the surface of the land and sea.
http://www.remss.com/data/msu/monthl...cean_v03_3.txt


The data from 82.5N to 70S are graphed he
http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/RSS-MSU.jpg

The data do NOT show a continued warming. THEY SHOW INCREASING COOLING,
WITH THE MOST RECENT DATA POINTS BEING BELOW NORMAL!!!

No. And since your graphs (below) show Earth is still warming, one
has got to wonder what the bloody hell you could possibly be lying
for.

http://members.cox.net/peter.franks/UAH-MSU.jpg

http://members.cox.net/peter.franks/RSS-MSU.jpg

How does it show the earth is still warming?

You can get a reasonably accurate fit of the temperature anomaly since
1979 by fitting a linear plus sinusoidal function to the data.
You get a linear trend of 0.14/decade plus a sinusoidal with a cycle of
3.73 years and half amplitude of about 0.13°c.
http://tinypic.com/r/10e4iac/7

Right now we are on the downward swing of the sinusoidal but it will
return to a maximum in 2013-2014.

That's your linear model.

The data itself shows something different, and definitely NOT continued
warming. It may warm again, in the future, or it may not, but in the
meantime, "Latest Satellite MSU Data Show Continued Warming" is patently
false.

Notice how Roger can't even defend his own post.

On Apr 15, 8:42*am, Peter Franks wrote:
On 4/15/2011 2:20 AM, Tom P wrote:



On 04/14/2011 02:54 AM, Peter Franks wrote:
On 4/13/2011 5:43 PM, ShyDavid wrote:
On Wed, 13 Apr 2011 15:29:28 -0700, Peter
wrote:

On 4/11/2011 4:39 PM, Roger Coppock wrote:
The satellite record, in all its current interpretations,
shows that the air near the surface is warming.
For background on the satellite temperature proxy please see:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satelli...e_measurements

The URL below is one of the more conservative records
from the University of Alabama at Huntsville.
http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/public/m.../tltglhmam_5.4
The global data are graphed he
http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/UAH-MSU.jpg

The Remote Sensing Systems Lower Troposphere (TLT) analysis also
shows a temperature rise above the surface of the land and sea.
http://www.remss.com/data/msu/monthl...onthly_MSU_AMS...

The data from 82.5N to 70S are graphed he
http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/RSS-MSU.jpg

The data do NOT show a continued warming. THEY SHOW INCREASING COOLING,
WITH THE MOST RECENT DATA POINTS BEING BELOW NORMAL!!!

No. And since your graphs (below) show Earth is still warming, one
has got to wonder what the bloody hell you could possibly be lying
for.

http://members.cox.net/peter.franks/UAH-MSU.jpg

http://members.cox.net/peter.franks/RSS-MSU.jpg

How does it show the earth is still warming?

You can get a reasonably accurate fit of the temperature anomaly since
1979 by fitting a linear plus sinusoidal function to the data.
You get a linear trend of 0.14/decade plus a sinusoidal with a cycle of
3.73 years and half amplitude of about 0.13 c.
http://tinypic.com/r/10e4iac/7

Right now we are on the downward swing of the sinusoidal but it will
return to a maximum in 2013-2014.

That's your linear model.

The data itself shows something different, and definitely NOT continued
warming. *It may warm again, in the future, or it may not, but in the
meantime, "Latest Satellite MSU Data Show Continued Warming" is patently
false.

Notice how Roger can't even defend his own post.

ø What do you expect from the Jackass?

—*—
ø Roger the Dodger has lost it.
No sense
No brains
No nothing at all!

On 4/15/2011 6:30 AM, wrote:
On Apr 15, 8:42 am, Peter wrote:
On 4/15/2011 2:20 AM, Tom P wrote:



On 04/14/2011 02:54 AM, Peter Franks wrote:
On 4/13/2011 5:43 PM, ShyDavid wrote:
On Wed, 13 Apr 2011 15:29:28 -0700, Peter
wrote:

On 4/11/2011 4:39 PM, Roger Coppock wrote:
The satellite record, in all its current interpretations,
shows that the air near the surface is warming.
For background on the satellite temperature proxy please see:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satelli...e_measurements

The URL below is one of the more conservative records
from the University of Alabama at Huntsville.
http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/public/m.../tltglhmam_5.4
The global data are graphed he
http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/UAH-MSU.jpg

The Remote Sensing Systems Lower Troposphere (TLT) analysis also
shows a temperature rise above the surface of the land and sea.
http://www.remss.com/data/msu/monthl...onthly_MSU_AMS...

The data from 82.5N to 70S are graphed he
http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/RSS-MSU.jpg

The data do NOT show a continued warming. THEY SHOW INCREASING COOLING,
WITH THE MOST RECENT DATA POINTS BEING BELOW NORMAL!!!

No. And since your graphs (below) show Earth is still warming, one
has got to wonder what the bloody hell you could possibly be lying
for.

http://members.cox.net/peter.franks/UAH-MSU.jpg

http://members.cox.net/peter.franks/RSS-MSU.jpg

How does it show the earth is still warming?

You can get a reasonably accurate fit of the temperature anomaly since
1979 by fitting a linear plus sinusoidal function to the data.
You get a linear trend of 0.14/decade plus a sinusoidal with a cycle of
3.73 years and half amplitude of about 0.13 c.
http://tinypic.com/r/10e4iac/7

Right now we are on the downward swing of the sinusoidal but it will
return to a maximum in 2013-2014.

That's your linear model.

The data itself shows something different, and definitely NOT continued
warming. It may warm again, in the future, or it may not, but in the
meantime, "Latest Satellite MSU Data Show Continued Warming" is patently
false.

Notice how Roger can't even defend his own post.

ø What do you expect from the Jackass?

— —
ø Roger the Dodger has lost it.
No sense
No brains
No nothing at all!

NOTHING!

On 04/15/2011 02:03 PM, Dawlish wrote:
On Apr 15, 10:20 am, Tom wrote:
On 04/14/2011 02:54 AM, Peter Franks wrote:





On 4/13/2011 5:43 PM, ShyDavid wrote:
On Wed, 13 Apr 2011 15:29:28 -0700, Peter
wrote:

On 4/11/2011 4:39 PM, Roger Coppock wrote:
The satellite record, in all its current interpretations,
shows that the air near the surface is warming.
For background on the satellite temperature proxy please see:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satelli...e_measurements

The URL below is one of the more conservative records
from the University of Alabama at Huntsville.
http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/public/m.../tltglhmam_5.4
The global data are graphed he
http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/UAH-MSU.jpg

The Remote Sensing Systems Lower Troposphere (TLT) analysis also
shows a temperature rise above the surface of the land and sea.
http://www.remss.com/data/msu/monthl...onthly_MSU_AMS....

The data from 82.5N to 70S are graphed he
http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/RSS-MSU.jpg

The data do NOT show a continued warming. THEY SHOW INCREASING COOLING,
WITH THE MOST RECENT DATA POINTS BEING BELOW NORMAL!!!

No. And since your graphs (below) show Earth is still warming, one
has got to wonder what the bloody hell you could possibly be lying
for.

http://members.cox.net/peter.franks/UAH-MSU.jpg

http://members.cox.net/peter.franks/RSS-MSU.jpg

How does it show the earth is still warming?

You can get a reasonably accurate fit of the temperature anomaly since
1979 by fitting a linear plus sinusoidal function to the data.
You get a linear trend of 0.14/decade plus a sinusoidal with a cycle of
3.73 years and half amplitude of about 0.13 c.http://tinypic.com/r/10e4iac/7

Right now we are on the downward swing of the sinusoidal but it will
return to a maximum in 2013-2014.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Yes, thanks John. What we are seeing there is mainly ENSO noise around
a warming signal. The troughs, with the most recent, as you say, at
present, generally represent the La Ninas. If you look at the
temperature trend, joining all the troughs, there is a clear message
and it's one which has allowed me to ask a difficult question of the
climate deniers as a result. La Ninas are effectively getting warmer.
The question is; "why", when other forcings, during previous La Ninas
have not been all negative, as they afre at present.

Here's another fit - http://tinypic.com/r/28qzyp3/7
The periodic function is a sawtooth with a base period of 3.47 years in
1979 which exponentially declines (factor 3 = -0,002) to 3.9 years at 2012.
The correlation is 73%. The linear component remains 0.135/decade.

The curve fit was implemented in OpenOffice using the Sun Microsystems
Solver For Non-linear Programming 0.9.

On 04/15/2011 02:42 PM, Peter Franks wrote:
On 4/15/2011 2:20 AM, Tom P wrote:
On 04/14/2011 02:54 AM, Peter Franks wrote:
On 4/13/2011 5:43 PM, ShyDavid wrote:
On Wed, 13 Apr 2011 15:29:28 -0700, Peter
wrote:

On 4/11/2011 4:39 PM, Roger Coppock wrote:
The satellite record, in all its current interpretations,
shows that the air near the surface is warming.
For background on the satellite temperature proxy please see:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satelli...e_measurements

The URL below is one of the more conservative records
from the University of Alabama at Huntsville.
http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/public/m.../tltglhmam_5.4
The global data are graphed he
http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/UAH-MSU.jpg

The Remote Sensing Systems Lower Troposphere (TLT) analysis also
shows a temperature rise above the surface of the land and sea.
http://www.remss.com/data/msu/monthl...cean_v03_3.txt



The data from 82.5N to 70S are graphed he
http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/RSS-MSU.jpg

The data do NOT show a continued warming. THEY SHOW INCREASING
COOLING,
WITH THE MOST RECENT DATA POINTS BEING BELOW NORMAL!!!

No. And since your graphs (below) show Earth is still warming, one
has got to wonder what the bloody hell you could possibly be lying
for.

http://members.cox.net/peter.franks/UAH-MSU.jpg

http://members.cox.net/peter.franks/RSS-MSU.jpg

How does it show the earth is still warming?

You can get a reasonably accurate fit of the temperature anomaly since
1979 by fitting a linear plus sinusoidal function to the data.
You get a linear trend of 0.14/decade plus a sinusoidal with a cycle of
3.73 years and half amplitude of about 0.13°c.
http://tinypic.com/r/10e4iac/7

Right now we are on the downward swing of the sinusoidal but it will
return to a maximum in 2013-2014.

That's your linear model.

The data itself shows something different, and definitely NOT continued
warming. It may warm again, in the future, or it may not, but in the
meantime, "Latest Satellite MSU Data Show Continued Warming" is patently
false.

Notice how Roger can't even defend his own post.

The calculation shows how all 30 years of measured data can be modelled
with an accuracy of 70% correlation as a sum of a cyclic component plus
a linear component.
Now tell us again about why you ignore 90% of the data.