"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

"Nigel Morgan" wrote in message
...
On 8 Oct 2005 01:18:33 -0700, inspired by Deep
Thought
wrote:

cut

I think there will be a lot of snow - particularly so in
south-western areas e.g. Wiltshire & Devon - as there was in 1978/79 as
Atalntic
lows ran into the very cold continental air forced west by the blocking
High.


There's a chap at Haytor still sawing logs like crazy ....

:-)

Will.

It's going to be one large gazebo by the time you've finished, Will :-)

Jon.

Keith (Southend) wrote:

With all this fuss about the impending 'cold' winter I wonder if we
could lay all the cards on the table as to the rational behind this
forcast?

Apart from the predicted -ve NAO due to a cold SST to the south of
Newfoundland and an active hurricane season, one correlation that
doesn't stack up to me, I just don't get it and I thought after a number
of years frequenting this newsgroup I'd picked up a few ideas. Even
Will's becoming a 'tease' :-)

I've wintnessed a raft of Autumn scenarios all that supposedly pointed
to a cold winter, then come the middle of December zonality takes over.
I just don't see it myself.

So what's it all about? (Alfy)


My memories of the use of SST anomalies go back almost 40 years so some of
the explanations may be a bit flaky. This was all before NAO became
fashionable, although measures of zonality were used - which amounts to
much the same thing.

The reason for the importance of the anomaly in the region south of the
Grand Banks was explained as being the main spawning ground of Atlantic
depressions. It is the area where the North Atlantic Drift and Labrador
current meet, providing a source of warm water and strong thermal contrast.
If this area is warmer than normal, Atlantic depressions become more
vigorous, cooler and they are weaker than normal.

The SST anomalies for many years were analysed and grouped into several
types. The pressure patterns for subsequent months were then analysed and
anomalies produced. Charts of the mean anomalies for each SST pattern were
produced. These included isopleths indicating the areas of highest
statistical significance. At the long-range-forecast conference the SST
anomaly matching the current month's anomaly was selected and the next
month's associated pressure anomaly was used as one of the guides to the
monthly forecast.

Here are a few patterns I remember:

Warm pool:
As mentioned above, this produces depressions more vigorous than usual. The
shape of the pool is important. If elliptical with an E-W long axis, there
will be more westerlies than usual. This can be similar to a zonal pattern.
Without this E-W long axis, the low pressure tends to be further to the NW,
over the Norwegian Sea, and the UK is affected by NW'lies. Both cases would
give a positive NAO but the latter can give cold winters - at least it did
in the sixties but I'm not sure this is possible any more.

Cold pool:
Atlantic lows are weaker. A positive pressure anomaly is situated over
Iceland with low over the Azores. 1962-3 is the classic case of this
pattern. If the pool has an E-W long axis, the high anomaly becomes a belt
from Greenland into northern Europe and Russia. This may give cold
easterlies over the UK but variations could bring mild air from the
Mediterranean.

Zonal:
A belt of warm water from the south of the Grand Banks eastward with a belt
of cold water from Labrador to the UK. Leads to an E-W belt of low pressure
between Iceland and Scotland with strong, cyclonic, westerlies over the UK.
May be expected to give wet weather but the colder water to the west of the
UK can limit precipitation. This sort of pattern would become a permanent
feature if the NAD were to close down so bitterly cold easterly winters
would be even more unlikely than they are now!

As I said, these descriptions are based on memories over 30 years old so
should be taken with a pinch of salt. Also, the patterns vary depending on
the time of year due to the changing wavelengths of the upper-air patterns
- most of the descriptions apply to winter though those patterns with E-W
long axes should more consistent through the year. Also, the SST regime and
atmosphere have changed over the past 30 years and I don't see the patterns
working as well as they used to.


--
Graham Davis
Bracknell

Graham P Davis wrote:

Graham,

Thankyou for that in depth explanation of the 'observed' effects the
SST's can/may have on our weather, I've saved that post so I can digest
it further. Although I'm sure these are many other factors to the whole
equation, I'm sure the SST's hold a large percentage to the overall effect.

Would I be correct in saying that the SST anomaly has the effect on the
weather at that time, or is it a knock on effect, eg a cool pool south
of the Grand Banks now, may determine the weather type in December say?
I ask this because I beleive that the Met Office based it's earlier
forecast on the May 2005 SST's, which seemed strange to me.

I was also wondering what effect the receeding ice sheets of the Arctic
have on the SST's and the position of the jet streams. One could imagine
that these would migrate further north leaving the UK in a dryer regime.
Azores high further north leading to more Northwesterly type weather or
conversely, pressure higher to the south of the UK, possibly leading to
more easterlies in some years.

I must add, I am not here to critise any such long range forecast, just
trying to understand the mechanics and dynamics from where it was
derrived. I guess we all strive to understand the complexity of our
weather and hope to find holy grail one day. :-)

Thanks for all the posts on this thread.
--
Keith (Southend)

'Weather Home & Abroad'
http://www.southendweather.net

"Graham P Davis" wrote in message
...
Keith (Southend) wrote:

With all this fuss about the impending 'cold' winter I wonder if we
could lay all the cards on the table as to the rational behind this
forcast?

Apart from the predicted -ve NAO due to a cold SST to the south of
Newfoundland and an active hurricane season, one correlation that
doesn't stack up to me, I just don't get it and I thought after a number
of years frequenting this newsgroup I'd picked up a few ideas. Even
Will's becoming a 'tease' :-)

I've wintnessed a raft of Autumn scenarios all that supposedly pointed
to a cold winter, then come the middle of December zonality takes over.
I just don't see it myself.

So what's it all about? (Alfy)


My memories of the use of SST anomalies go back almost 40 years so some of
the explanations may be a bit flaky. This was all before NAO became
fashionable, although measures of zonality were used - which amounts to
much the same thing.

The reason for the importance of the anomaly in the region south of the
Grand Banks was explained as being the main spawning ground of Atlantic
depressions. It is the area where the North Atlantic Drift and Labrador
current meet, providing a source of warm water and strong thermal
contrast.
If this area is warmer than normal, Atlantic depressions become more
vigorous, cooler and they are weaker than normal.

The SST anomalies for many years were analysed and grouped into several
types. The pressure patterns for subsequent months were then analysed and
anomalies produced. Charts of the mean anomalies for each SST pattern were
produced. These included isopleths indicating the areas of highest
statistical significance. At the long-range-forecast conference the SST
anomaly matching the current month's anomaly was selected and the next
month's associated pressure anomaly was used as one of the guides to the
monthly forecast.

Here are a few patterns I remember:

Warm pool:
As mentioned above, this produces depressions more vigorous than usual.
The
shape of the pool is important. If elliptical with an E-W long axis, there
will be more westerlies than usual. This can be similar to a zonal
pattern.
Without this E-W long axis, the low pressure tends to be further to the
NW,
over the Norwegian Sea, and the UK is affected by NW'lies. Both cases
would
give a positive NAO but the latter can give cold winters - at least it did
in the sixties but I'm not sure this is possible any more.

Cold pool:
Atlantic lows are weaker. A positive pressure anomaly is situated over
Iceland with low over the Azores. 1962-3 is the classic case of this
pattern. If the pool has an E-W long axis, the high anomaly becomes a belt
from Greenland into northern Europe and Russia. This may give cold
easterlies over the UK but variations could bring mild air from the
Mediterranean.

Zonal:
A belt of warm water from the south of the Grand Banks eastward with a
belt
of cold water from Labrador to the UK. Leads to an E-W belt of low
pressure
between Iceland and Scotland with strong, cyclonic, westerlies over the
UK.
May be expected to give wet weather but the colder water to the west of
the
UK can limit precipitation. This sort of pattern would become a permanent
feature if the NAD were to close down so bitterly cold easterly winters
would be even more unlikely than they are now!

As I said, these descriptions are based on memories over 30 years old so
should be taken with a pinch of salt. Also, the patterns vary depending on
the time of year due to the changing wavelengths of the upper-air patterns
- most of the descriptions apply to winter though those patterns with E-W
long axes should more consistent through the year. Also, the SST regime
and
atmosphere have changed over the past 30 years and I don't see the
patterns
working as well as they used to.




A very interesting an informed summary. Presumably, this applies to winter
but did you have a similar explanation for summer?

The reason I am asking is that analysis of:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/OT...chive2002.html

shows that the SST anomaly for virtually the entire "summer" (JJA) period of
2003, was extensively and significantly -ve over virtually the entire
Atlantic in a W-E band from the West of Ireland to the Newfoundland coast,
although it did reduce somewhat towards the end of the period. I wonder how,
if at all, that is connected to the development of the type of pressure
pattern that lead to the European heatwave of those months?

This years SST pattern in that area has been completely different and
although fairly hot, humid weather has been a feature of part of Western
Europe, I gather from others that it has been far from this in many other
regions.

--
Pete

Please take my dog out twice to e-mail

---------------------------------------------------------------
The views expressed above are entirely those of the writer and
do not represent the views, policy or understanding of any
other person or official body.
---------------------------------------------------------------

Pete B wrote:


As I said, these descriptions are based on memories over 30 years old so
should be taken with a pinch of salt. Also, the patterns vary depending
on the time of year due to the changing wavelengths of the upper-air
patterns - most of the descriptions apply to winter though those patterns
with E-W long axes should more consistent through the year. Also, the SST
regime and
atmosphere have changed over the past 30 years and I don't see the
patterns
working as well as they used to.




A very interesting an informed summary. Presumably, this applies to winter
but did you have a similar explanation for summer?


The system also applied to Summer but I can't remember the patterns
associated with each month. As I said above, they do vary.

The reason I am asking is that analysis of:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/OT...chive2002.html

shows that the SST anomaly for virtually the entire "summer" (JJA) period
of 2003, was extensively and significantly -ve over virtually the entire
Atlantic in a W-E band from the West of Ireland to the Newfoundland coast,
although it did reduce somewhat towards the end of the period. I wonder
how, if at all, that is connected to the development of the type of
pressure pattern that lead to the European heatwave of those months?

I remember at the time not being able to make a connection between the SST
anomalies and the weather we experienced. I can't access the site you refer
to but that at http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/climo_2003.html
doesn't have the cold water extending all the way to Ireland. Looking at
the anomalies I think I might have expected an unsettled, westerly type of
weather.

Another problem I see with trying to use these anomalies is that they are
based on different normals to those used forty years ago. Then we were
using normals based on a period ending in 1960. I believe they were
long-period normals, possibly a hundred years or so. The normals at the
above site are based on data from 1984-93 with some data removed from 91
and 92. Other sites may be using different normals. For this system to work
properly the base SST and atmospheric data should be from the same period.
The next problem would be whether a long period should be used or a
shorter, more recent period limited to the time when satellite data was
available.



--
Graham Davis
Bracknell