"Stuart Robinson" wrote in
:

TS Vince was just upgraded to a CAT1 hurricane in the 21Z Forecast
Advsiory posted by the NHC

I'm sure the global warming protagonists will jump on this one!

Richard

Richard Dixon wrote:

I'm sure the global warming protagonists will jump on this one!


*grin* .. possibly, but I wonder if this has anything to do with (A)GW
seeing that the SST are well below "regular" hurricane-forming
conditions. I wonder what conditions *did* exist to form Vince...

--
Rich

"Stuart Robinson" wrote in
:

Also to note.... in Europe we base our sustained wind speeds on a 10
minutes average - were for hurricanes it is taken for 1 minute
average. So by Euro standards this would not have hurricane force
winds (just below in fact)

I will be interesting to see what the (10 min) sustained winds that are
reported on the Portugese coast.

There's typically a 0.88 factor* between the 10-min and 1-min sustained
winds so any sustained wind reports of 56 knots or greater reported in
Portugal would be around the 1-minute "NHC" sustained hurricane force.

Richard

* I usually refer to section 2.2 for sustained wind conversion:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/~chu/chap6/se200.htm

The USAF are very unlikely to fly a plane to investigate Vince, after all,
what US property is threatened?. More like a job for the UK Met Office and
their research aircraft, except it will probably take a week to get it
ready, by which time Vince will be just a memory. It should also be
remembered that there are no measured winds or pressures to verify that this
was a hurricane.

--
Bernard Burton
Wokingham, Berkshire, UK.

Satellite images at:
www.btinternet.com/~wokingham.weather/wwp.html
"Stuart Robinson" wrote in message
...
The NHC Jurisdiction ends at 15W as does the GFDL model which has been the
best Hurricane performer during 2005. UKMO and GFS all dissipate this
system
within 36 hours into the South East moving cold front - however none of
these models started with the hurricane in place - both were looking at a
1003mb low.

I do wonder if .... the USAF will fly a pane into this and drop a sonde,
not
least to prove that it actually a warm cored system with hurricane force
winds.

Also to note.... in Europe we base our sustained wind speeds on a 10
minutes
average - were for hurricanes it is taken for 1 minute average. So by Euro
standards this would not have hurricane force winds (just below in fact)

//Stuart Robinson
TORRO

PS I looks at chasing this, aiming for Vido in N.W. Spain - but the cost
of
the flights were just unreal !




"Jon O'Rourke" wrote in message
...
"Stuart Robinson" wrote in message
...
TS Vince was just upgraded to a CAT1 hurricane in the 21Z Forecast
Advsiory
posted by the NHC

I was wondering where the NHC's jurisdiction ends, so to speak. IIRC a
few
years ago they passed the responsibility over to the Met Office for one
particular storm system - it went something like "for future updates see
the
Shipping Forecast" !

Jon.

On 10 Oct 2005 08:25:41 GMT, Richard Dixon
wrote:

"Stuart Robinson" wrote in
:

Also to note.... in Europe we base our sustained wind speeds on a 10
minutes average - were for hurricanes it is taken for 1 minute
average. So by Euro standards this would not have hurricane force
winds (just below in fact)

I will be interesting to see what the (10 min) sustained winds that are
reported on the Portugese coast.

There's typically a 0.88 factor* between the 10-min and 1-min sustained
winds so any sustained wind reports of 56 knots or greater reported in
Portugal would be around the 1-minute "NHC" sustained hurricane force.

Richard

* I usually refer to section 2.2 for sustained wind conversion:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/~chu/chap6/se200.htm

I agree; the Saffir-Simpson scale uses the one minute mean wind speed
so, when deciding if this system was or was not a hurricane, European
agencies should convert any measured 10 minute wind speeds to the one
minute mean - not the other way round.

--
Dave

Keith (Southend) wrote:


Unsurprisingly, todays European past 12 hours synops throws up Funchal,
Madiera as the wettest location with 22.0mm between 6am and 6pm today.


24 hour total to 6am this morning was 37.0mm at Funchal, Madiera.
--
Keith (Southend)

'Weather Home & Abroad'
http://www.southendweather.net

Keith (Southend) wrote:
Keith (Southend) wrote:


Unsurprisingly, todays European past 12 hours synops throws up
Funchal, Madiera as the wettest location with 22.0mm between 6am and
6pm today.


24 hour total to 6am this morning was 37.0mm at Funchal, Madiera.


http://217.160.75.104/pics/bracka.gif

Vince shown up on tonight FAX chart.
--
Keith (Southend)

'Weather Home & Abroad'
http://www.southendweather.net

Keith (Southend) wrote:
Keith (Southend) wrote:

Keith (Southend) wrote:


Unsurprisingly, todays European past 12 hours synops throws up
Funchal, Madiera as the wettest location with 22.0mm between 6am and
6pm today.


24 hour total to 6am this morning was 37.0mm at Funchal, Madiera.



http://217.160.75.104/pics/bracka.gif

Vince shown up on tonight FAX chart.


- before getting caught up in that CF and coming straight at us in the
t+36 Could be interesting. (:

Les
--
Les Crossan,
Wallsend, Tyne & Wear
54.95N 1.5W
Home of the Wallsend StormCam and the Backup USW FAQ -
www.uksevereweather.org.uk

Keith (Southend) wrote:
Keith (Southend) wrote:
Keith (Southend) wrote:


Unsurprisingly, todays European past 12 hours synops throws up
Funchal, Madiera as the wettest location with 22.0mm between 6am and
6pm today.


24 hour total to 6am this morning was 37.0mm at Funchal, Madiera.


http://217.160.75.104/pics/bracka.gif

Vince shown up on tonight FAX chart.

Looking at the Tomorrow's 1200 prognosis, can I assume that TS Vince becomes
the feature in the Western bay of Biscay? Or does it dissipate completely,
leaving no trace?
--
Rob Overfield
Hull

Felly sgrifennodd Steve :
CAT 1
hurricanes have run into Biscay and even Mayo, Eire, but they did not fom
where Vince is.

Really? I thought the concensus on here was that hurricanes up this way are
impossible. If Mayo can get one, then that article recently ridiculed in
the Western Mail about Wales getting one would not be so crazy.

Adrian

--
Adrian Shaw ais@
Adran Cyfrifiadureg, Prifysgol Cymru, aber.
Aberystwyth, Ceredigion, Cymru ac.
http://users.aber.ac.uk/ais uk