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This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastprofile.shtml

http://www.metoffice.com/research/ha...Annual/cet.gif

What's the relationship between the series ?

To my mind a cold snowy decade in the 60s followed a high hurricane frequency
decade the 50s, at some stage the hurricane frequency this century will decrease
and then what will happen to the winters ? Colder perhaps ?

OK *very loose* science, but to me just another part of the jigsaw.

A *proper* time-series analysis is required here, anyone ?

HTH

Will.
--

" Ah yet another day to enjoy "
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Will Hand wrote:
================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastprofile.shtml

http://www.metoffice.com/research/ha...Annual/cet.gif

What's the relationship between the series ?

To my mind a cold snowy decade in the 60s followed a high hurricane frequency
decade the 50s, at some stage the hurricane frequency this century will decrease
and then what will happen to the winters ? Colder perhaps ?

OK *very loose* science, but to me just another part of the jigsaw.

A *proper* time-series analysis is required here, anyone ?

HTH

Will.
--

" Ah yet another day to enjoy "
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Thanks for that Will, so it's not a case of one seasons high frequency
is followed by a cold winter then ?
However, given a series of high frequency seasons now gone by, we must
be ready to hit some colder winters. Very loosely of course :-)

--
Keith (Southend)

'Weather Home & Abroad'
http://www.southendweather.net

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastprofile.shtml

http://www.metoffice.com/research/ha...Annual/cet.gif

What's the relationship between the series ?

To my mind a cold snowy decade in the 60s followed a high hurricane
frequency
decade the 50s, at some stage the hurricane frequency this century will
decrease
and then what will happen to the winters ? Colder perhaps ?

OK *very loose* science, but to me just another part of the jigsaw.

A *proper* time-series analysis is required here, anyone ?

HTH

Will.

Will,

May I suggest a weekend project for you ? It could be just another paper to
add to your repertoire !

Joe

To my mind a cold snowy decade in the 60s followed a high hurricane
frequency
decade the 50s, at some stage the hurricane frequency this century will
decrease
and then what will happen to the winters ? Colder perhaps ?


Yes, bit which, if either is the cause?

You could say the the colder weather in the 60's led to less hurricanes.

I read an interesting article once which showed statistical significant
links between things which couldn't possible be connected.

I've noticed that my purchase of warm clothing is frequently followed by
several months rather cool weather. It happens every year. Maybe I should
start buying shorts in October, and then the winter'll be warm!

There is a danger in basing too much on what's happened before. The 50's did
see plenty of hurricanes, but in many other ways they were different to the
last 10 years. E.g north Atlantic SSTs were certainly generally lower, there
was more arctic ice, and the Labour party was left wing.

Anyway, Spring's arrived. They've started picking Sols (narcissi) on Scilly.


Graham

In article , "Will Hand" writes:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastprofile.shtml

http://www.metoffice.com/research/ha...Annual/cet.gif

What's the relationship between the series ?

Nothing very strong, as far as I can see.


To my mind a cold snowy decade in the 60s followed a high hurricane frequency
decade the 50s,

True. But a much colder several decades centred around 1890 did not follow
any high frequency hurricane period centred around 1870. Is there any reason
why a "pattern" should break down there?



.. at some stage the hurricane frequency this century will decrease
and then what will happen to the winters ? Colder perhaps ?

Coincidence does not mean correlation. I know you know that:-)




OK *very loose* science, but to me just another part of the jigsaw.

I think we are in new territory, climate-wise. Time series correlations which
have held true over some part of recent history may simply begin to fall apart...



Cheers,

keith




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