Tropical Depression 24, currently stationary in the mid Caribbean, is
forecast to reach Tropical Storm status within 24 hours and will thus
(I think!) be named Wilma, This will be the 21st name used in the 2005
Atlantic hurricane season and is the last one in the names list. The
Greek alphabet will have to be used thereafter for any further "named"
Atlantic storms this year. If it develops as expected, Wilma will
become a hurricane within three days and will head into the Gulf of
Mexico. The GFDL model develops it into a Major Hurricane within three
days

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200524.disc.html (reproduced
below my signature).

--
Dave

"Tropical Depression Twenty-Four Discussion Number 4
===========================================

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on October 16, 2005

There have been no dramatic changes to the organization of the
Depression this morning...although there is more deep convection
near the center with hints of a little more banding. The latest
Dvorak classifications from tafb and sab were unchanged...at
T2.5/35 kt...but as noted in the previous discussion...with such a
Broad wind field the winds are probably still lagging the satellite
Signature.

An air force reconnaissance aircraft will be reaching
The depression early this afternoon to better assess the strength
Of the cyclone. The upper-level flow pattern remains extremely
Favorable for development...with low shear and good anticyclonic
Outflow...and there is a deep supply of warm water in the northwest
Caribbean. The rapid instensification component of the ships model
Is increasingly suggesting the likelihood of rapid development...
But a better defined inner core structure needs to form first. The
Gfdl model brings the depression to major hurricane status within
Three days...and the large scale factors are certainly in place to
Allow this to happen. The official forecast is closer to the ships
Model early in the forecast period but favors the gfdl later on.

The depression appears to have moved little over the past several
hours...and perhaps may have drifted a little northeast of the
Advisory position. This too...will be better assessed when the
Reconnaissance aircraft arrives. The synoptic reasoning of the
Forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory. The cyclone is
Caught between two mid-level high pressure centers...with the more
Dominant one being located over the central gulf of mexico. A
Mid-level short wave is currently north of the depression but will
Soon be moving by...which should allow the westward drift to resume
Later today or tonight as weak ridging builds in north of the
Cyclone.

Global models gradually erode the area of high pressure
Over the gulf as the mid- to upper-level low currently over
Southern california progresses eastward. Model guidance is in
Reasonable agreement on an eventual turn to the northwest and then
North as the ridge erodes late in the forecast period...but with
Significant differences in speed as the cyclone begins to
Accelerate. The official forecast is just a shade faster than the
Previous advisory and is very close to the dynamical model
consensus.

Forecaster Franklin

Forecast Max Winds

initial 16/1500z 17. 30 kt
12hr VT 35 kt
24hr VT 45 kt
36hr VT 55 kt
48hr VT 65 kt
72hr VT 80 kt
96hr VT 90 kt
120hVT 95 kt"

"Dave Ludlow" wrote in message
...
Tropical Depression 24, currently stationary in the mid Caribbean, is
forecast to reach Tropical Storm status within 24 hours and will thus
(I think!) be named Wilma, This will be the 21st name used in the 2005
Atlantic hurricane season and is the last one in the names list. The
Greek alphabet will have to be used thereafter for any further "named"
Atlantic storms this year. If it develops as expected, Wilma will
become a hurricane within three days and will head into the Gulf of
Mexico. The GFDL model develops it into a Major Hurricane within three
days

TS Wilma as from the latest advisory.

Joe

On Mon, 17 Oct 2005 09:42:35 +0100, "Joe Hunt"
wrote:

"Dave Ludlow" wrote in message
.. .
Tropical Depression 24, currently stationary in the mid Caribbean, is
forecast to reach Tropical Storm status within 24 hours and will thus
(I think!) be named Wilma, This will be the 21st name used in the 2005
Atlantic hurricane season and is the last one in the names list. The
Greek alphabet will have to be used thereafter for any further "named"
Atlantic storms this year. If it develops as expected, Wilma will
become a hurricane within three days and will head into the Gulf of
Mexico. The GFDL model develops it into a Major Hurricane within three
days

TS Wilma as from the latest advisory.

*Hurricane* Wilma (wow that was quick!) is heading for.. Florida.
Noooo!!! - my twin daughters and grand daughter are oin holiday there.
And I'm not. NOOOOO!!!!!!!!

From the discussion: Wilma...the 12th hurricane of the season...ties
the record for most hurricanes in a season set in 1969.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200524.disc.html

--
Dave

"Dave Ludlow" wrote in message
...
*Hurricane* Wilma (wow that was quick!) is heading for.. Florida.
Noooo!!! - my twin daughters and grand daughter are oin holiday there.
And I'm not. NOOOOO!!!!!!!!

From the discussion: Wilma...the 12th hurricane of the season...ties
the record for most hurricanes in a season set in 1969.



Dave,

Iam leaving for Florida tomorrow (via New York overnight). I got in touch
with the insurance company whether they would pay for a cancellation (on the
villa paid for) in the event of even a Cat 5 Hurricane (which I dont think
Wilma will be).

I think I knew the answer and was not disappointed.

No, they dont pay for an act of god - but if there was a storm at Heathrow
that prevented me from leaving the UK - they would pay!

Anyway I'll try to keep usw posted.

Phil

In uk.sci.weather on Tue, 18 Oct 2005 at 20:39:58, Phil Layton wrote :

Iam leaving for Florida tomorrow (via New York overnight). I got in touch
with the insurance company whether they would pay for a cancellation (on the
villa paid for) in the event of even a Cat 5 Hurricane (which I dont think
Wilma will be).

I think I knew the answer and was not disappointed.

No, they dont pay for an act of god

Just tell them you are an atheist.

- but if there was a storm at Heathrow
that prevented me from leaving the UK - they would pay!

Anyway I'll try to keep usw posted.
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham

On Tue, 18 Oct 2005 20:39:58 +0100, Phil Layton wrote:

No, they dont pay for an act of god - but if there was a storm at
Heathrow that prevented me from leaving the UK - they would pay!

Will they pay to get you back home early when your villa has been
wrecked and is no longer habitable? Or worse air ambulance you back
after being injured?

--
Cheers
Dave. pam is missing e-mail

"Dave Liquorice" wrote in message
ll.com...
On Tue, 18 Oct 2005 20:39:58 +0100, Phil Layton wrote:

No, they dont pay for an act of god - but if there was a storm at
Heathrow that prevented me from leaving the UK - they would pay!

Will they pay to get you back home early when your villa has been
wrecked and is no longer habitable? Or worse air ambulance you back
after being injured?


Yep Dave. They said that if I get injured in the hurricane then that is
covered!

All a bit of a joke really.

Phil