Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for 12z on Sunday. Issued 0541z,
19/10/05.

The models are mixed once again. It now looks as though a trough will move
northwards over the UK during the first half of next week, bringing a return
to mild or very mild conditions as tropical maritime air is advected over
the UK. As ever, more runs are needed.

ECMWF: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Recm1201.gif
A ridge covers England and Wales, bringing light westerlies and SW'lies.
Stronger SW'lies cover Northern Ireland due to a nearby trough, while
Scotland lies under easterlies and SE'lies. A trough moves northwards over
the UK at T+144 with SE'lies ahead of it and SW'lies following behind. By
T+168 the trough covers northern Scotland with westerlies for most.

MetO: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rukm1201.gif
MetO also shows a trough affecting the UK, this time over Eire. SW'lies and
southerlies affect much of England and Wales as a result, with easterlies
for Northern Ireland and a mixture of NE'lies and easterlies for Scotland.

GFS: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn1201.gif
The UK lies under southerlies as the result of a large low to the west and a
weak ridge over eastern areas. A secondary low deepens west of Scotland at
T+144, leading to strong SSW'lies and SW'lies for the UK. The strong (and
mild) SW'lies continue at T+168.

GEM: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rgem1201.gif
The Canadian also shows a low to the west with southerlies and SE'lies for
the UK.

GME/DWD:
http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...190000_120.gif
Light winds cover much of the UK as the result a col, although eastern areas
of both Scotland and England lie under northerlies. A trough moves over the
English Channel at T+144, leading to SE'lies for most areas.

JMA: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rjma1201.gif
The Japanese run also shows a col and light winds. Things change at T+144 as
a trough moves swiftly NE'wards to cover Scotland. SW'lies and westerlies
affect the UK as a result.

NOGAPS: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rngp1201.gif
NOGAPS brings NE'lies and northerlies across the UK, which lies between a
ridge to the NW and a low over the southern North Sea. High pressure brings
northerlies to most at T+144 as it moves SE'wards over Scotland, Northern
Ireland and Wales.

KMA: http://www.kma.go.kr/kma03/gif/g21nh_smsr_120.gif
The Korean model shows a trough over the UK from a low to the east.
Northerlies and NW'lies cover the UK as a result.

Darren - is that Wilma for us then next week ?--

_______________________________
Paul Crabtree
Brampton, Cumbria
117m A.S.L
www.bramptonweather.co.uk
"Darren Prescott" wrote in message
...
Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for 12z on Sunday. Issued
0541z, 19/10/05.

The models are mixed once again. It now looks as though a trough will move
northwards over the UK during the first half of next week, bringing a
return to mild or very mild conditions as tropical maritime air is
advected over the UK. As ever, more runs are needed.

ECMWF: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Recm1201.gif
A ridge covers England and Wales, bringing light westerlies and SW'lies.
Stronger SW'lies cover Northern Ireland due to a nearby trough, while
Scotland lies under easterlies and SE'lies. A trough moves northwards over
the UK at T+144 with SE'lies ahead of it and SW'lies following behind. By
T+168 the trough covers northern Scotland with westerlies for most.

MetO: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rukm1201.gif
MetO also shows a trough affecting the UK, this time over Eire. SW'lies
and southerlies affect much of England and Wales as a result, with
easterlies for Northern Ireland and a mixture of NE'lies and easterlies
for Scotland.

GFS: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn1201.gif
The UK lies under southerlies as the result of a large low to the west and
a weak ridge over eastern areas. A secondary low deepens west of Scotland
at T+144, leading to strong SSW'lies and SW'lies for the UK. The strong
(and mild) SW'lies continue at T+168.

GEM: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rgem1201.gif
The Canadian also shows a low to the west with southerlies and SE'lies for
the UK.

GME/DWD:
http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...190000_120.gif
Light winds cover much of the UK as the result a col, although eastern
areas of both Scotland and England lie under northerlies. A trough moves
over the English Channel at T+144, leading to SE'lies for most areas.

JMA: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rjma1201.gif
The Japanese run also shows a col and light winds. Things change at T+144
as a trough moves swiftly NE'wards to cover Scotland. SW'lies and
westerlies affect the UK as a result.

NOGAPS: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rngp1201.gif
NOGAPS brings NE'lies and northerlies across the UK, which lies between a
ridge to the NW and a low over the southern North Sea. High pressure
brings northerlies to most at T+144 as it moves SE'wards over Scotland,
Northern Ireland and Wales.

KMA: http://www.kma.go.kr/kma03/gif/g21nh_smsr_120.gif
The Korean model shows a trough over the UK from a low to the east.
Northerlies and NW'lies cover the UK as a result.

Darren - is that Wilma for us then next week ?--
Ugh, I wouldn't like to say where Wilma will end up! Yesterday's ECM keeps
her firmly on the other side of the Atlantic by T+168, while the GFS is
flip-flopping around like a dying fish regarding Wilma's track.

Then again as 24-hour forecasts regarding Wilma proved to completely
underestimate the deepening she's gone through, what hope is there for
predicting her position in a week or more's time? Hopefully by this weekend
the models will have a better idea of her track...

In uk.sci.weather on Wed, 19 Oct 2005 at 05:42:45, Darren Prescott wrote
:
Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for 12z on Sunday. Issued 0541z,
19/10/05.

The models are mixed once again. It now looks as though a trough will move
northwards over the UK during the first half of next week, bringing a return
to mild or very mild conditions as tropical maritime air is advected over
the UK. As ever, more runs are needed.

Somebody really should buy the Azores High a GPS system...
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham