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Old October 20th 05, 07:33 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default BBC NEWS | UK | Met Office warns of bitter winter - yes it's the same story told slightly differently


"Rodney Blackall" wrote in message
...


Yes, very good advice! Any experienced hill walker will tell you "If you
have cold hands or feet, put a hat on."

What part of the body loses heat fastest? The head. Q.E.D.


Well yes, that was kind of my point.
A statement of the bleedin' obvious!

Col
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Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.



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Old October 20th 05, 07:52 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default BBC NEWS | UK | Met Office warns of bitter winter - yes it's the same story told slightly differently

In message .com
"Keith (Southend)G" wrote:

To early to look at charts with highs in those regions, I've seen these
form every year since I can remember. My 'gut' feeling is a winter
comparable to 1969 / 1970 which had some quite severe spells
interspersed with milder intelludes.

What is different this year, compared to the last couple, is I have not
yet seen extreme cold temperatures in northern Scandinavia.


Yes, I noticed that this year. I oftyen monitor the weather in
Kiruna, Sweden, where I once lived, and notice that they have had no
snow yet and that last night was the first with a temperature below
-5C.

Might get some snow this weekend though. That 528 line is getting
closer all the time.

Martin


Maybe these
are going to arrive later in the winter and then the winds turn in our
direction? Previously, the 'milder' air has returned to these regions
when we look like getting a NE wind. Just an observation. But things to
appear to be different this autumn.

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net



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Old October 21st 05, 08:18 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default BBC NEWS | UK | Met Office warns of bitter winter - yes it'sthe same story told slightly differently

Adrian D. Shaw wrote:
Felly sgrifennodd Malcolm :

No, it won't be the same story as surely the probability of it happening
will have increased!



Maybe that was tongue-in-cheek, but just in case it wasn't, statistically
that argument is wrong. Of course, the press won't understand that.

Say I toss a coin 10 times, and each time it comes up tails. The chance of it
being heads next time is still 1 in 2.

Adrian


Interesting, though the probability of turning up 10 tails(mild winters
say) in a row is 1024 to 1 so a 65% chance of a cold winter makes for a
pretty easy statement.
Alan
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Old October 21st 05, 08:00 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default BBC NEWS | UK | Met Office warns of bitter winter - yes it'sthe same story told slightly differently

Felly sgrifennodd Alan Whitewick :
Interesting, though the probability of turning up 10 tails(mild winters
say) in a row is 1024 to 1 so a 65% chance of a cold winter makes for a
pretty easy statement.


Well, 1023:1, but yes to the average tabloid journalist it is easy to
say.

Adrian

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Aberystwyth, Ceredigion, Cymru ac.
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