"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

Sheesh it isn't even November yet and already winter is written off :-(


Ridiculous isn't it. We can only right of winter after the 5th November! :-)

Victor

I'm not writing off the winter, but i don't pretend that i'll know what
it'll be doing for the next four months !!

Are things boring at the moment or what?

Folks on TWO have resorted to posts like "don't forget The Day After
Tomorrow is being shown tonight" !!

Yeah right, based on a book "The Coming Global Superstorm" by Art Bell
& Whitley Streiber (remember him? His book about being abducted by
aliens many years ago)
These fellas are not about light entertainment, they are serious.
If you've heard them on the radio, you will know they 100 percent
believe in what they say
Every storm, hurricane and tornado that occurs is used as a reason for
these people to get back on the airwaves and proclaim "look see, it's
really happening"

Here's a review on another book written by Art Bell
http://www.csicop.org/sb/9712/baker.html

From some of the doom-mongering i've been reading in the press, you
would think a real life Day After Tomorrow will start from Dec 1st !!

We had this BS last year as well. What ended up happening?
Brain and Andrew publicly apologising in March of this year, for the
forecasts they gave

The Met Office may have to face up to the same...by the time March 2006
rolls around

The current weather situation seems pretty interesting to me. People
will insist on ignoring the present, and wanting to post about the
winter to come. The winter we will never forget for a long time
apparantly.

Which poses another interesting question
Does the grass look greener the further into the future we peer?

Green grass is what i think a lot of us will be looking at in the
months ahead

Steve

In article , writes:

If I understand correctly, the Met Office are suggesting that there is
a 2 in 3 chance that the coming winter will have temperatures lower
than the mean for the past ten years. There is also a 2 in 3 chance
that the rainfall will be less than the mean for the past ten years.

To be pedantic, I suspect the Met Office is actually comparing the
expected figures with the median figures for the past ten years, but
that isn't clear in the press release.


(Indeed... it could have been more explicitly worded.)


In support of Jon's posting, I think the Met Office were referring to the
the *long-term" average (ie. a rolling 30-year average) when they talked
about "averages" (because those were the figures they produced in the
forecast).


So, a ~66% chance of being colder than the current 30-year average, but not
as cold as 1995/96. For Southern England that would indicate a mean winter
temperature of between 3.5 and 4.5 C.

For other Regions:

Scotland - between 1.8 and 2.7
Northern England - between 2.4 and 3.5
Wales - between 2.8 and 4.2
Northern Ireland - between 3.7 and 4.3


Cheers,

keith










---
Iraq: 6.5 thousand million pounds, 90 UK lives, and counting...
100,000+ civilian casualties, largely of coalition bombing...
London?...

"Keith Dancey" wrote in message
...
In article ,
writes:

If I understand correctly, the Met Office are suggesting that there is
a 2 in 3 chance that the coming winter will have temperatures lower
than the mean for the past ten years. There is also a 2 in 3 chance
that the rainfall will be less than the mean for the past ten years.

To be pedantic, I suspect the Met Office is actually comparing the
expected figures with the median figures for the past ten years, but
that isn't clear in the press release.


(Indeed... it could have been more explicitly worded.)


In support of Jon's posting, I think the Met Office were referring to the
the *long-term" average (ie. a rolling 30-year average) when they talked
about "averages" (because those were the figures they produced in the
forecast).


So, a ~66% chance of being colder than the current 30-year average, but
not
as cold as 1995/96. For Southern England that would indicate a mean
winter
temperature of between 3.5 and 4.5 C.

For other Regions:

Scotland - between 1.8 and 2.7
Northern England - between 2.4 and 3.5
Wales - between 2.8 and 4.2
Northern Ireland - between 3.7 and 4.3



The forecast in
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research.../headline.html
says "The balance of probability is for a winter colder than those
experienced since 1995/6.". As far as I can see, it doesn't mention "colder
than the mean" or "colder than the 30 year average". What it does do is
compare 2 recent winters against the long term average and the winter of
1995/96. I would have thought that there should be no confusion as regards
the Met Office forecast.
As of the 24th October (when they issued it) they were expecting a fairly
high probability that this winter would be the coldest since 1995/96.
Whether that turns out to be correct or not we'll have to wait and see.

Victor

"Victor West" wrote in message
...

As of the 24th October (when they issued it) they were expecting a fairly
high probability that this winter would be the coldest since 1995/96.
Whether that turns out to be correct or not we'll have to wait and see.

Victor

The original forecast was issued around the 24th September and updated a
week ago. I'm 99% sure the original statement was based on 30 years of data.

Jon.

"Victor West" wrote in message
...

As of the 24th October (when they issued it) they were expecting a
fairly
high probability that this winter would be the coldest since 1995/96.
Whether that turns out to be correct or not we'll have to wait and see.

Victor

I've since discovered the NAO forecast and statements are based on a 56 year
period;
the NAO averaging values for the period 48/49 to 03/04.

It all makes sense now ;-)

Jon.

In message , Will Hand
writes

"Paul Bartlett" wrote in message
...
In message ,
Howard Neil writes
Will Hand wrote:
Well I haven't the foggiest of what a "normal winter" is like up here
on Haytor
as I have only experienced 3.
Impressions so far are of several 1-4cm snowfalls which usually melt
by midday.
Lots of days with snow falling but not settling. Lots of days with
rain and fog.
Frost less common than in the southeast, but more days of below freezing
wind
chill and gales. A bit of sunshine and a good chance of snow on Christmas
Day
but not a lot before then. If we are to have a "below normal" winter
then all I
have to say is ooo-er, I'm glad I have good supply of logs :-)
So yes, normal can mean different things to different people.

I thought a normal winter started off in Autumn with someone telling
the press that the following winter was to be severe.

This is then followed by ever increasing hype by the press and suitable
discussion about the reports in usw.

During the actual winter months there are many posts in usw bemoaning
the lack of snow (what happened to the forecasts?). When a snow flake
lands, usw becomes swamped with weather reports.

Then there is spring, when someone tells the press that the following
summer will be the hottest since record began.

One of the most logical interpretations I have heard for a long time -
same old forecasts. Same old mild winter.
Cheers
Paul
--

Sheesh it isn't even November yet and already winter is written off :-(

Will.
Will, what else can we honestly expect. OK the October blocking by my
book was hardly encouraging. A cold wet November is again by the same
book our only hope for a winter even down to average. Never mind - my
day has gone and I have enjoyed some cracking winters in my youth. I
fear for the next generation and the one after.
Usual old Hadley Centre stuff - I am not in a position to argue - yet!
Cheers
Paul
--
'Wisest are they that know they do not know.' Socrates.
Paul Bartlett FRMetS
www.rutnet.co.uk Go to local weather

Phil Layton wrote:
Am I right in thinking that since the 'normal cold' Winter forecast by the
MetO, there has been high pressure over Europe. It is on all of the GFS
forecasts, and presumably will not go away and present us with the forecast
'Easterlies' in due course when the ex hurricanes have blown them selves out
in the Atlantic.

Phil (in New York awaiting return to London - temp here 54f BKN040 wind from
the E this morning)

Yes you are right in your initial statement, but it does not follow
that a large high over northern Europe will necessarily retrogress. In
fact, it can have the effect it is having at the moment, i.e. cause
Atlantic depressions to become very slow moving over the UK, and
therefore produce mild, wet and windy weather.

I would suggest you turn your attention to the development, or not, of
an intense high over Greenland.

In article , "Victor West" writes:

"Keith Dancey" wrote in message
...
In article ,
writes:

If I understand correctly, the Met Office are suggesting that there is
a 2 in 3 chance that the coming winter will have temperatures lower
than the mean for the past ten years. There is also a 2 in 3 chance
that the rainfall will be less than the mean for the past ten years.

To be pedantic, I suspect the Met Office is actually comparing the
expected figures with the median figures for the past ten years, but
that isn't clear in the press release.


(Indeed... it could have been more explicitly worded.)


In support of Jon's posting, I think the Met Office were referring to the
the *long-term" average (ie. a rolling 30-year average) when they talked
about "averages" (because those were the figures they produced in the
forecast).


So, a ~66% chance of being colder than the current 30-year average, but
not
as cold as 1995/96. For Southern England that would indicate a mean
winter
temperature of between 3.5 and 4.5 C.

For other Regions:

Scotland - between 1.8 and 2.7
Northern England - between 2.4 and 3.5
Wales - between 2.8 and 4.2
Northern Ireland - between 3.7 and 4.3



The forecast in
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research.../headline.html
says "The balance of probability is for a winter colder than those
experienced since 1995/6.". As far as I can see, it doesn't mention "colder
than the mean" or "colder than the 30 year average".


You should look again...

From your URL (updated October 24th):

"Our predictions continue to indicate a colder than average winter..."


From http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporat...r20050926.html
dated 26th September:

"the Met Office has given advanced warning to many of its customers and
partners to plan for a 'colder-than-average winter'."


From a posting dated September 28th:

Subject: Winter Forecast


"I have to take it that the wording "colder than average winter" (Winter
forecast 2005/6) and "colder-than-average-winter" (News release) refers to
the "long-term average" figures (30 years) quoted in the former only."




Cheers,


keith




---
Iraq: 6.5 thousand million pounds, 90 UK lives, and counting...
100,000+ civilian casualties, largely of coalition bombing...
London?...

Keith Dancey wrote:
In article , "Victor West"
writes:

"Keith Dancey" wrote in message
...
In article ,
writes:

If I understand correctly, the Met Office are suggesting that
there is a 2 in 3 chance that the coming winter will have
temperatures lower than the mean for the past ten years. There is
also a 2 in 3 chance that the rainfall will be less than the mean
for the past ten years.

To be pedantic, I suspect the Met Office is actually comparing the
expected figures with the median figures for the past ten years,
but that isn't clear in the press release.


(Indeed... it could have been more explicitly worded.)


In support of Jon's posting, I think the Met Office were referring
to the the *long-term" average (ie. a rolling 30-year average) when
they talked about "averages" (because those were the figures they
produced in the forecast).


So, a ~66% chance of being colder than the current 30-year average,
but not
as cold as 1995/96. For Southern England that would indicate a mean
winter
temperature of between 3.5 and 4.5 C.

For other Regions:

Scotland - between 1.8 and 2.7
Northern England - between 2.4 and 3.5
Wales - between 2.8 and 4.2
Northern Ireland - between 3.7 and 4.3



The forecast in
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research.../headline.html
says "The balance of probability is for a winter colder than those
experienced since 1995/6.". As far as I can see, it doesn't mention
"colder than the mean" or "colder than the 30 year average".


You should look again...

From your URL (updated October 24th):

"Our predictions continue to indicate a colder than average winter..."


From
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporat...r20050926.html
dated 26th September:

"the Met Office has given advanced warning to many of its customers
and
partners to plan for a 'colder-than-average winter'."


From a posting dated September 28th:

Subject: Winter Forecast


"I have to take it that the wording "colder than average winter"
(Winter
forecast 2005/6) and "colder-than-average-winter" (News release)
refers to
the "long-term average" figures (30 years) quoted in the former only."



Cheers,

keith

Funny how this has become converted by the press to it is definitely
expected that it will be the coldest winter since the big freeze of
1962-1963, (Daily Express) and "may be at least 2 degrees below average"
.....is that an oxymoron? Taking the biscuit was the preamble to the radio
interview I did last week when the announcer stated he had seen reports that
it was to be the coldest winter since the 1800s.......

But for any of these extreme stories, although "forecasters" are mentioned,
no source or organisation is named.