As :-
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporat...20051028b.html

Jon.


--
Posted via Mailgate.ORG Server - http://www.Mailgate.ORG

In message lgate.org,
Jon O Rourke writes
As :-
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporat...20051028b.html

Jon.

What is missing is a definition of what is considered to be 'normal' in
this context. The press release appears to be making the point that the
winters during the past 10 years have been milder than 'normal' but it
does not go on to say what is 'normal'. The man on the Clapham omnibus
might think that a 'normal' winter is one with lots of frost and snow
and if the prediction is for something colder than that then he might
well conclude that we are in for something quite severe.

Norman
(delete "thisbit" twice to e-mail)
--
Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy
Chalfont St Giles 85m a.s.l.
England

Yes Jon, I can just see the banner headlines in the tabloids tomorrow
morning:
"MET OFFICE CLARIFICATION - ONLY NORMAL COLD WINTER
Apologies to all of our readers if they were previously misled by us and
given the impression that this winter was going to be one of the harshest
ever."
I wish. ;-)
Dave
"Jon O Rourke" wrote in message
news:8262da6e64454a1c5753d9ff763db945.62236@mygate .mailgate.org...
As :-
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporat...20051028b.html

Jon.


--
Posted via Mailgate.ORG Server - http://www.Mailgate.ORG

"Normal" covers a wide range. Snow and frost are normal. Rain and
gales are normal. Mild SW'lies are normal. Cold dry NE'lies are
also normal in winter.

Sadly, Joe Public on his Clapham bus might have difficulty
understanding this. He might understand "average" although that
really is a misnomer.

If I understand correctly, the Met Office are suggesting that there is
a 2 in 3 chance that the coming winter will have temperatures lower
than the mean for the past ten years. There is also a 2 in 3 chance
that the rainfall will be less than the mean for the past ten years.
To be pedantic, I suspect the Met Office is actually comparing the
expected figures with the median figures for the past ten years, but
that isn't clear in the press release.

No of course, to arrive at a mean figure (of anything) some numbers
will be higher than the mean, others lower.

But that concept was not understood by one Union Leader some years ago:
"I will not be satisfied until every worker in this country gets at
least the average wage"

Quite clearly, this coming winter is going to be "normal".

Jack

wrote in message
oups.com...
snip
If I understand correctly, the Met Office are suggesting that there is
a 2 in 3 chance that the coming winter will have temperatures lower
than the mean for the past ten years.
snip

From the Winter forecast -

"The balance of probability is for a winter colder than those
experienced since 1995/6."

So surely that's colder than any of them, not just colder than the mean
of those ten, for what it's worth.

Tom

Well I haven't the foggiest of what a "normal winter" is like up here on Haytor
as I have only experienced 3.

Impressions so far are of several 1-4cm snowfalls which usually melt by midday.
Lots of days with snow falling but not settling. Lots of days with rain and fog.
Frost less common than in the southeast, but more days of below freezing wind
chill and gales. A bit of sunshine and a good chance of snow on Christmas Day
but not a lot before then. If we are to have a "below normal" winter then all I
have to say is ooo-er, I'm glad I have good supply of logs :-)

So yes, normal can mean different things to different people.

Will.
--

wrote in message
oups.com...
"Normal" covers a wide range. Snow and frost are normal. Rain and
gales are normal. Mild SW'lies are normal. Cold dry NE'lies are
also normal in winter.

Sadly, Joe Public on his Clapham bus might have difficulty
understanding this. He might understand "average" although that
really is a misnomer.

If I understand correctly, the Met Office are suggesting that there is
a 2 in 3 chance that the coming winter will have temperatures lower
than the mean for the past ten years. There is also a 2 in 3 chance
that the rainfall will be less than the mean for the past ten years.
To be pedantic, I suspect the Met Office is actually comparing the
expected figures with the median figures for the past ten years, but
that isn't clear in the press release.

No of course, to arrive at a mean figure (of anything) some numbers
will be higher than the mean, others lower.

But that concept was not understood by one Union Leader some years ago:
"I will not be satisfied until every worker in this country gets at
least the average wage"

Quite clearly, this coming winter is going to be "normal".

Jack

Am I right in thinking that since the 'normal cold' Winter forecast by the
MetO, there has been high pressure over Europe. It is on all of the GFS
forecasts, and presumably will not go away and present us with the forecast
'Easterlies' in due course when the ex hurricanes have blown them selves out
in the Atlantic.

Phil (in New York awaiting return to London - temp here 54f BKN040 wind from
the E this morning)

wrote in message
oups.com...
"Normal" covers a wide range. Snow and frost are normal. Rain and
gales are normal. Mild SW'lies are normal. Cold dry NE'lies are
also normal in winter.

Sadly, Joe Public on his Clapham bus might have difficulty
understanding this. He might understand "average" although that
really is a misnomer.

If I understand correctly, the Met Office are suggesting that there is
a 2 in 3 chance that the coming winter will have temperatures lower
than the mean for the past ten years.

IIRC, the "colder than average winter" prediction was based on 30 years data
rather than 10. Hence, its original significance..

Jon.

In message ,
Howard Neil writes
Will Hand wrote:
Well I haven't the foggiest of what a "normal winter" is like up here
on Haytor
as I have only experienced 3.
Impressions so far are of several 1-4cm snowfalls which usually melt
by midday.
Lots of days with snow falling but not settling. Lots of days with
rain and fog.
Frost less common than in the southeast, but more days of below freezing wind
chill and gales. A bit of sunshine and a good chance of snow on Christmas Day
but not a lot before then. If we are to have a "below normal" winter
then all I
have to say is ooo-er, I'm glad I have good supply of logs :-)
So yes, normal can mean different things to different people.

I thought a normal winter started off in Autumn with someone telling
the press that the following winter was to be severe.

This is then followed by ever increasing hype by the press and suitable
discussion about the reports in usw.

During the actual winter months there are many posts in usw bemoaning
the lack of snow (what happened to the forecasts?). When a snow flake
lands, usw becomes swamped with weather reports.

Then there is spring, when someone tells the press that the following
summer will be the hottest since record began.

One of the most logical interpretations I have heard for a long time -
same old forecasts. Same old mild winter.
Cheers
Paul
--
'Wisest are they that know they do not know.' Socrates.
Paul Bartlett FRMetS
www.rutnet.co.uk Go to local weather

"Paul Bartlett" wrote in message
...
In message ,
Howard Neil writes
Will Hand wrote:
Well I haven't the foggiest of what a "normal winter" is like up here
on Haytor
as I have only experienced 3.
Impressions so far are of several 1-4cm snowfalls which usually melt
by midday.
Lots of days with snow falling but not settling. Lots of days with
rain and fog.
Frost less common than in the southeast, but more days of below freezing
wind
chill and gales. A bit of sunshine and a good chance of snow on Christmas
Day
but not a lot before then. If we are to have a "below normal" winter
then all I
have to say is ooo-er, I'm glad I have good supply of logs :-)
So yes, normal can mean different things to different people.

I thought a normal winter started off in Autumn with someone telling
the press that the following winter was to be severe.

This is then followed by ever increasing hype by the press and suitable
discussion about the reports in usw.

During the actual winter months there are many posts in usw bemoaning
the lack of snow (what happened to the forecasts?). When a snow flake
lands, usw becomes swamped with weather reports.

Then there is spring, when someone tells the press that the following
summer will be the hottest since record began.

One of the most logical interpretations I have heard for a long time -
same old forecasts. Same old mild winter.
Cheers
Paul
--

Sheesh it isn't even November yet and already winter is written off :-(

Will.
--