Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for 12z on Saturday. Issued
0552z, 1/11/05.


In summary, the models show SW'lies for most areas by Sunday, with rain
moving in from the west.

The overall upper pattern of a deep trough to the west and a ridge to the
east remains and until that changes the weather will be "stuck in a rut", so
to speak.

GEM eventually moves the upper trough eastwards over the UK to bring very
unsettled weather. GFS meanwhile moves the trough eastwards over us (where
it dissipates), only to be replaced by yet another trough to the west.

ECMWF: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Recm1201.gif
ECM shows SW'lies over the UK from day 5 to day 7, with a trough moving
slowly eastwards over the UK on days 6 and 7. A deep low remains in the
vicinity of Iceland throughout, with pressure remaining high to the east and
SE.

MetO: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rukm1201.gif
MetO is very similar, with SW'lies across the UK and a trough to the west.
By T+144 the trough becomes a secondary low to the NW with further SW'lies
for all.

GFS: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn1201.gif
SW'lies cover the UK with a deep low well to the NW. The low becomes complex
at T+144, with further SW'lies for all. Day 7 sees a small secondary low
over Northern Ireland with strong SSE'lies, southerlies and SSW'lies
elsewhere.

GEM: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rgem1201.gif
As with the other runs, SW'lies cover much of the UK, this time due to a
weak trough over the Irish Sea.

GME/DWD:
http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...010000_120.gif
A trough lies to the west and this brings SW'lies across the UK. The trough
moves slowly eastwards at T+144 to bring WSW'lies.

JMA: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rjma1201.gif
The Japanese run shows SW'lies for both T+120 and T+144 with a trough to the
west.

NOGAPS: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rngp1201.gif
NOGAPS shows a trough moving eastwards across the UK from T+120 to T+144
with SW'lies as a result.

KMA: http://www.kma.go.kr/kma03/gif/g21nh_smsr_120.gif
The Korean model shows a ridge over England with light SW'lies - elsewhere,
winds are stronger SW'lies.

MM5 snow forecast:
http://rain.mmm.ucar.edu/mm5/plots/n...snoc.hr120.gif
No snow is forecast to lie anywhere in the UK at T+120.

What happened to the high that was supposed to come in at the weekend?

Nick