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Old November 2nd 05, 06:00 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Today's model interpretation (2/11/05)

Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for 12z on Sunday. Issued 0559z,
2/11/05.

The models show SW'lies for all at the beginning of next week with low
pressure in the vicinity of Iceland. There'll be rain for all areas and
temperatures should be closer to the norm, although cloudy nights may well
boost the average. There continues to be uncertainty regarding Scandinavian
ridging, with the operational GFS being a mild outlier in the long-range
portion of its run. As ever, more runs are needed.

ECMWF: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Recm1201.gif
ECM shows complex low pressure to the NW and SW'lies over the UK as a
result. The SW'lies ease at T+144 as one of the lows moves away to the
north. By T+168 the lows merge over Iceland, leaving a trough to the west of
the UK. Winds are southerlies as a result.

MetO: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rukm1201.gif
MetO also shows SW'lies over the UK due to a trough to the west. The trough
moves eastwards over Ireland at T+144, bringing southerlies across the UK.

GFS: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn1201.gif
Complex low pressure surrounds Iceland, with the nearest centre to the UK
lying to the WNW of Scotland. A mixture of westerlies and WSW'lies covers
the UK, followed by southerlies and SW'lies for most areas at T+144 as a
secondary low covers Northern Ireland. The secondary low deepens to the west
of Norway at T+168, leaving the UK under westerlies.

GEM: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rgem1201.gif
GEM brings SW'lies across the UK in association with a low to the NW.

GME/DWD:
http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...020000_120.gif
The UK lies under SW'lies at T+120 and T+144 as a large low moves slowly
eastwards to the south of Iceland.

JMA: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rjma1201.gif
The Japanese run shows a deep low to the NW and SW'lies for all. The SW'lies
ease at T+144 as the low moves NNE'wards and a weak trough crosses England
and Wales.

NOGAPS: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rngp1201.gif
NOGAPS also shows SW'lies at T+120 and T+144 with complex low pressure to
the NW.

KMA: http://www.kma.go.kr/kma03/gif/g21nh_smsr_120.gif
The Korean model shows a trough to the west and SW'lies for all.

MM5 snow forecast:
http://rain.mmm.ucar.edu/mm5/plots/n...snoc.hr120.gif
No snow is forecast to lie anywhere in the UK at T+120.



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