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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for 12z on Sunday. Issued 0559z,
2/11/05. The models show SW'lies for all at the beginning of next week with low pressure in the vicinity of Iceland. There'll be rain for all areas and temperatures should be closer to the norm, although cloudy nights may well boost the average. There continues to be uncertainty regarding Scandinavian ridging, with the operational GFS being a mild outlier in the long-range portion of its run. As ever, more runs are needed. ECMWF: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Recm1201.gif ECM shows complex low pressure to the NW and SW'lies over the UK as a result. The SW'lies ease at T+144 as one of the lows moves away to the north. By T+168 the lows merge over Iceland, leaving a trough to the west of the UK. Winds are southerlies as a result. MetO: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rukm1201.gif MetO also shows SW'lies over the UK due to a trough to the west. The trough moves eastwards over Ireland at T+144, bringing southerlies across the UK. GFS: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn1201.gif Complex low pressure surrounds Iceland, with the nearest centre to the UK lying to the WNW of Scotland. A mixture of westerlies and WSW'lies covers the UK, followed by southerlies and SW'lies for most areas at T+144 as a secondary low covers Northern Ireland. The secondary low deepens to the west of Norway at T+168, leaving the UK under westerlies. GEM: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rgem1201.gif GEM brings SW'lies across the UK in association with a low to the NW. GME/DWD: http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...020000_120.gif The UK lies under SW'lies at T+120 and T+144 as a large low moves slowly eastwards to the south of Iceland. JMA: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rjma1201.gif The Japanese run shows a deep low to the NW and SW'lies for all. The SW'lies ease at T+144 as the low moves NNE'wards and a weak trough crosses England and Wales. NOGAPS: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rngp1201.gif NOGAPS also shows SW'lies at T+120 and T+144 with complex low pressure to the NW. KMA: http://www.kma.go.kr/kma03/gif/g21nh_smsr_120.gif The Korean model shows a trough to the west and SW'lies for all. MM5 snow forecast: http://rain.mmm.ucar.edu/mm5/plots/n...snoc.hr120.gif No snow is forecast to lie anywhere in the UK at T+120. |
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