http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/winter.asp

Headline : Average to slightly above average temperatures. Drier than
average.

Felly sgrifennodd BlueLightning :
Metcheck Winter Forecast Enclosed

You said that as if you meant to precede it by "Health warning: ".

Headline : Average to slightly above average temperatures. Drier than
average.

One might cynically say that they came up with this so that if the winter
is indeed not what the press seem to think the Met Office are forecasting,
they can claim one up on the Met Office.

And of course if it is cold, everyone will have forgotten their forecast
anyway.

Adrian

--
Adrian Shaw ais@
Adran Cyfrifiadureg, Prifysgol Cymru, aber.
Aberystwyth, Ceredigion, Cymru ac.
http://users.aber.ac.uk/ais uk

In message , Adrian D. Shaw
writes
Felly sgrifennodd BlueLightning :
Metcheck Winter Forecast Enclosed

You said that as if you meant to precede it by "Health warning: ".

Headline : Average to slightly above average temperatures. Drier than
average.

One might cynically say that they came up with this so that if the winter
is indeed not what the press seem to think the Met Office are forecasting,
they can claim one up on the Met Office.

And of course if it is cold, everyone will have forgotten their forecast
anyway.
To be fair Metcheck have published their methodology for once, of course
they are cashing in on the Met Office press misrepresentation. I don't
think they are being anything but sensible in doing this.
I have not put any work in yet and may not bother again this year unless
November is cold and wet.
From what little I have seen from the ecmwf seasonal progs Metcheck seem
to be on track.
But the Office are sticking to their guns - so the winter may be down to
normal.
Cheers
Paul
--
'Wisest are they that know they do not know.' Socrates.
Paul Bartlett FRMetS
www.rutnet.co.uk Go to local weather

"Paul Bartlett" wrote in message
...
In message , Adrian D. Shaw
writes
Felly sgrifennodd BlueLightning :
Metcheck Winter Forecast Enclosed

You said that as if you meant to precede it by "Health warning: ".

Headline : Average to slightly above average temperatures. Drier than
average.

One might cynically say that they came up with this so that if the winter
is indeed not what the press seem to think the Met Office are forecasting,
they can claim one up on the Met Office.

And of course if it is cold, everyone will have forgotten their forecast
anyway.
To be fair Metcheck have published their methodology for once, of course
they are cashing in on the Met Office press misrepresentation. I don't
think they are being anything but sensible in doing this.

I was impressed with the Metcheck forecast. Nice to see methodology explained.
Piers Corbyn - TAKE NOTE (like hell he will).

I have not put any work in yet and may not bother again this year unless
November is cold and wet.

Paul, you worry me, you really do. Are you really so fed up as to not to bother
?
You're making out you are really old and tired. But for heavens sake you are not
even 65 if my maths is right? COME ON. Winters are still interesting even if the
ball game has changed, are they not ?
Yes I know the lovely winters of the 60s are a thing of the past but hell's
teeth there is still some bite in a British winter shurely?

From what little I have seen from the ecmwf seasonal progs Metcheck seem
to be on track.
But the Office are sticking to their guns - so the winter may be down to
normal.

The "Office" as you call it will be updating shortly.

Cheers,

Will.
--

" Ah yet another day to enjoy "
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DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
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To be fair Metcheck have published their methodology for once, of
course they are cashing in on the Met Office press misrepresentation.
I don't think they are being anything but sensible in doing this.
I have not put any work in yet and may not bother again this year
unless November is cold and wet.
From what little I have seen from the ecmwf seasonal progs Metcheck
seem to be on track.
But the Office are sticking to their guns - so the winter may be down
to normal.
Cheers
Paul

I'm afraid I am with you Paul on the longer term. My own preferred
methodology involves a consideration of the strength of the Autumn jet
stream, and the general vorticity. I do not believe I have seen anything
thus far which has inclined me to see any diminution of the strength of
these elements this Autumn. Hence although there may well be major
blocking, it will not involve a slack enough gradient for the
development of sustained cold pools. You can have a large Scandinavian
high on a snowless continent bringing strong easterly winds with hardly
a bite to them. Furthermore the large warm pool of waters in the North
Sea and channel will ameliorate any cold weather from the east for some
time to come.

No, as much as I would love to have enough snow for a snowman, it won't
be this year - and who knows when..

Cheers,
James
--
James Brown

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
The "Office" as you call it will be updating shortly.


Updating? Not sure I like the sound of that!

Victor

"James Brown" wrote in message
...
Furthermore the large warm pool of waters in the North Sea and channel
will ameliorate any cold weather from the east for some time to come.

The warm North Sea will make cold weather coming in from the East better ?!

Joe

In article ,
Victor West writes:

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
The "Office" as you call it will be updating shortly.


Updating? Not sure I like the sound of that!

But this could be the update where they say: "Forget 1995-6. The popular
press were right after all. It's going to be as bad/good as 1962-3."
--
John Hall
Johnson: "Well, we had a good talk."
Boswell: "Yes, Sir, you tossed and gored several persons."
Dr Samuel Johnson (1709-84); James Boswell (1740-95)

"Victor West" wrote in message
...

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
The "Office" as you call it will be updating shortly.


Updating? Not sure I like the sound of that!

Victor

Yes Victor watch out for a Nuance warning on Amber alert. Plenty of
depression I feel.

In message , Joe Hunt
writes

"James Brown" wrote in message
. ..
Furthermore the large warm pool of waters in the North Sea and channel
will ameliorate any cold weather from the east for some time to come.

The warm North Sea will make cold weather coming in from the East better ?!

Joe



Thanks Joe - you are right of course to pull me up for slip-shod use of
language. For those who hate an icy blast - I suppose you could just
about say it has 'improved' (dict def) the weather.

Apologies
James
--
James Brown