It seems like for the third autumn out of 6, we are going through a
period of intense wet weather. Have such spells always been so common
or are they down to warmer seas these days, linked to the warmer
summers and winters compared to 20 years ago?

Looking back to the 80s and early 90s a typical wet spell was much more
moderate in nature, with lows travelling much further north and only
moderate rainfall of an intensity not sufficient to cause flooding.
Descriptions of southern England's weather often use words like
"moderate". These days, systems which produce torrential rainfall in
the winter months seem to be much more common, meaning that a typical
southern England autumn/winter is becoming a much more unpleasant
experience than the traditional "moderate" climate. Lows seem to be
following a much more southern track than traditionally, meaning
(presumably) they develop over warmer seas and hence carry more
moisture. Linked to this, long cold/frosty spells - even with the
absence of snow - appear to be less common than previously. I remember
long settled spells in winter throughout the 80s and early 90s, even in
the years when not much snow fell.

The region also seems to be becoming increasingly seasonal with its
rainfall, developing a clear "(relatively) dry season" (March to
September) and "wet season" (October to January) with February being
transitional, having a tendency to go one way or the other.

I guess the warming of the seas is giving north-western Europe a rather
bizarre climate. The northerly location prevents a Mediterranean or
tropical climate, but the warm seas are producing tropical-intensity
rainfall with relatively moderate surface temperatures....


Nick