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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for 12z on Friday. Issued 0549z,
7/11/05. The models now show signs of a change with high pressure building to the west. The end of the week will still see unsettled weather close to the UK though, with northern areas bearing the brunt. There's considerable disagreement regarding the track of the Azores High ridge at the end of next weekend, with MetO showing it forcing a low SE'wards across Ireland. GFS brings it across as a weak ridge on Sunday, as does ECM. As ever, more runs are needed. ECMWF: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Recm1201.gif Strong SW'lies cover the whole of the UK with a trough over Ireland. The trough moves eastwards at T+144 to allow NW'lies to affect most areas, with gale force winds across Scotland. A ridge topples SE'wards over the UK at T+168, bringing northerlies to parts of England and westerlies elsewhere. MetO: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rukm1201.gif MetO westerlies for all with two lows to the WNW and NE of the UK. A ridge lies further to the west and by T+144 it moves eastwards, introducing northerlies to Scotland and Northern Ireland. Elsewhere winds are SE'lies or easterlies as the low to the west of Scotland moves swiftly SSE'wards and fills. GFS: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn1201.gif A deep low lies to the north with a trough across England. For eastern areas of England winds are SW'lies, with westerlies elsewhere. A weak ridge crosses the UK at T+144, bringing a mixture of westerlies and WNW'lies, followed by WSW'lies at T+168 as another trough approaches the UK. GEM: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rgem1201.gif A small low covers northern Scotland and elsewhere winds are strong SW'lies. GME/DWD: http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...070000_120.gif The UK lies between a low to the NE and a high to the WSW, with WNW'lies for all. A weak ridge crosses the UK at T+144 to bring westerlies and WNW'lies. By T+168 a deep trough forms to the east, leading to NW'lies for all. JMA: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rjma1201.gif The Japanese run shows SW'lies for all and a low to the west of Ireland. A col covers much of the UK at T+144, although Northern Ireland lies under northerlies from a ridge. NOGAPS: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rngp1201.gif NOGAPS shows SW'lies across the UK with a low to the west. The SW'lies ease at T+144 as the low moves away to the NE. KMA: http://www.kma.go.kr/kma03/gif/g21nh_smsr_120.gif The Korean model shows westerlies for all with the UK between a high to the SW and a low to the NE. MM5 snow forecast: http://rain.mmm.ucar.edu/mm5/plots/n...snoc.hr120.gif No snow is forecast to lie over the UK at T+120. |
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