Dear All

Is it me or do the strongest gradients associated with the storm seem a
little further south than expected over western Ireland?

Maybe I'm just seeing things !

994mb to 967mb (27mb) in 12 hours is very good going, though!

Richard

In message , Richard Dixon
writes
Dear All

Is it me or do the strongest gradients associated with the storm seem a
little further south than expected over western Ireland?

Maybe I'm just seeing things !

994mb to 967mb (27mb) in 12 hours is very good going, though!

Richard

Interesting to see that UKMO have the 1200z centre as 967 mb at about
56N 10.5W whereas DWD have it as about 975 mb at 59N 10W.

When there is such a difference in the analysis is it any wonder that
there are differences in the forecasts of future developments.

Norman.
(delete "thisbit" twice to e-mail)
--
Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy
Chalfont St Giles 85m a.s.l.
England

Norman.
The 1200z MSG image would put the centre at about 58.5N 11W, and my own UK
1200z analysis puts it at 58.5N 12W 972 mbar.
Can it be true that Met O now issue the 'analysis' directly from the model
without checking for ground truth?

--
Bernard Burton
Wokingham, Berkshire, UK.

Satellite images at:
www.btinternet.com/~wokingham.weather/wwp.html
"Norman Lynagh" wrote in
message ...
In message , Richard Dixon
writes
Dear All

Is it me or do the strongest gradients associated with the storm seem a
little further south than expected over western Ireland?

Maybe I'm just seeing things !

994mb to 967mb (27mb) in 12 hours is very good going, though!

Richard

Interesting to see that UKMO have the 1200z centre as 967 mb at about
56N 10.5W whereas DWD have it as about 975 mb at 59N 10W.

When there is such a difference in the analysis is it any wonder that
there are differences in the forecasts of future developments.

Norman.
(delete "thisbit" twice to e-mail)
--
Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy
Chalfont St Giles 85m a.s.l.
England

On Fri, 11 Nov 2005 17:51:55 +0000, Norman Lynagh wrote in


Is it me or do the strongest gradients associated with the storm seem a
little further south than expected over western Ireland?
Maybe I'm just seeing things !
994mb to 967mb (27mb) in 12 hours is very good going, though!

Interesting to see that UKMO have the 1200z centre as 967 mb at about
56N 10.5W whereas DWD have it as about 975 mb at 59N 10W.

Given the winds recorded here in Ireland, I'd have to go with the DWD
analysis, backing up the Bernard's interpretation of the sat pics. The
speeds were well below that suggested by the 12Z MO ASXX. At 15Z Belmullet
was only recording 27kts and Malin peaked at only F8.

When there is such a difference in the analysis is it any wonder that
there are differences in the forecasts of future developments.

Indeed:-)


--
Mike 55.13°N 6.69°W Coleraine posted to uk.sci.weather 11/11/2005 18:49:06 UTC

In message , Mike Tullett
writes
On Fri, 11 Nov 2005 17:51:55 +0000, Norman Lynagh wrote in


Is it me or do the strongest gradients associated with the storm seem a
little further south than expected over western Ireland?
Maybe I'm just seeing things !
994mb to 967mb (27mb) in 12 hours is very good going, though!

Interesting to see that UKMO have the 1200z centre as 967 mb at about
56N 10.5W whereas DWD have it as about 975 mb at 59N 10W.

Given the winds recorded here in Ireland, I'd have to go with the DWD
analysis, backing up the Bernard's interpretation of the sat pics. The
speeds were well below that suggested by the 12Z MO ASXX. At 15Z Belmullet
was only recording 27kts and Malin peaked at only F8.

When there is such a difference in the analysis is it any wonder that
there are differences in the forecasts of future developments.

Indeed:-)

Met Eireann has the centre as 975 mb somewhere near 59N 12W at 1200z.
The UKMO 1200z analysis does have a centre of 971 mb at about that
position. I wonder if there is any ground truth for the 967 mb centre
much further south or if it is a figment of the model's imagination.

Norman.
(delete "thisbit" twice to e-mail)
--
Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy
Chalfont St Giles 85m a.s.l.
England

In message , Norman Lynagh
writes
In message , Mike Tullett
writes
On Fri, 11 Nov 2005 17:51:55 +0000, Norman Lynagh wrote in


Is it me or do the strongest gradients associated with the storm seem a
little further south than expected over western Ireland?
Maybe I'm just seeing things !
994mb to 967mb (27mb) in 12 hours is very good going, though!

Interesting to see that UKMO have the 1200z centre as 967 mb at about
56N 10.5W whereas DWD have it as about 975 mb at 59N 10W.

Given the winds recorded here in Ireland, I'd have to go with the DWD
analysis, backing up the Bernard's interpretation of the sat pics. The
speeds were well below that suggested by the 12Z MO ASXX. At 15Z Belmullet
was only recording 27kts and Malin peaked at only F8.

When there is such a difference in the analysis is it any wonder that
there are differences in the forecasts of future developments.

Indeed:-)

Met Eireann has the centre as 975 mb somewhere near 59N 12W at 1200z.
The UKMO 1200z analysis does have a centre of 971 mb at about that
position. I wonder if there is any ground truth for the 967 mb centre
much further south or if it is a figment of the model's imagination.

Apologies for responding to my own post but I've been looking a bit more
closely at this. Data buoy 62105 at 55.4N 12.5W reported a pressure of
991.8 mb at 1200z. This was consistent with hourly pressures reported in
the hours before and after 1200z so it looks to be OK. The Met Office
1200z analysis shows a pressure of something like 972 mb at that
location i.e about 20 mb lower than was actually reported. It certainly
looks to be a very dodgy analysis.

Norman.
(delete "thisbit" twice to e-mail)
--
Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy
Chalfont St Giles 85m a.s.l.
England

"Norman Lynagh"
position. I wonder if there is any ground truth for the 967 mb centre much
further south or if it is a figment of the model's imagination.

Apologies for responding to my own post but I've been looking a bit more
closely at this. Data buoy 62105 at 55.4N 12.5W reported a pressure of
991.8 mb at 1200z. This was consistent with hourly pressures reported in
the hours before and after 1200z so it looks to be OK. The Met Office
1200z analysis shows a pressure of something like 972 mb at that location
i.e about 20 mb lower than was actually reported. It certainly looks to be
a very dodgy analysis.

Norman.
the K5 buoy bottomed out at 971 hPa
11111400 ENE 4.1- 6.0 10-- 971.0 -3.6 11.1 11.1 9.2---

so that's in the ball park for the NW low centre.Odd there's a gap in the
buoys up the west coast there,

--
regards,
David

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