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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for 12z on Friday. Issued 0557z,
14/11/05. The models show high pressure in charge for the end of the working week. Beyond that things are much less certain, although the most popular outcome today is for the high to move southeastwards into mainland Europe with milder, less settled weather affecting Northern Ireland and Scotland. However, the GFS ensembles show a significant proportion of members (~33%) going for a colder outlook. As ever, more runs are needed. ECMWF: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Recm1201.gif High pressure covers the UK, bringing light winds to most areas. SE England and East Anglia lie under northerlies, with further northerlies for SE England at T+144. Elsewhere winds become SW'lies as the high sinks southwards, followed by WSW'lies at T+168 with the high by now over France. MetO: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rukm1201.gif MetO shows a high to the east with light winds across the UK. The high builds over England and Wales at T+144 with westerlies for Scotland and SW'lies for Northern Ireland. GFS: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn1201.gif High pressure covers the UK with light winds for all. There's little change at T+144 but by T+168 the high declines and starts to move southwards; winds remain light for most but SW'lies start to affect NW Scotland and Northern Ireland. GEM: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rgem1201.gif The Canadian run shows light winds across the UK with high pressure over the British Isles. The high builds and moves SE'wards over northern France at T+144; this leads to SW'lies for Northern Ireland and Scotland, with light southerlies and SW'lies for England and Wales. GME/DWD: http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...140000_120.gif As with the other runs, high pressure dominates the UK. Winds are northerlies across SE England and East Anglia, with light winds over the remainder of the UK. The high declines over Scotland and Northern Ireland at T+144, introducing northerlies and NE'lies elsewhere. JMA: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rjma1201.gif The Japanese run shows a high over the English Channel with a ridge northwards. This results in SW'lies for Northern Ireland and Scotland, with light winds for England and Wales. A weak trough moves eastwards at T+144 to bring westerlies and NW'lies across the UK. NOGAPS: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rngp1201.gif NOGAPS brings a ridge across Scotland and Wales, with southerlies for Northern Ireland and northerlies over England. There's little change at T+144. KMA: http://www.kma.go.kr/kma03/gif/g21nh_smsr_120.gif The UK lies under southerlies due to a large high to the east. MM5 snow forecast: http://rain.mmm.ucar.edu/mm5/plots/n...snoc.hr120.gif No snow is forecast to lie over the UK at T+120. |
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