Over the last few days, the GFS runs have been suggesting a generally cold
setup for the next couple of weeks.

This morning the runs indicate that the frost that we might get in the next
few nights might be the last for a while :-(

It was all a bit early anyway, I shouldn't worry about at the moment.
Another month then I'll be looking a bit closer.

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net

"Brendan DJ Murphy" wrote in message
...
Over the last few days, the GFS runs have been suggesting a generally cold
setup for the next couple of weeks.

This morning the runs indicate that the frost that we might get in the
next few nights might be the last for a while :-(


What do you expect with the GFS. Last night it had underlined a succession
of outputs with either northerly and easterly components with a fantastic
looking run.
Over on TWO all were excited and becoming increasingly confident - incuding
myself (fool).
In fact so much so I actually awoke around six am to have a look and once
again but like the promises made in the heat of the night that bloody
temptress had gone cold by morning.

"lawrence Jenkins" wrote in message
...

"Brendan DJ Murphy" wrote in message
...
Over the last few days, the GFS runs have been suggesting a generally
cold setup for the next couple of weeks.

This morning the runs indicate that the frost that we might get in the
next few nights might be the last for a while :-(


What do you expect with the GFS. Last night it had underlined a succession
of outputs with either northerly and easterly components with a fantastic
looking run.
Over on TWO all were excited and becoming increasingly confident -
incuding myself (fool).
In fact so much so I actually awoke around six am to have a look and once
again but like the promises made in the heat of the night that bloody
temptress had gone cold by morning.

GFS
What a difference six hours make !
I wish it wouldnt throw in those anomalies ?

"lawrence Jenkins" writes:

"lawrence Jenkins" wrote in message
...

"Brendan DJ Murphy" wrote in message
...
Over the last few days, the GFS runs have been suggesting a generally
cold setup for the next couple of weeks.

This morning the runs indicate that the frost that we might get in the
next few nights might be the last for a while :-(


What do you expect with the GFS. Last night it had underlined a succession
of outputs with either northerly and easterly components with a fantastic
looking run.
Over on TWO all were excited and becoming increasingly confident -
incuding myself (fool).
In fact so much so I actually awoke around six am to have a look and once
again but like the promises made in the heat of the night that bloody
temptress had gone cold by morning.

GFS
What a difference six hours make !
I wish it wouldnt throw in those anomalies ?

If you look at the ensemble plots at

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavnmgeur.html

it is clear that the model runs diverge greatly after the 21st with, for
example, 850 hPa temperatures for London ranging between -10C and +8C by the
24th (from the runs at 2005-11-16 00:00Z). The operational run sits in the
upper part of the distribution.

Cheers,
--
Richard Stamper

You cannot use that one operational run as the GFS long range view. You have
to look at all the ensembles to get an idea. Why people bother looking at
that one published run I'll never understand.
Add below URL to your favourites and use that instead.
http://217.160.75.104/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

------------------------------------------------------------------
"Brendan DJ Murphy" wrote in message
...
Over the last few days, the GFS runs have been suggesting a generally cold
setup for the next couple of weeks.

This morning the runs indicate that the frost that we might get in the
next
few nights might be the last for a while :-(

Brendan DJ Murphy wrote:
Over the last few days, the GFS runs have been suggesting a generally cold
setup for the next couple of weeks.

This morning the runs indicate that the frost that we might get in the next
few nights might be the last for a while :-(

Good!

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

"lawrence Jenkins" wrote in message
...

"Brendan DJ Murphy" wrote in message
...
Over the last few days, the GFS runs have been suggesting a generally cold
setup for the next couple of weeks.

This morning the runs indicate that the frost that we might get in the
next few nights might be the last for a while :-(


What do you expect with the GFS. Last night it had underlined a succession
of outputs with either northerly and easterly components with a fantastic
looking run.
Over on TWO all were excited and becoming increasingly confident - incuding
myself (fool).
In fact so much so I actually awoke around six am to have a look and once
again but like the promises made in the heat of the night that bloody
temptress had gone cold by morning.



Lawrence, and others. What I do in preparing my weekly forecasts is look at all
the model deterministic runs and see how similar they are. That instantly gives
me an idea of predictability. Then I look at the ensembles. The spaghetti maps I
use for uncertainty in specific geographical regions but you have to be
proficient in relating 500mb height patterns to expected sea-level developments.
Then I look at the ensemble means which tell me the median and most likely
solution in *general* terms. Then I try and relate all that to regional
variations if possible. It helps if the deterministic (operational) run is close
to the ensembles as then I can glean more detail such as precipitation,
temperature etc. Then I go into my brain banks and see how all that is backed up
by experience and recent patterns etc. I would do the above every day. Then I
sit down and write the forecast on a thursday evening!

The 00Z run of the GFS was clearly a mild outlier as Danny pointed out. The
ensemble mean showed the high retrogressing, moving west, next week. Confidence
in this was moderate looking at the spaghetti charts. Retrogression is
definitely on the cards as very cold air gets established over eastern Europe
and (dare I say it) a negative NAO is becoming established. So confidence ATM in
retrogression and continued cold is moderate.

Lawrence, you will appreciate that forecasting the weather is a specialised and
skilled operation which is why you have people like me to do it :-)

ATB,

Will.
--

" Ah yet another day to enjoy "
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

"lawrence Jenkins" wrote in message
...

"Brendan DJ Murphy" wrote in message
...
Over the last few days, the GFS runs have been suggesting a generally
cold
setup for the next couple of weeks.

This morning the runs indicate that the frost that we might get in the
next few nights might be the last for a while :-(


What do you expect with the GFS. Last night it had underlined a
succession
of outputs with either northerly and easterly components with a fantastic
looking run.
Over on TWO all were excited and becoming increasingly confident -
incuding
myself (fool).
In fact so much so I actually awoke around six am to have a look and once
again but like the promises made in the heat of the night that bloody
temptress had gone cold by morning.



Lawrence, and others. What I do in preparing my weekly forecasts is look
at all
the model deterministic runs and see how similar they are. That instantly
gives
me an idea of predictability. Then I look at the ensembles. The spaghetti
maps I
use for uncertainty in specific geographical regions but you have to be
proficient in relating 500mb height patterns to expected sea-level
developments.
Then I look at the ensemble means which tell me the median and most likely
solution in *general* terms. Then I try and relate all that to regional
variations if possible. It helps if the deterministic (operational) run is
close
to the ensembles as then I can glean more detail such as precipitation,
temperature etc. Then I go into my brain banks and see how all that is
backed up
by experience and recent patterns etc. I would do the above every day.
Then I
sit down and write the forecast on a thursday evening!

The 00Z run of the GFS was clearly a mild outlier as Danny pointed out.
The
ensemble mean showed the high retrogressing, moving west, next week.
Confidence
in this was moderate looking at the spaghetti charts. Retrogression is
definitely on the cards as very cold air gets established over eastern
Europe
and (dare I say it) a negative NAO is becoming established. So confidence
ATM in
retrogression and continued cold is moderate.

Lawrence, you will appreciate that forecasting the weather is a
specialised and
skilled operation which is why you have people like me to do it :-)

ATB,

Will.
--

" Ah yet another day to enjoy "
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www:
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Too true too true. It's got to the stage where anyone who logs on to
Topkarten thinks he/she is an expert LRF. Well said Will

Will Hand wrote:

Lawrence, you will appreciate that forecasting the weather is a specialised and
skilled operation which is why you have people like me to do it :-)

ATB,

Will.

Yes, you do put the 'lid' back on Will, but without being disappointed
it nice to look at those MRF charts.
Incidentally, why is the 12:00 run always on the cold side, whereas in
the morning the 00:00 run goes for the mild side. Do they have two
forecasters with different preference's g
Now that's what I call a NEGATIVE NAO :-)

http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/Rtavn3361.gif

I do feel that the run up to Christmas could be very interesting and
action packed, I'm not so sure that after that January and February
maybe pretty mediocre.

--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net