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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for 12z on Monday. Issued 0554z,
17/11/05. The models are still varying a fair bit in the way they handle high pressure next week. The pattern looks like seeing an upper ridge to the west of the UK, which in theory should open the doors to a northerly. Several of the runs show a northerly of some sorts kicking in, but it's unlikely to be particularly cold due to the Atlantic source of the air. ECMWF: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Recm1201.gif The ECM shows high pressure extending from NW Russia via Scandinavia to the North Sea, bringing easterlies across England and Wales. Northern Ireland lies under ESE'lies while much of Scotland lies under southerlies. There's little change at T+144, but by T+168 the winds become NNE'lies and northerlies as the ridge becomes a high and builds to the west of the UK. MetO: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rukm1201.gif MetO shows light winds for most due to a ridge from a high over Germany, the exception being NW Scotland which lies under SW'lies. Pressure rises over SE England at T+144, leading to SE'lies for southern England and westerlies for Northern Ireland and Scotland. GFS: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn1201.gif High pressure covers the UK with light winds for all. By T+144 the high builds and moves northwards, introducing ENE'lies for much of England and Wales. The high builds to the NW at T+168, leading to NE'lies for all. GEM: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rgem1201.gif Westerlies cover much of the UK with a high over the English Channel. The high moves westwards at T+144, allowing mild WNW'lies to cover the UK. GME/DWD: http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...170000_120.gif A large high covers NW Russia and a ridge extends SW'wards to bring easterlies for much of England and Wales, with southerlies elsewhere. T+144 sees a low move westwards to bring northerlies to eastern areas of the UK. The remainder lies under a ridge with light winds. By T+168 a low moves swiftly SE'wards from Iceland and this leads to light winds over the UK, as the other low still lies over the southern North Sea. JMA: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rjma1201.gif The Japanese run shows high pressure over the UK with SSW'lies for Northern Ireland and Scotland. Pressure builds at T+144, leading to easterlies across England and Wales, with southerlies elsewhere. NOGAPS: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rngp1201.gif NOGAPS shows light winds for all with a high atop the UK. KMA: http://www.kma.go.kr/kma03/gif/g21nh_smsr_120.gif A mixture of SE'lies and southerlies cover the UK from a ridge to the east. MM5 snow forecast: http://rain.mmm.ucar.edu/mm5/plots/n...snoc.hr120.gif No snow is forecast to lie over the UK at T+120. |
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