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Old November 17th 05, 05:59 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Today's model interpretation (17/11/05)

Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for 12z on Monday. Issued 0554z,
17/11/05.

The models are still varying a fair bit in the way they handle high pressure
next week. The pattern looks like seeing an upper ridge to the west of the
UK, which in theory should open the doors to a northerly. Several of the
runs show a northerly of some sorts kicking in, but it's unlikely to be
particularly cold due to the Atlantic source of the air.

ECMWF: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Recm1201.gif
The ECM shows high pressure extending from NW Russia via Scandinavia to the
North Sea, bringing easterlies across England and Wales. Northern Ireland
lies under ESE'lies while much of Scotland lies under southerlies. There's
little change at T+144, but by T+168 the winds become NNE'lies and
northerlies as the ridge becomes a high and builds to the west of the UK.

MetO: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rukm1201.gif
MetO shows light winds for most due to a ridge from a high over Germany, the
exception being NW Scotland which lies under SW'lies. Pressure rises over SE
England at T+144, leading to SE'lies for southern England and westerlies for
Northern Ireland and Scotland.

GFS: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn1201.gif
High pressure covers the UK with light winds for all. By T+144 the high
builds and moves northwards, introducing ENE'lies for much of England and
Wales. The high builds to the NW at T+168, leading to NE'lies for all.

GEM: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rgem1201.gif
Westerlies cover much of the UK with a high over the English Channel. The
high moves westwards at T+144, allowing mild WNW'lies to cover the UK.

GME/DWD:
http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...170000_120.gif
A large high covers NW Russia and a ridge extends SW'wards to bring
easterlies for much of England and Wales, with southerlies elsewhere. T+144
sees a low move westwards to bring northerlies to eastern areas of the UK.
The remainder lies under a ridge with light winds. By T+168 a low moves
swiftly SE'wards from Iceland and this leads to light winds over the UK, as
the other low still lies over the southern North Sea.

JMA: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rjma1201.gif
The Japanese run shows high pressure over the UK with SSW'lies for Northern
Ireland and Scotland. Pressure builds at T+144, leading to easterlies across
England and Wales, with southerlies elsewhere.

NOGAPS: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rngp1201.gif
NOGAPS shows light winds for all with a high atop the UK.

KMA: http://www.kma.go.kr/kma03/gif/g21nh_smsr_120.gif
A mixture of SE'lies and southerlies cover the UK from a ridge to the east.

MM5 snow forecast:
http://rain.mmm.ucar.edu/mm5/plots/n...snoc.hr120.gif
No snow is forecast to lie over the UK at T+120.



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