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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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#11
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Lawrence Jenkins wrote:
"Ian Waddell" wrote in message oups.com... I understand where you're all coming from - but this is the wholesale gas price increasing. The price is dictated in the same way as oil - i.e. by the traders in London (and elsewhere) buying and selling options on the exchanges. Now, these people do get things wrong, but generally the movement of these prices (driven by supply & demand) is due to the data they use in making their decisions. That is, if wholesale gas prices don't actually climb in the coming months, these traders lose a lot of money. So, they must have reason to believe that the price will increase, to buy this many options in a week and force the market prices up. This could be due to a couple of things: 1. Data from the supplier stating they plan to increase prices this winter (without any reference to demand for the stuff) 2. An expectation that consumer demand will soar (cold winter?) forcing prices up So, it could just be a scam to prepare us for bad news - or an announcement of some kind energy policy, but for the government/energy companies to somehow force prices up themselves, is slightly too hard to believe. Ian Take your points Ian but number two says something to me. Of course a cold winter has been predicted for the Eastern USA and Japan, ALL the main users. -- Keith (Southend) http://www.southendweather.net |
#12
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![]() "Ian Waddell" wrote in message oups.com... I understand where you're all coming from - but this is the wholesale gas price increasing. The price is dictated in the same way as oil - i.e. by the traders in London (and elsewhere) buying and selling options on the exchanges. Now, these people do get things wrong, but generally the movement of these prices (driven by supply & demand) is due to the data they use in making their decisions. That is, if wholesale gas prices don't actually climb in the coming months, these traders lose a lot of money. So, they must have reason to believe that the price will increase, to buy this many options in a week and force the market prices up. This could be due to a couple of things: 1. Data from the supplier stating they plan to increase prices this winter (without any reference to demand for the stuff) 2. An expectation that consumer demand will soar (cold winter?) forcing prices up So, it could just be a scam to prepare us for bad news - or an announcement of some kind energy policy, but for the government/energy companies to somehow force prices up themselves, is slightly too hard to believe. Ian The regulations state that gas suppiers should have enough gas to meet demand in a winter of 1 in 50 severity and to meet a 1 in 20 peak day. This is not the case for this winter as there is an imbalance caused by the decline in production from existing fields not being met until additional gas supplies are delivered which includes the importation of liquid natural gas. The consequnce of this shortfall is that the seasonal gas storage facilities need to be used earlier than is ideal. This means that they will be empty before the end of a 1 in 50 winter. If anyone is really interested they can go to the National Grid website and read the 10 year statement about gas supples demand and capacity. Alan |
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