For the saying to make some sense meteorologically I think you have to infer
that ice on a pond in November means a colder than average month not just a
short cold spell- but how cold? I did some study of it some years ago and
the 4F or around 2.8C below average or colder November is indeed more prone
to mild weather in the following winter. If you use it for the 20th century
for the SE quadrant 1901, 1905,1910, 1915, 1919,1921, 1923,1925, 1952, 1985
and not that cold 1993 or 1980 were followed by mild winters and certainly
not really cold winters. 1901 was cold and of course Feb 1986 was severe.
There are certainly less frequent cold November now.

On another note Issue 19 of Weather eye is now being printed and will be out
soon with a real variety of topics.

Ian Currie-Coulsdon
www.frostedearth.com