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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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#41
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In article ,
Peter Hayes writes: John Hall wrote: In article , Peter Hayes writes: Keith (Southend) wrote: Peter Hayes wrote: How much does the Gulf Stream contribute to warming the UK compared to our traditional warm and moist south westerlies? Surely the two go hand in hand. Would we lose these warm and moist south westerlies if the Gulf Stream stopped? No, but they would be less warm and perhaps less prevalent. So in practice the cooling caused by the loss of the Gulf Stream will be reduced by warm Atlantic air Well that Atlantic air won't be quite as warm as it would have been with the Gulf Stream in place. and heat from southern Europe and north Africa. Not necessarily. There could be more easterlies and north-easterlies, which in winter would be cold. -- John Hall "He crams with cans of poisoned meat The subjects of the King, And when they die by thousands G.K.Chesterton: Why, he laughs like anything." from "Song Against Grocers" |
#42
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Basically, colder in winter due to persistent high pressure systems ( more
Easterlies ) and hotter/dryer in summer for exactly the same reasons (unless you live on the East coast of course ). I think I stated this on an earlier post. The Little Ice Age had a similar increase in high pressure systems. There were periods of poor summers but this may have been more to do with reduced solar output, e.g. Maunder Minimum. Our next Maunder Minimum type of event is due I believe by 2030. Have a look at: http://homepage.ntlworld.com/booty.w...histclimat.htm for a complete climate history of the UK. Shaun Pudwell. "Peter Hayes" wrote in message news:1h70lzz.fgltzh1mvehpuN%not_in_use@btinternet. com... John Hall wrote: In article , Peter Hayes writes: Keith (Southend) wrote: Peter Hayes wrote: How much does the Gulf Stream contribute to warming the UK compared to our traditional warm and moist south westerlies? Surely the two go hand in hand. Would we lose these warm and moist south westerlies if the Gulf Stream stopped? No, but they would be less warm and perhaps less prevalent. So in practice the cooling caused by the loss of the Gulf Stream will be reduced by warm Atlantic air and heat from southern Europe and north Africa. -- Peter |
#43
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John Hall wrote:
In article , Peter Hayes writes: Keith (Southend) wrote: Peter Hayes wrote: How much does the Gulf Stream contribute to warming the UK compared to our traditional warm and moist south westerlies? Surely the two go hand in hand. Would we lose these warm and moist south westerlies if the Gulf Stream stopped? No, but they would be less warm and perhaps less prevalent. My guess is that the change in sea temperature pattern would produce a virtually permanent change to a strongly positive NAO, with strong, cyclonic westerlies prevailing over the UK. This is assuming the SST anomaly work by Lamb and others in the 60s still applied. In Summer, in spite of increased cyclonicity, it is likely that the weather would be drier than it is now - due to the reduced amount of moisture picked up from the cold sea to the west of the UK - dull, except to the lee of high ground where there would be breaks in the Sc sheet, and cool. In Winter, the weather pattern should prevail but the cold ocean would still be warm enough to add moisture to the cold air sweeping eastwards into the Atlantic from Canada. This means that we could see cold winters with snow showers affecting west-facing coasts. Longer periods of snow could be associated with frontal waves running across, or to the south of the country or *maybe* polar lows running eastwards across the Atlantic. One further thought. If this change in circulation comes about, what will be the effect on the Arctic? The change in circulation will not only cut off the supply of warm water from the Gulf Stream source, the water returning to the Arctic from the returning Labrador and East Greenland currents will not only be colder but less saline. How will that impact ice cover in the Arctic? Could there be a cooling of the Arctic, reduced melting of the Greenland ice and, consequently, a switching back on of the NAD? -- Graham Davis Bracknell |
#44
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It is my understanding that once there has been a flip in ocean circulation
states, the new state would not only be stable but dominant and would be very hard to change back. There would I imagine be more extensive sea ice in and around the Arctic during the winter but don't know if the same would apply to summer as well. Shaun Pudwell. "Graham P Davis" wrote in message ... John Hall wrote: In article , Peter Hayes writes: Keith (Southend) wrote: Peter Hayes wrote: How much does the Gulf Stream contribute to warming the UK compared to our traditional warm and moist south westerlies? Surely the two go hand in hand. Would we lose these warm and moist south westerlies if the Gulf Stream stopped? No, but they would be less warm and perhaps less prevalent. My guess is that the change in sea temperature pattern would produce a virtually permanent change to a strongly positive NAO, with strong, cyclonic westerlies prevailing over the UK. This is assuming the SST anomaly work by Lamb and others in the 60s still applied. In Summer, in spite of increased cyclonicity, it is likely that the weather would be drier than it is now - due to the reduced amount of moisture picked up from the cold sea to the west of the UK - dull, except to the lee of high ground where there would be breaks in the Sc sheet, and cool. In Winter, the weather pattern should prevail but the cold ocean would still be warm enough to add moisture to the cold air sweeping eastwards into the Atlantic from Canada. This means that we could see cold winters with snow showers affecting west-facing coasts. Longer periods of snow could be associated with frontal waves running across, or to the south of the country or *maybe* polar lows running eastwards across the Atlantic. One further thought. If this change in circulation comes about, what will be the effect on the Arctic? The change in circulation will not only cut off the supply of warm water from the Gulf Stream source, the water returning to the Arctic from the returning Labrador and East Greenland currents will not only be colder but less saline. How will that impact ice cover in the Arctic? Could there be a cooling of the Arctic, reduced melting of the Greenland ice and, consequently, a switching back on of the NAD? -- Graham Davis Bracknell |
#45
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Shaun Pudwell wrote:
It is my understanding that once there has been a flip in ocean circulation states, the new state would not only be stable but dominant and would be very hard to change back. There would I imagine be more extensive sea ice in and around the Arctic during the winter but don't know if the same would apply to summer as well. Shaun Pudwell. "Graham P Davis" wrote in message ... John Hall wrote: In article , Peter Hayes writes: Keith (Southend) wrote: Peter Hayes wrote: How much does the Gulf Stream contribute to warming the UK compared to our traditional warm and moist south westerlies? Surely the two go hand in hand. Would we lose these warm and moist south westerlies if the Gulf Stream stopped? No, but they would be less warm and perhaps less prevalent. My guess is that the change in sea temperature pattern would produce a virtually permanent change to a strongly positive NAO, with strong, cyclonic westerlies prevailing over the UK. This is assuming the SST anomaly work by Lamb and others in the 60s still applied. In Summer, in spite of increased cyclonicity, it is likely that the weather would be drier than it is now - due to the reduced amount of moisture picked up from the cold sea to the west of the UK - dull, except to the lee of high ground where there would be breaks in the Sc sheet, and cool. In Winter, the weather pattern should prevail but the cold ocean would still be warm enough to add moisture to the cold air sweeping eastwards into the Atlantic from Canada. This means that we could see cold winters with snow showers affecting west-facing coasts. Longer periods of snow could be associated with frontal waves running across, or to the south of the country or *maybe* polar lows running eastwards across the Atlantic. One further thought. If this change in circulation comes about, what will be the effect on the Arctic? The change in circulation will not only cut off the supply of warm water from the Gulf Stream source, the water returning to the Arctic from the returning Labrador and East Greenland currents will not only be colder but less saline. How will that impact ice cover in the Arctic? Could there be a cooling of the Arctic, reduced melting of the Greenland ice and, consequently, a switching back on of the NAD? -- Graham Davis Bracknell Just a moment, if this is all because of Global warming, are we not forgetting a few present facts, for example it is said the the Arctic is already 5C warmer and from a non scientific view point, if the ice is melting so quickly why should it suddenly turn up somewhere else. What about all those other influences of Global warming, such as the more frequent heat waves such as in France recently. Surely all this extra heat must be thrown in the melting pot and not give such a cooling effect that every one seems to believe. Recently we had a low originating from Spitzbergen, which brought cold air and some snow in the west, but it (in my opinion) was not anything like as cold as we would have had maybe 40 years ago, and soon replaced by the usual mild wet downpours (60mm) here in Somerset in December. A less scientific view Alan |
#46
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In message , Alan
Whitewick writes Just a moment, if this is all because of Global warming, are we not forgetting a few present facts, for example it is said the the Arctic is already 5C warmer and from a non scientific view point, if the ice is melting so quickly why should it suddenly turn up somewhere else. What about all those other influences of Global warming, such as the more frequent heat waves such as in France recently. Surely all this extra heat must be thrown in the melting pot and not give such a cooling effect that every one seems to believe. Recently we had a low originating from Spitzbergen, which brought cold air and some snow in the west, but it (in my opinion) was not anything like as cold as we would have had maybe 40 years ago, and soon replaced by the usual mild wet downpours (60mm) here in Somerset in December. A less scientific view Alan I think you would find that snow on the ground at Penzance in November was a pretty rare event even 40 years ago. Despite the overall warming globally the situation is much more complicated on regional and local scales. For example, in the immediate vicinity of Spitzbergen sea surface temperatures are currently well above the long term average. In contrast, over much of the sea between Spitzbergen and the British Isles sea surface temperatures are currently quite a bit below the long term average. This colder than average water to the north may have been a factor in the detail of the recent cold outbreak in the British Isles. After a spell of sea surface temperatures well above the long term average around the British Isles they have now returned much nearer to average values. In the SW approaches they are a little below the long term average while in the English Channel and much of the North Sea they are a little above average but by nowhere near as much as they were a few weeks ago. The sea temperature of the North Sea is responding quite quickly to the much lower air temperatures experienced recently. Norman. (delete "thisbit" twice to e-mail) -- Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy Chalfont St Giles 85m a.s.l. England |
#47
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Alan Whitewick wrote:
Shaun Pudwell wrote: It is my understanding that once there has been a flip in ocean circulation states, the new state would not only be stable but dominant and would be very hard to change back. There would I imagine be more extensive sea ice in and around the Arctic during the winter but don't know if the same would apply to summer as well. Shaun Pudwell. "Graham P Davis" wrote in message ... John Hall wrote: In article , Peter Hayes writes: Keith (Southend) wrote: Peter Hayes wrote: How much does the Gulf Stream contribute to warming the UK compared to our traditional warm and moist south westerlies? Surely the two go hand in hand. Would we lose these warm and moist south westerlies if the Gulf Stream stopped? No, but they would be less warm and perhaps less prevalent. My guess is that the change in sea temperature pattern would produce a virtually permanent change to a strongly positive NAO, with strong, cyclonic westerlies prevailing over the UK. This is assuming the SST anomaly work by Lamb and others in the 60s still applied. In Summer, in spite of increased cyclonicity, it is likely that the weather would be drier than it is now - due to the reduced amount of moisture picked up from the cold sea to the west of the UK - dull, except to the lee of high ground where there would be breaks in the Sc sheet, and cool. In Winter, the weather pattern should prevail but the cold ocean would still be warm enough to add moisture to the cold air sweeping eastwards into the Atlantic from Canada. This means that we could see cold winters with snow showers affecting west-facing coasts. Longer periods of snow could be associated with frontal waves running across, or to the south of the country or *maybe* polar lows running eastwards across the Atlantic. One further thought. If this change in circulation comes about, what will be the effect on the Arctic? The change in circulation will not only cut off the supply of warm water from the Gulf Stream source, the water returning to the Arctic from the returning Labrador and East Greenland currents will not only be colder but less saline. How will that impact ice cover in the Arctic? Could there be a cooling of the Arctic, reduced melting of the Greenland ice and, consequently, a switching back on of the NAD? -- Graham Davis Bracknell Just a moment, if this is all because of Global warming, are we not forgetting a few present facts, for example it is said the the Arctic is already 5C warmer and from a non scientific view point, if the ice is melting so quickly why should it suddenly turn up somewhere else. Who said anything about ice turning up somewhere else? What about all those other influences of Global warming, such as the more frequent heat waves such as in France recently. Surely all this extra heat must be thrown in the melting pot and not give such a cooling effect that every one seems to believe. We're talking about a local cooling effect due to a change in ocean currents that has happened before and produced cooling over NW Europe. No doubt this would be balanced by some areas of the the world warming more than would be indicated by AGW alone. Recently we had a low originating from Spitzbergen, which brought cold air and some snow in the west, but it (in my opinion) was not anything like as cold as we would have had maybe 40 years ago, and soon replaced by the usual mild wet downpours (60mm) here in Somerset in December. Agreed. In the sixties, there was more ice off East Greenland and northerlies were colder than they are now, partly as a result of that. This year, ice conditions in that area, the Barents and Kara Seas, at the end of November were closer to that normally experienced at the end of October. A less scientific view Alan -- Graham Davis Bracknell |
#48
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![]() "Norman Lynagh" wrote in message ... In message , Alan Whitewick writes Just a moment, if this is all because of Global warming, are we not forgetting a few present facts, for example it is said the the Arctic is already 5C warmer and from a non scientific view point, if the ice is melting so quickly why should it suddenly turn up somewhere else. What about all those other influences of Global warming, such as the more frequent heat waves such as in France recently. Surely all this extra heat must be thrown in the melting pot and not give such a cooling effect that every one seems to believe. Recently we had a low originating from Spitzbergen, which brought cold air and some snow in the west, but it (in my opinion) was not anything like as cold as we would have had maybe 40 years ago, and soon replaced by the usual mild wet downpours (60mm) here in Somerset in December. A less scientific view Alan I think you would find that snow on the ground at Penzance in November was a pretty rare event even 40 years ago. True, but we still haven't had an air frost, November temperatures were spot on the 1971-2000 norm (above the 1931-1960 norm) and Autumn was the 3rd warmest in the last 15 years. Also the snow in Penzance was in effect 1-2cm of slush, due to the intensity of the fall. Graham Penzance Weather www.easterling.freeserve.co.uk/weather.html Holiday Cottage www.easterling.freeserve.co.uk |
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