In article ,
Peter Hayes writes:
John Hall wrote:

In article ,
Peter Hayes writes:
Keith (Southend) wrote:

Peter Hayes wrote:


How much does the Gulf Stream contribute to warming the UK compared to
our traditional warm and moist south westerlies?


Surely the two go hand in hand.

Would we lose these warm and moist south westerlies if the Gulf Stream
stopped?

No, but they would be less warm and perhaps less prevalent.

So in practice the cooling caused by the loss of the Gulf Stream will be
reduced by warm Atlantic air

Well that Atlantic air won't be quite as warm as it would have been with
the Gulf Stream in place.

and heat from southern Europe and north
Africa.

Not necessarily. There could be more easterlies and north-easterlies,
which in winter would be cold.
--
John Hall "He crams with cans of poisoned meat
The subjects of the King,
And when they die by thousands G.K.Chesterton:
Why, he laughs like anything." from "Song Against Grocers"

Basically, colder in winter due to persistent high pressure systems ( more
Easterlies ) and hotter/dryer in summer for exactly the same reasons (unless
you live on the East coast of course ). I think I stated this on an earlier
post.
The Little Ice Age had a similar increase in high pressure systems. There
were periods of poor summers but this may have been more to do with reduced
solar output, e.g. Maunder Minimum. Our next Maunder Minimum type of event
is due I believe by 2030. Have a look at:
http://homepage.ntlworld.com/booty.w...histclimat.htm for a
complete climate history of the UK.

Shaun Pudwell.


"Peter Hayes" wrote in message
news:1h70lzz.fgltzh1mvehpuN%not_in_use@btinternet. com...
John Hall wrote:

In article ,
Peter Hayes writes:
Keith (Southend) wrote:

Peter Hayes wrote:


How much does the Gulf Stream contribute to warming the UK compared
to
our traditional warm and moist south westerlies?


Surely the two go hand in hand.

Would we lose these warm and moist south westerlies if the Gulf Stream
stopped?

No, but they would be less warm and perhaps less prevalent.

So in practice the cooling caused by the loss of the Gulf Stream will be
reduced by warm Atlantic air and heat from southern Europe and north
Africa.

--

Peter

John Hall wrote:

In article ,
Peter Hayes writes:
Keith (Southend) wrote:

Peter Hayes wrote:


How much does the Gulf Stream contribute to warming the UK compared to
our traditional warm and moist south westerlies?


Surely the two go hand in hand.

Would we lose these warm and moist south westerlies if the Gulf Stream
stopped?

No, but they would be less warm and perhaps less prevalent.

My guess is that the change in sea temperature pattern would produce a
virtually permanent change to a strongly positive NAO, with strong,
cyclonic westerlies prevailing over the UK. This is assuming the SST
anomaly work by Lamb and others in the 60s still applied.

In Summer, in spite of increased cyclonicity, it is likely that the weather
would be drier than it is now - due to the reduced amount of moisture
picked up from the cold sea to the west of the UK - dull, except to the lee
of high ground where there would be breaks in the Sc sheet, and cool.

In Winter, the weather pattern should prevail but the cold ocean would still
be warm enough to add moisture to the cold air sweeping eastwards into the
Atlantic from Canada. This means that we could see cold winters with snow
showers affecting west-facing coasts. Longer periods of snow could be
associated with frontal waves running across, or to the south of the
country or *maybe* polar lows running eastwards across the Atlantic.

One further thought. If this change in circulation comes about, what will be
the effect on the Arctic? The change in circulation will not only cut off
the supply of warm water from the Gulf Stream source, the water returning
to the Arctic from the returning Labrador and East Greenland currents will
not only be colder but less saline. How will that impact ice cover in the
Arctic? Could there be a cooling of the Arctic, reduced melting of the
Greenland ice and, consequently, a switching back on of the NAD?


--
Graham Davis
Bracknell

It is my understanding that once there has been a flip in ocean circulation
states, the new state would not only be stable but dominant and would be
very hard to change back. There would I imagine be more extensive sea ice
in and around the Arctic during the winter but don't know if the same would
apply to summer as well.

Shaun Pudwell.


"Graham P Davis" wrote in message
...
John Hall wrote:

In article ,
Peter Hayes writes:
Keith (Southend) wrote:

Peter Hayes wrote:


How much does the Gulf Stream contribute to warming the UK compared
to
our traditional warm and moist south westerlies?


Surely the two go hand in hand.

Would we lose these warm and moist south westerlies if the Gulf Stream
stopped?

No, but they would be less warm and perhaps less prevalent.

My guess is that the change in sea temperature pattern would produce a
virtually permanent change to a strongly positive NAO, with strong,
cyclonic westerlies prevailing over the UK. This is assuming the SST
anomaly work by Lamb and others in the 60s still applied.

In Summer, in spite of increased cyclonicity, it is likely that the
weather
would be drier than it is now - due to the reduced amount of moisture
picked up from the cold sea to the west of the UK - dull, except to the
lee
of high ground where there would be breaks in the Sc sheet, and cool.

In Winter, the weather pattern should prevail but the cold ocean would
still
be warm enough to add moisture to the cold air sweeping eastwards into the
Atlantic from Canada. This means that we could see cold winters with snow
showers affecting west-facing coasts. Longer periods of snow could be
associated with frontal waves running across, or to the south of the
country or *maybe* polar lows running eastwards across the Atlantic.

One further thought. If this change in circulation comes about, what will
be
the effect on the Arctic? The change in circulation will not only cut off
the supply of warm water from the Gulf Stream source, the water returning
to the Arctic from the returning Labrador and East Greenland currents will
not only be colder but less saline. How will that impact ice cover in the
Arctic? Could there be a cooling of the Arctic, reduced melting of the
Greenland ice and, consequently, a switching back on of the NAD?


--
Graham Davis
Bracknell

Shaun Pudwell wrote:
It is my understanding that once there has been a flip in ocean circulation
states, the new state would not only be stable but dominant and would be
very hard to change back. There would I imagine be more extensive sea ice
in and around the Arctic during the winter but don't know if the same would
apply to summer as well.

Shaun Pudwell.


"Graham P Davis" wrote in message
...

John Hall wrote:


In article ,
Peter Hayes writes:

Keith (Southend) wrote:


Peter Hayes wrote:


How much does the Gulf Stream contribute to warming the UK compared
to
our traditional warm and moist south westerlies?


Surely the two go hand in hand.

Would we lose these warm and moist south westerlies if the Gulf Stream
stopped?


No, but they would be less warm and perhaps less prevalent.

My guess is that the change in sea temperature pattern would produce a
virtually permanent change to a strongly positive NAO, with strong,
cyclonic westerlies prevailing over the UK. This is assuming the SST
anomaly work by Lamb and others in the 60s still applied.

In Summer, in spite of increased cyclonicity, it is likely that the
weather
would be drier than it is now - due to the reduced amount of moisture
picked up from the cold sea to the west of the UK - dull, except to the
lee
of high ground where there would be breaks in the Sc sheet, and cool.

In Winter, the weather pattern should prevail but the cold ocean would
still
be warm enough to add moisture to the cold air sweeping eastwards into the
Atlantic from Canada. This means that we could see cold winters with snow
showers affecting west-facing coasts. Longer periods of snow could be
associated with frontal waves running across, or to the south of the
country or *maybe* polar lows running eastwards across the Atlantic.

One further thought. If this change in circulation comes about, what will
be
the effect on the Arctic? The change in circulation will not only cut off
the supply of warm water from the Gulf Stream source, the water returning
to the Arctic from the returning Labrador and East Greenland currents will
not only be colder but less saline. How will that impact ice cover in the
Arctic? Could there be a cooling of the Arctic, reduced melting of the
Greenland ice and, consequently, a switching back on of the NAD?


--
Graham Davis
Bracknell




Just a moment, if this is all because of Global warming, are we not
forgetting a few present facts, for example it is said the the Arctic is
already 5C warmer and from a non scientific view point, if the ice is
melting so quickly why should it suddenly turn up somewhere else. What
about all those other influences of Global warming, such as the more
frequent heat waves such as in France recently. Surely all this extra
heat must be thrown in the melting pot and not give such a cooling
effect that every one seems to believe.
Recently we had a low originating from Spitzbergen, which brought cold
air and some snow in the west, but it (in my opinion) was not anything
like as cold as we would have had maybe 40 years ago, and soon replaced
by the usual mild wet downpours (60mm) here in Somerset in December.

A less scientific view
Alan

In message , Alan
Whitewick writes
Just a moment, if this is all because of Global warming, are we not
forgetting a few present facts, for example it is said the the Arctic
is already 5C warmer and from a non scientific view point, if the ice
is melting so quickly why should it suddenly turn up somewhere else.
What about all those other influences of Global warming, such as the
more frequent heat waves such as in France recently. Surely all this
extra heat must be thrown in the melting pot and not give such a
cooling effect that every one seems to believe.
Recently we had a low originating from Spitzbergen, which brought cold
air and some snow in the west, but it (in my opinion) was not anything
like as cold as we would have had maybe 40 years ago, and soon replaced
by the usual mild wet downpours (60mm) here in Somerset in December.

A less scientific view
Alan

I think you would find that snow on the ground at Penzance in November
was a pretty rare event even 40 years ago.

Despite the overall warming globally the situation is much more
complicated on regional and local scales. For example, in the immediate
vicinity of Spitzbergen sea surface temperatures are currently well
above the long term average. In contrast, over much of the sea between
Spitzbergen and the British Isles sea surface temperatures are currently
quite a bit below the long term average. This colder than average water
to the north may have been a factor in the detail of the recent cold
outbreak in the British Isles.

After a spell of sea surface temperatures well above the long term
average around the British Isles they have now returned much nearer to
average values. In the SW approaches they are a little below the long
term average while in the English Channel and much of the North Sea they
are a little above average but by nowhere near as much as they were a
few weeks ago. The sea temperature of the North Sea is responding quite
quickly to the much lower air temperatures experienced recently.

Norman.
(delete "thisbit" twice to e-mail)
--
Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy
Chalfont St Giles 85m a.s.l.
England

Alan Whitewick wrote:

Shaun Pudwell wrote:
It is my understanding that once there has been a flip in ocean
circulation states, the new state would not only be stable but dominant
and would be
very hard to change back. There would I imagine be more extensive sea
ice in and around the Arctic during the winter but don't know if the same
would apply to summer as well.

Shaun Pudwell.


"Graham P Davis" wrote in message
...

John Hall wrote:


In article ,
Peter Hayes writes:

Keith (Southend) wrote:


Peter Hayes wrote:


How much does the Gulf Stream contribute to warming the UK compared
to
our traditional warm and moist south westerlies?


Surely the two go hand in hand.

Would we lose these warm and moist south westerlies if the Gulf Stream
stopped?


No, but they would be less warm and perhaps less prevalent.

My guess is that the change in sea temperature pattern would produce a
virtually permanent change to a strongly positive NAO, with strong,
cyclonic westerlies prevailing over the UK. This is assuming the SST
anomaly work by Lamb and others in the 60s still applied.

In Summer, in spite of increased cyclonicity, it is likely that the
weather
would be drier than it is now - due to the reduced amount of moisture
picked up from the cold sea to the west of the UK - dull, except to the
lee
of high ground where there would be breaks in the Sc sheet, and cool.

In Winter, the weather pattern should prevail but the cold ocean would
still
be warm enough to add moisture to the cold air sweeping eastwards into
the Atlantic from Canada. This means that we could see cold winters with
snow showers affecting west-facing coasts. Longer periods of snow could
be associated with frontal waves running across, or to the south of the
country or *maybe* polar lows running eastwards across the Atlantic.

One further thought. If this change in circulation comes about, what will
be
the effect on the Arctic? The change in circulation will not only cut off
the supply of warm water from the Gulf Stream source, the water returning
to the Arctic from the returning Labrador and East Greenland currents
will not only be colder but less saline. How will that impact ice cover
in the Arctic? Could there be a cooling of the Arctic, reduced melting of
the Greenland ice and, consequently, a switching back on of the NAD?


--
Graham Davis
Bracknell




Just a moment, if this is all because of Global warming, are we not
forgetting a few present facts, for example it is said the the Arctic is
already 5C warmer and from a non scientific view point, if the ice is
melting so quickly why should it suddenly turn up somewhere else.

Who said anything about ice turning up somewhere else?

What
about all those other influences of Global warming, such as the more
frequent heat waves such as in France recently. Surely all this extra
heat must be thrown in the melting pot and not give such a cooling
effect that every one seems to believe.

We're talking about a local cooling effect due to a change in ocean currents
that has happened before and produced cooling over NW Europe. No doubt this
would be balanced by some areas of the the world warming more than would be
indicated by AGW alone.

Recently we had a low originating from Spitzbergen, which brought cold
air and some snow in the west, but it (in my opinion) was not anything
like as cold as we would have had maybe 40 years ago, and soon replaced
by the usual mild wet downpours (60mm) here in Somerset in December.


Agreed. In the sixties, there was more ice off East Greenland and
northerlies were colder than they are now, partly as a result of that. This
year, ice conditions in that area, the Barents and Kara Seas, at the end of
November were closer to that normally experienced at the end of October.


A less scientific view
Alan

--
Graham Davis
Bracknell

"Norman Lynagh" wrote in
message ...
In message , Alan
Whitewick writes
Just a moment, if this is all because of Global warming, are we not
forgetting a few present facts, for example it is said the the Arctic is
already 5C warmer and from a non scientific view point, if the ice is
melting so quickly why should it suddenly turn up somewhere else. What
about all those other influences of Global warming, such as the more
frequent heat waves such as in France recently. Surely all this extra heat
must be thrown in the melting pot and not give such a cooling effect that
every one seems to believe.
Recently we had a low originating from Spitzbergen, which brought cold air
and some snow in the west, but it (in my opinion) was not anything like as
cold as we would have had maybe 40 years ago, and soon replaced by the
usual mild wet downpours (60mm) here in Somerset in December.

A less scientific view
Alan

I think you would find that snow on the ground at Penzance in November was
a pretty rare event even 40 years ago.


True, but we still haven't had an air frost, November temperatures were spot
on the 1971-2000 norm (above the 1931-1960 norm) and Autumn was the 3rd
warmest in the last 15 years. Also the snow in Penzance was in effect 1-2cm
of slush, due to the intensity of the fall.

Graham

Penzance Weather www.easterling.freeserve.co.uk/weather.html
Holiday Cottage www.easterling.freeserve.co.uk