================================================== ==============================
===

This forecast represents the *PERSONAL OPINION* of the Chief forecaster at the
privately run Haytor meteorological office in Devon on how the weather may
unfold next week. The Chief forecaster will take no responsibility whatsoever
for any actions arising from its use. It is provided freely in the spirit of
freedom and the great love for meteorology that we personally enjoy and wish to
share freely with others.

================================================== ==============================
===


Summary valid for Sunday 04/12/05 to Saturday 10/12/05
TOI (time of issue) Thursday 01/12/05 2130 UK local time

This summary is based on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, FAX,
and ENS (NCEP ensemble) labelled charts available from the superb
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten

First of all an apology for a bad forecast last week. Probably the worst for
quite some time. The weather has turned unsettled now with a deep low and strong
winds near the UK, contrary to what was expected here last week. It was a
judgement error, choosing to go along with older model runs, albeit at low
confidence, despite contradictions from later data.

Confidence is high this week, however, for a return to mainly dry weather from
the north during the week, but turning colder with an easterly setting in in the
south.

On Sunday a complex area of low pressure will be centred over the British Isles
bringing light to moderate variable winds and showers. Temperatures close to
normal. Patchy fog overnight Sunday/Monday where winds fall light and skies
clear.

On Monday and Tuesday this area of low pressure will slowly fill and move away
southeast into the continent as pressure builds from the northwest. Scotland and
Northern Ireland will turn dry and cold with frost at night. England will be
cloudy in the east with showers, possibly turning wintry later on hills.
Scattered showers, wintry on hills in southern Britain but other areas mainly
dry. Winds turning light but staying moderate east to northeast in the south.

The rest of the week looks like being mainly dry and rather cold with patchy fog
and frost at night. Risk of wintry showers in eastern England and perhaps in
southern areas at times.

Outlook for the following week with moderate confidence is for an easterly to
become established with mainly dry and cold weather in the north but risk of
rain, sleet and hill snow with strong winds spreading north into southern areas.

Finally here is the sledging and winter walking forecast for Dartmoor for
weekend 3/4th Dec:

No snow is expected to lie or fall on Dartmoor during the weekend. Freezing
levels will be well above the summits.

Will.

Chief forecaster HMO/USW



" Ah yet another day to enjoy "
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

Confidence is high this week, however, for a return to mainly dry weather
from
the north during the week, but turning colder with an easterly setting in
in the
south.
.....
.....
Outlook for the following week with moderate confidence is for an easterly
to
become established with mainly dry and cold weather in the north but risk
of
rain, sleet and hill snow with strong winds spreading north into southern
areas.

Well, Will, that's made a pleasant and surprising read. I didn't expect to
see the high confidence of an Easterly, albeit in the South, for week 1,
never mind the moderate confidence of an easterly in week 2.

I have to admit I am/was leaning toward the scenario where the Low off
Newfoundland comes through eventually and pushes the Western High to the S
of Ireland, giving us a spell of the ould sw-rlies! I realise some models
are all over the place - I'm probably influenced by the "wrong" ones...and
I'm a crap forecaster!

Thanks again for the update and fair dues to you for admitting to the less
than accurate forecast last week. You do rank as one of the more credible
forecasters and this goes to prove you are not infallible just like the rest
of us mere mortals!!

Joe.

Without wanting to sound sycophantic as sometimes can be the case (you know
"great forecast" "Good stuff" "Looks Brilliant" etc. before it has even
happened! No names , no pack drill;-) ) I've just re-read that forecast and
can't see too much wrong with it - not for here in S.Essex anyway. Probably
because it was not only specific but specific about the probabilities so my
expectations were accurate.
Are you prepared to reveal your methodology? Don't go and tell me you used
meteorological science. ;-)

Dave
"Will Hand" wrote in message
...


================================================== ==========================
====
===

This forecast represents the *PERSONAL OPINION* of the Chief forecaster at
the
privately run Haytor meteorological office in Devon on how the weather may
unfold next week. The Chief forecaster will take no responsibility
whatsoever
for any actions arising from its use. It is provided freely in the spirit
of
freedom and the great love for meteorology that we personally enjoy and
wish to
share freely with others.


================================================== ==========================
====
===


Summary valid for Sunday 04/12/05 to Saturday 10/12/05
TOI (time of issue) Thursday 01/12/05 2130 UK local time

This summary is based on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO,
FAX,
and ENS (NCEP ensemble) labelled charts available from the superb
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten

First of all an apology for a bad forecast last week. Probably the worst
for
quite some time. The weather has turned unsettled now with a deep low and
strong
winds near the UK, contrary to what was expected here last week. It was a
judgement error, choosing to go along with older model runs, albeit at low
confidence, despite contradictions from later data.

Confidence is high this week, however, for a return to mainly dry weather
from
the north during the week, but turning colder with an easterly setting in
in the
south.

On Sunday a complex area of low pressure will be centred over the British
Isles
bringing light to moderate variable winds and showers. Temperatures close
to
normal. Patchy fog overnight Sunday/Monday where winds fall light and
skies
clear.

On Monday and Tuesday this area of low pressure will slowly fill and move
away
southeast into the continent as pressure builds from the northwest.
Scotland and
Northern Ireland will turn dry and cold with frost at night. England will
be
cloudy in the east with showers, possibly turning wintry later on hills.
Scattered showers, wintry on hills in southern Britain but other areas
mainly
dry. Winds turning light but staying moderate east to northeast in the
south.

The rest of the week looks like being mainly dry and rather cold with
patchy fog
and frost at night. Risk of wintry showers in eastern England and perhaps
in
southern areas at times.

Outlook for the following week with moderate confidence is for an easterly
to
become established with mainly dry and cold weather in the north but risk
of
rain, sleet and hill snow with strong winds spreading north into southern
areas.

Finally here is the sledging and winter walking forecast for Dartmoor for
weekend 3/4th Dec:

No snow is expected to lie or fall on Dartmoor during the weekend.
Freezing
levels will be well above the summits.

Will.

Chief forecaster HMO/USW



" Ah yet another day to enjoy "
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www:
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----