Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Saturday. Issued
0548, 13/12/05.

The models continue to show NW'lies for much of the UK for the latter half
of the weekend, with large differences between the runs regarding just how
cold it'll be. GFS shows a 2-day cold spell for much of England and Wales
whereas yesterday's ECM delayed the cold but kept it over the UK for longer.
The outcome will depend on how cyclogenesis near Iceland is handled and the
models differ regarding the track and intensity. As ever, more runs are
needed.

ECMWF: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Recm1201.gif
The UK lies under moderate NNW'lies, with some cold air (~512dam) moving
southwards over Scotland. The winds become NW'lies for many at T+144 as a
low sinks southwards to the west of the UK, followed by NNW'lies with a high
to the west at T+168.

MetO: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rukm1201.gif
Unavailable today.

GFS: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn1201.png
The GFS shows a ridge toppling over the UK as a low deepens to the west of
Iceland. NW'lies cover England and Wales with westerlies elsewhere. The low
moves SE'wards and deepens to the SW of Norway at T+144, leading to strong
to gale force westerlies. A ridge builds to the west at T+168 to bring
northerlies for all.

GEM: http://meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html
The Canadian run shows strong NW'lies for all due to a high to the SW and a
deep low over Scandinavia. The NW'lies persist at T+144.

GME/DWD:
http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...130000_120.gif
The Azores High is centred to the SW, leading to NW'lies for all. A low
deepens to the north at T+144 as the Azores High moves eastwards, resulting
in westerlies for all. By T+168 the winds become NW'lies due to a ridge to
the west.

JMA: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rjma1201.gif
Complex low pressure covers Scandinavia, leading to cold northerlies for
Scotland and milder NW'lies elsewhere. The winds ease slightly at T+144 with
sub -5C at 850hPa air covering the whole of the UK.

NOGAPS: http://217.160.75.104/pics/ngp10.prp.120.europeg.gif
A mixture of NNW'lies and NW'lies cover the UK, the former over Scotland.
The high to the SW declines slightly at T+144, allowing NW'lies to affect
the whole of the UK.

KMA: http://www.kma.go.kr/kma03/gif/g21nh_smsr_120.gif
A trough from complex low pressure over Scandinavia lies to the north of the
UK, resulting in NW'lies for all.