This November CET appears to have been around 1.3C below the 30 year rolling
average (7.1C)

There have been 10 other Novembers since 1929 that have had a deficit of
more than -1C between the actual CET recorded and the 30 year rolling
average:-

1942 -1.3
1952 -2.3
1962 -1.2
1965 -2.2
1966 -1.1
1967 -1.3
1969 -1.1
1985 -2.5
1988 -1.4
1993 -1.9

Of those years, the following have then had a December which has had a
deficit between the actual CET recorded and the 30 year rolling average

1952 -1.5
1962 -2.7
1967 -0.2
1969 -1.1

The total difference between the actual CET for the December, January and
February for these years and the 30 year rolling average was as follows

1952 -1.7
1962 -12.6
1967 -1.4
1969 -1.1

The remaining 6 years of the first list had a December CET difference of

1942 +2.1
1965 +0.3
1966 +1.1
1985 +1.8
1988 +2.3
1993 +0.6

These years had D,J and F CET total differences of

1942 +1.5
1965 +1.8
1966 +4
1985 -3.2
1988 +7.4
1993 +1.3

The only year which had a below 30 yr rolling average CET November, an above
30 yr rolling average CET December and a below 30 yr rolling average CET
winter was 1985/86
All other years which had a below ra CET November and an above ra CET
December had an above ra CET winter
All other years which had a below ra CET November and a below ra CET
December had a below ra CET winter.

The current 30 year rolling average for the period December to March is
4.4C.

If the December 2005 CET turns out to be less than the current 30 year
average (4.9C), I predict (guess!) that the overall CET for the period
December 2005 to February 2006 will be 3.5C or less. This would make it the
coldest winter since 1995/96 (3C)

Victor

I predict (guess!) that the overall CET for the period December 2005 to
February 2006 will be 3.5C or less. This would make it the coldest winter
since 1995/96 (3C)

Victor

Which, I guess Victor, is about what the UKMO winter forecast said.

Dave

"Victor West" wrote in message
...
This November CET appears to have been around 1.3C below the 30 year
rolling average (7.1C)


The November CET was only marginally below average.

Variations from the mean UK wide ranging from around -0.5 (Southern
England) to +0.6 (N Scotland)
In Penzance the mean was spot on the 1971-2000 norm, and +0.1 compared to
1961-90

Graham

In article ,
Graham Easterling writes:

"Victor West" wrote in message
...
This November CET appears to have been around 1.3C below the 30 year
rolling average (7.1C)


The November CET was only marginally below average.

Variations from the mean UK wide ranging from around -0.5 (Southern
England) to +0.6 (N Scotland)
In Penzance the mean was spot on the 1971-2000 norm, and +0.1 compared to
1961-90

But Victor said the "30 year rolling average", which I assume means
either 1975-2004 or 1976-2005, depending on whether he has included the
current year. That probably accounts for the difference from the
comparison with 1971-2000..
--
John Hall

"I am not young enough to know everything."
Oscar Wilde (1854-1900)

"Victor West" wrote in message
...
This November CET appears to have been around 1.3C below the 30 year
rolling average (7.1C)


The November CET was only marginally below average.

Variations from the mean UK wide ranging from around -0.5 (Southern
England) to +0.6 (N Scotland)
In Penzance the mean was spot on the 1971-2000 norm, and +0.1 compared to
1961-90

But Victor said the "30 year rolling average", which I assume means
either 1975-2004 or 1976-2005, depending on whether he has included the
current year. That probably accounts for the difference from the
comparison with 1971-2000..
--
It still wouldn't be -1.3, nearer -0.3
Wasn't 2000 colder?

Graham

"Graham Easterling" wrote in
message ...

"Victor West" wrote in message
...
This November CET appears to have been around 1.3C below the 30 year
rolling average (7.1C)


The November CET was only marginally below average.

Variations from the mean UK wide ranging from around -0.5 (Southern
England) to +0.6 (N Scotland)
In Penzance the mean was spot on the 1971-2000 norm, and +0.1 compared
to
1961-90

But Victor said the "30 year rolling average", which I assume means
either 1975-2004 or 1976-2005, depending on whether he has included the
current year. That probably accounts for the difference from the
comparison with 1971-2000..
--
It still wouldn't be -1.3, nearer -0.3
Wasn't 2000 colder?



Ok, I thought the CET was 5.8C. However, the official figure is 6.2C. That
is 0.9C below the rolling 30 year average of 7.1C.
However, this makes no change to any of my figures as there are no other
Novembers (apart from those already mentioned) with a CET more than 0.9C
below the rolling 30 year average for November.
November 2000 CET was 7C.

Victor

Well it appears the December CET was 4.7C, This means my winter 05/06 guess
is still on course to be fuly tested.
I predict that the average CET for January and February 2006 will be 2.9C.

Victor