I have been trying to make comparisons on my
recent data with longer term data from Met Office stations nearby but could
not afford the £1000ish charge which the Met Office were trying to get from
me for monthly temp, rainfall, and wind data from just one site over a 10
year period.

Alan

A couple of years back, whilst writing an environmental report I needed
detailed climate data for Kirkwall, Orkney. Instead contacting the Met
Office, I emailed Kirkwall Met Station directly and they sent me a whole
load of data, far more than I needed; it made very interesting reading and I
was very grateful to them, and they didn't charge me a penny.

Maybe by-passing the Met Office and directly contacting the person who takes
the readings might help?
________________
Nick G
Exe Valley, Devon
50 m amsl

"Alan" wrote in message
...
Most of it seems to have come up to Scotland. Over the last few years
there seems to have been substantial increases in rainfall totals
particularly in northern Scotland. Its my impression that there are an
increasing number of Highs over the southern UK leading to increasing
frontal activity over the peripheral areas to the north much of this
activity seems to be much slower moving leading to much higher daily
totals: eg over 46mm yesterday.
I would appreciate comments on this perception from more experienced and
informed experts in this group. I have been trying to make comparisons on
my recent data with longer term data from Met Office stations nearby but
could not afford the £1000ish charge which the Met Office were trying to
get from me for monthly temp, rainfall, and wind data from just one site
over a 10 year period. Certainly local perception is that there is a lot
more heavy prolonged rainfall as well an increasing frequency of severe
gales and storms than were common over the last 40 years.

Alan
www.carbostweather.co.uk

"Graham Easterling" wrote in
message ...
Graham

Going on my records since 1989, there seems to be relatively little
change in the annual rainfall totals, it just seems to be shifting in
when it actually falls throughout the year, i.e., drier spring &
summers; wetter autumn and winters.

Yes, slightly drier spring & summer here as well. The rainfall here has
always been very seasonal, but is even more so now.

I believe this fits in with earlier models showing the effects of a
warming climate on the UK. If the climate continues to warm then this
shifting of rainfall pattern is predicted to get more extreme.

I agree. Also what I find interesting is the warming over the last couple
of decades here has been slightly greater in summer than winter. This
counters the argument that warmer winters are just down to the lack of
blocking conditions. Apparently CO2 emisions are apparently increasing at
a record 3.5% per annum. Partly because the politicians in the developed
countries are attempting to meet emission targets by exporting energy
hungry industries to the 3rd world. Looks like bye bye polar bears.

Graham
________________
Nick G
Exe Valley, Devon
50 m amsl

"Graham Easterling" wrote in
message ...

"Nick G" wrote in message
...
I'm not a meteorologist either but this winter dry spell is probably
down to natural variability and next year we could be inundated with
rainfall, overall though there is a pattern of ever increasingly drier
summers, and this applies to much of England but is more enhanced in
the south-east.
________________
Nick G
Exe Valley, Devon
50 m amsl

It certainly seems to be down to natural variability here in Penzance,
although admittedly I'm not in the SE.
Winter rainfall totals as a % of the 1971-2000 norm being:-

Winter % of Norm
92/93 76
93/94 152
94/95 112
95/96 107
96/97 66
97/98 84
98/99 108
99/00 128
00/01 133
01/02 97
02/03 110
03/04 99
04/05 57
Av of the 13 years 102%
7 Winters wetter than average, 6 drier.

Overall it's beem getting slightly wetter in recent decades
1971-1980 Average - 1140.9mm
1981-1990 Average - 1165.9mm
1991-2000 Average - 1261.2mm
& warmer
1961-1990 Mean Temp - 11.1
1971-2000 Mean Temp - 11.3
1991-2000 Mean Temp - 11.6

Graham

"Alan" wrote in message
...
Most of it seems to have come up to Scotland. Over the last few years
there seems to have been substantial increases in rainfall totals
particularly in northern Scotland. Its my impression that there are an
increasing number of Highs over the southern UK leading to increasing
frontal activity over the peripheral areas to the north much of this
activity seems to be much slower moving leading to much higher daily
totals: eg over 46mm yesterday.
I would appreciate comments on this perception from more experienced and
informed experts in this group. I have been trying to make comparisons on
my recent data with longer term data from Met Office stations nearby but
could not afford the £1000ish charge which the Met Office were trying to
get from me for monthly temp, rainfall, and wind data from just one site
over a 10 year period. Certainly local perception is that there is a lot
more heavy prolonged rainfall as well an increasing frequency of severe
gales and storms than were common over the last 40 years.

Alan
www.carbostweather.co.uk

Your perception is correct.

Taking summer rainfall for the period 1981-1990 & expressing it as a % of
1951-1980 figures, values range from 110% in NW Scotland to just 70% along
the south coast from the Isle of Wight eastwards.

Taking average annual rainfall 1961-90, expressed as a % of the 1941-70
figures, values range from 105% in NW Scotland to 95% in Essex.

Most models of climatic change forecast a continuation of this trend. E.g
according to a recent Hadley Centre model, 2050 annual rainfall totals,
expressed as a % of the 1961-1990 norm will range from 109% in northern
Scotland to 90% along the south coast.

Holiday in Cornwall - You know it makes sense.

Graham

How there can such large variability in rainfail between areas in such
a
small island such as ours? Does a hundred miles or so of land really
effect
weather fronts that much after they've crossed 3000 miles of water?
Why is the south east so dry compared to areas only a few hours
drive away?

B2003

Does a hundred miles or so of land really
effect
weather fronts that much after they've crossed 3000 miles of water?

Yes. Westerlies, particularly those that lack punch (think high pressure)
give very little rain.

Why is the south east so dry compared to areas only a few hours
drive away?

It is generally low in altitude....It's well sheltered by the land from
Westerlies. SW\ S are rare to the reasons I mentioned. We had a short spell
of SW this Autumn\Winter and had lots of rain.

Yeah typically the air rises over the Cotswolds or Pennines. When that
happens it cools, condenses and dumps its moisture as rain. Then when it
comes down the other side down hill to the Southeast, it warms up and there
is less moisture available for rain.

A similar effect called the Fohn effect occurs in Scotland. The air rises
over the Cairngorms and dumps its moisture. Then it descends and warms. The
stronger the wind the more pronounced the effect is. As a result the
Aberdeen area can be surprisingly warm and sunny when it is grey cold and
damp to the west.

-Mike

"danny (west kent)" wrote in message
news
Does a hundred miles or so of land really
effect
weather fronts that much after they've crossed 3000 miles of water?

Yes. Westerlies, particularly those that lack punch (think high pressure)
give very little rain.

Why is the south east so dry compared to areas only a few hours
drive away?

It is generally low in altitude....It's well sheltered by the land from
Westerlies. SW\ S are rare to the reasons I mentioned. We had a short
spell
of SW this Autumn\Winter and had lots of rain.

Alan wrote:
Most of it seems to have come up to Scotland. Over the last few years there
seems to have been substantial increases in rainfall totals particularly in
northern Scotland. Its my impression that there are an increasing number of
Highs over the southern UK leading to increasing frontal activity over the
peripheral areas to the north much of this activity seems to be much slower
moving leading to much higher daily totals: eg over 46mm yesterday.
I would appreciate comments on this perception from more experienced and
informed experts in this group. I have been trying to make comparisons on my
recent data with longer term data from Met Office stations nearby but could
not afford the £1000ish charge which the Met Office were trying to get from
me for monthly temp, rainfall, and wind data from just one site over a 10
year period. Certainly local perception is that there is a lot more heavy
prolonged rainfall as well an increasing frequency of severe gales and
storms than were common over the last 40 years.

Alan
www.carbostweather.co.uk

The rain has not made it's way to this part of Scotland (Aberdeen),
where it has been dry more often than not in recent years. Storms and
gales have also been remarkably few in number (probably related to a
decrease in easterly winds).

Annual rainfall since 1989 at Dyce compared to the 1971-2000 and
1931-60 averages are as follows:

% of 71-00 avg % of 31-60 avg.

1989 62 58
1990 88 82
1991 91 84
1992 102 95
1993 118 109
1994 97 89
1995 109 101
1996 105 97
1997 118 109
1998 109 100
1999 86 80
2000 114 105
2001 102 94
2002 136 126
2003 69 64
2004 97 90

SO while there have been roughly the same number of years drier and
wetter than the 1971-2000 average only 5 of the last 16 years has been
wetter than the 1931-60 average and 2005 will be drier than both
averages. 2002 however was the wettest year since 1923 with an annual
total of 1090mm.

The figures for winter are all the more remarkable with just three,
since 88/89, being wetter than the 1931-60 average and all were colder
than average. I guess the increased frequency of S.W. winds is causing
an enhanced rain shadow effect.

Here are the winter percentages:

% of 71-00 avg % of 31-60 avg.

88/89 36 34
89/90 75 69
90/91 89 82
91/92 47 43
92/93 88 81
93/94 186 173
94/95 103 95
95/96 141 131
96/97 70 65
97/98 93 86
98/99 82 76
99/00 69 64
00/01 130 121
01/02 94 87
02/03 105 98
03/04 101 94
04/05 64 60

Note however the very large percentage for winter 93/94. The actual
total was 380mm making it the wettest winter in Aberdeen since that of
1882/83.

Richard Slessor,
Aberdeen.

On 23 Dec 2005 12:58:57 -0800, "Boltar"
wrote:

How there can such large variability in rainfail between areas in such a
small island such as ours? Does a hundred miles or so of land really
effect weather fronts that much after they've crossed 3000 miles of water?

Orographic effects.

The rainfall in Helensburgh, 12km to our south-east, (c.1400mm/yr) is
markedly different to that here (c.2000 mm/yr).

--
Alan White
Twenty-eight miles NW of Glasgow, overlooking Loch Goil and Loch Long in Argyll, Scotland.
Web cam and weather:- http://www.windycroft.gt-britain.co....her/kabcam.htm
Some walks and treks:- http://www.windycroft.gt-britain.co.uk/walks/

Alan wrote:
Most of it seems to have come up to Scotland. Over the last few years there
seems to have been substantial increases in rainfall totals particularly in
northern Scotland. Its my impression that there are an increasing number of
Highs over the southern UK leading to increasing frontal activity over the
peripheral areas to the north much of this activity seems to be much slower
moving leading to much higher daily totals: eg over 46mm yesterday.
I would appreciate comments on this perception from more experienced and
informed experts in this group. I have been trying to make comparisons on my
recent data with longer term data from Met Office stations nearby but could
not afford the £1000ish charge which the Met Office were trying to get from
me for monthly temp, rainfall, and wind data from just one site over a 10
year period. Certainly local perception is that there is a lot more heavy
prolonged rainfall as well an increasing frequency of severe gales and
storms than were common over the last 40 years.

Alan
www.carbostweather.co.uk

Is it really true that the Met Office wanted a thousand quid
for *one* station's data over 10 years? I would imagine in other
countries, particularly the USA, such data would be virtually free,
though I'm open to correction on this.
As far as rainfall goes, here in the SE it is definitely wetter
in the autumn and winter but drier in the summer, especially July,
which is my driest month over a 22-year record. This would have been
unimaginable in the 50's, say. The annual total, however, is slightly
higher than 50 years ago. An estimate for this location woulde be
790±10 mm around 1950, whereas my current average is 821 mm. It also
seems that the more "interesting" thunderstorm activity in summer has
moved to the north in recent years.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey, 556 ft.

"Graham Easterling" wrote in
message ...
Graham

Going on my records since 1989, there seems to be relatively little
change in the annual rainfall totals, it just seems to be shifting in
when it actually falls throughout the year, i.e., drier spring & summers;
wetter autumn and winters.

Yes, slightly drier spring & summer here as well. The rainfall here has
always been very seasonal, but is even more so now.

I believe this fits in with earlier models showing the effects of a
warming climate on the UK. If the climate continues to warm then this
shifting of rainfall pattern is predicted to get more extreme.

I agree. Also what I find interesting is the warming over the last couple
of decades here has been slightly greater in summer than winter. This
counters the argument that warmer winters are just down to the lack of
blocking conditions. Apparently CO2 emisions are apparently increasing at
a record 3.5% per annum. Partly because the politicians in the developed
countries are attempting to meet emission targets by exporting energy
hungry industries to the 3rd world. Looks like bye bye polar bears.

Graham
________________
Nick G
Exe Valley, Devon
50 m amsl

"Graham Easterling" wrote in
message ...

"Nick G" wrote in message
...
I'm not a meteorologist either but this winter dry spell is probably
down to natural variability and next year we could be inundated with
rainfall, overall though there is a pattern of ever increasingly drier
summers, and this applies to much of England but is more enhanced in
the south-east.
________________
Nick G
Exe Valley, Devon
50 m amsl

It certainly seems to be down to natural variability here in Penzance,
although admittedly I'm not in the SE.
Winter rainfall totals as a % of the 1971-2000 norm being:-

Winter % of Norm
92/93 76
93/94 152
94/95 112
95/96 107
96/97 66
97/98 84
98/99 108
99/00 128
00/01 133
01/02 97
02/03 110
03/04 99
04/05 57
Av of the 13 years 102%
7 Winters wetter than average, 6 drier.

Overall it's beem getting slightly wetter in recent decades
1971-1980 Average - 1140.9mm
1981-1990 Average - 1165.9mm
1991-2000 Average - 1261.2mm
& warmer
1961-1990 Mean Temp - 11.1
1971-2000 Mean Temp - 11.3
1991-2000 Mean Temp - 11.6

Graham