Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Thursday. Issued
0611z, 2/01/05.

The outlook remains zonal, still with the potential for colder spells across
northern Britain.

ECMWF: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Recm1201.gif
Strong westerlies cover the UK, with a deep low to the NNE and a large high
centred over Spain. A secondary low forms to the north of Scotland at T+144,
bringing westerlies and WSW'lies, followed by WNW'lies as a trough moves
swiftly eastwards over the UK at T+168.

MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html
The Met Office run shows lows to the NW and NE, with SW'lies across the UK.
The winds become WSW'lies at T+144 as the former low fills and moves
eastwards to lie between Scotland and Iceland.

GFS: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Rtavn1201.gif
A deep low lies between Iceland and Scotland, leading to strong to gale
force SW'lies for the UK. 850hPa temperatures vary from -1C over Scotland to
+4C over SW England. A secondary low forms to the south of Ireland at T+144,
with southerlies across England and Wales and colder westerlies elsewhere.
By T+168 the UK lies under NW'lies with a weak ridge to the SW, followed by
southerlies and SW'lies from another secondary low to the SW of Ireland on
day 8. That low moves ENE'wards on day 9, leaving the UK under westerlies
and NW'lies, followed by SW'lies on day 10 as pressure builds over France.

GEM: http://www.meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html
WSW'ly gales cover the UK as the result of a large high over Iberia and deep
lows to the north and NW of the UK. There's little change at T+144 as the
low to the NW moves slowly eastwards.

GME/DWD:
http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...010000_120.gif
The UK lies under strong WSW'lies and westerlies as the result of a deep low
to the SW of Iceland and high pressure to the south.

JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html
SW'lies affect the UK from T+120 to T168 as a sucession of lows move
NE'wards to the west and north of the UK.

NOGAPS: http://129.13.102.67/wz/pics/ngp10.prp.120.europeg.gif
NOGAPS shows a weak ridge to the west and westerlies for the UK.

GM CPTEC: http://www.cptec.inpe.br/prevnum/Global126_sx6_Gl.shtml
As with NOGAPS, a weak ridge lies to the west of the UK, resulting in strong
westerlies across the UK.

KMA: http://www.kma.go.kr/kma03/gif/g21nh_smsr_120.gif
A deep low lies to the north of the UK, bringing strong to gale force
westerlies for all.

With each days models staying with same theme, I'm beginning to loose
interest like I did in December. I don't see it happening again this
year. Scandinavia is now relatively mild, so even a NE blast would
bring no 'real' cold weather.

I've felt s&^t the last week, so roll on summer, I need those rays
desperately.


Keith (Southend)

***********************
Weather Home & Abroad
http://www.southendweather.net

On Sun, 2 Jan 2005 06:13:33 -0000, "Darren Prescott"
wrote:

Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Thursday. Issued
0611z, 2/01/05.

The outlook remains zonal, still with the potential for colder spells across
northern Britain.

ECMWF: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Recm1201.gif
Strong westerlies cover the UK, with a deep low to the NNE and a large high
centred over Spain. A secondary low forms to the north of Scotland at T+144,
bringing westerlies and WSW'lies, followed by WNW'lies as a trough moves
swiftly eastwards over the UK at T+168.

MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html
The Met Office run shows lows to the NW and NE, with SW'lies across the UK.
The winds become WSW'lies at T+144 as the former low fills and moves
eastwards to lie between Scotland and Iceland.

GFS: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Rtavn1201.gif
A deep low lies between Iceland and Scotland, leading to strong to gale
force SW'lies for the UK. 850hPa temperatures vary from -1C over Scotland to
+4C over SW England. A secondary low forms to the south of Ireland at T+144,
with southerlies across England and Wales and colder westerlies elsewhere.
By T+168 the UK lies under NW'lies with a weak ridge to the SW, followed by
southerlies and SW'lies from another secondary low to the SW of Ireland on
day 8. That low moves ENE'wards on day 9, leaving the UK under westerlies
and NW'lies, followed by SW'lies on day 10 as pressure builds over France.

GEM: http://www.meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html
WSW'ly gales cover the UK as the result of a large high over Iberia and deep
lows to the north and NW of the UK. There's little change at T+144 as the
low to the NW moves slowly eastwards.

GME/DWD:
http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...010000_120.gif
The UK lies under strong WSW'lies and westerlies as the result of a deep low
to the SW of Iceland and high pressure to the south.

JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html
SW'lies affect the UK from T+120 to T168 as a sucession of lows move
NE'wards to the west and north of the UK.

NOGAPS: http://129.13.102.67/wz/pics/ngp10.prp.120.europeg.gif
NOGAPS shows a weak ridge to the west and westerlies for the UK.

GM CPTEC: http://www.cptec.inpe.br/prevnum/Global126_sx6_Gl.shtml
As with NOGAPS, a weak ridge lies to the west of the UK, resulting in strong
westerlies across the UK.

KMA: http://www.kma.go.kr/kma03/gif/g21nh_smsr_120.gif
A deep low lies to the north of the UK, bringing strong to gale force
westerlies for all.

I've felt s&^t the last week, so roll on summer, I need those rays
desperately.

Here, here roll on May!

Graham

"Graham" wrote in message
...

I've felt s&^t the last week, so roll on summer, I need those rays
desperately.

Here, here roll on May!

I'll vote for that!

Jim Webster

Jim Webster wrote:
"Graham" wrote in message
...

I've felt s&^t the last week, so roll on summer, I need those rays
desperately.


Here, here roll on May!


I'll vote for that!

Time to turn to the thread started by Brendan Murphy in "Long range
forecast". :-)

--
Howard Neil

On Sun, 02 Jan 2005 11:09:34 +0000, "Keith (Southend)"
wrote:

With each days models staying with same theme, I'm beginning to loose
interest like I did in December. I don't see it happening again this
year. Scandinavia is now relatively mild, so even a NE blast would
bring no 'real' cold weather.

I would certainly like to know the main ingredients to allow for the
establishment of what has been called (here,I think) a Scandinavian
High Pressure, resulting in a NE wind etc. I did ask a week ago on
another thread but sadly no-one picked it up.
I get the impression it is far too early to rule out a cold snap from
the 'east' given the albeit brief ones we have had in a few recent
years.Are we really likely to get nothing but SW,W or NW for the next
two months??
I would make the observation that when I was a lad in the late 50s and
60s winter always seemed to contain a proper cold spell: I am sure it
probably not the case!

In article ,
Robin Nicholson writes:
snip
I get the impression it is far too early to rule out a cold snap from
the 'east' given the albeit brief ones we have had in a few recent
years.Are we really likely to get nothing but SW,W or NW for the next
two months??

I'm sure that you're right about this. Continental Europe can cool down
pretty quickly once a blocking situation gets established. I don't think
that anyone can say with any certainty just yet whether February will be
mild or cold.
--
John Hall "Hard work often pays off after time, but laziness always
pays off now." Anon

I'm sure that you're right about this. Continental Europe can cool down
pretty quickly once a blocking situation gets established. I don't think
that anyone can say with any certainty just yet whether February will be
mild or cold.
If the last 8 February's are anything to go by I think we already know
the answer to that one!
--
Graham

Robin Nicholson wrote:

On Sun, 02 Jan 2005 11:09:34 +0000, "Keith (Southend)"
wrote:

With each days models staying with same theme, I'm beginning to loose
interest like I did in December. I don't see it happening again this
year. Scandinavia is now relatively mild, so even a NE blast would
bring no 'real' cold weather.

I would certainly like to know the main ingredients to allow for the
establishment of what has been called (here,I think) a Scandinavian
High Pressure, resulting in a NE wind etc. I did ask a week ago on
another thread but sadly no-one picked it up.

For the best chance of a decent Scandinavian High (not all of them give us
cold weather) a cold SST anomaly is needed in the Atlantic just to the
south of the Grand Banks.

I get the impression it is far too early to rule out a cold snap from
the 'east' given the albeit brief ones we have had in a few recent
years.Are we really likely to get nothing but SW,W or NW for the next
two months??

A couple of months or so back, I was hoping the cold water off Florida would
edge NE and give us some grounds for optimism but it's retreated over the
past few weeks. However, it's too early to give up hope.

I would make the observation that when I was a lad in the late 50s and
60s winter always seemed to contain a proper cold spell: I am sure it
probably not the case!

I remember there was one winter in the fifties where we missed out on a
proper snowfall but can't remember which. Cold spells were common. How
else, in the early fifties, would we have developed rules for use of the
playground slide - anyone with rubber soles or heels was barred for fear of
blunting the slide.


Graham

On Mon, 03 Jan 2005 17:57:45 +0000, Graham P Davis
wrote:


For the best chance of a decent Scandinavian High (not all of them give us
cold weather) a cold SST anomaly is needed in the Atlantic just to the
south of the Grand Banks.

Graham

Thanks for that! I am mildly surprised it is as simple as that! So the
next question is..what can cause the cold SST anomaly?
IIRC I have seen references to temperatures in the Atlantic being a
degree or so above 'average': where this is recorded, and/or rather
where, is another matter.
Given what I assume to be generally higher Atlantic SSTs in recent
years, this would seem to rule out completely a Scandi High developing
- unless there are factors to be considered east of the UK??
I wonder if measurements of SSTs existed,say, in the 50s and 60s when
I thought (incorrectly possibly) winters were expected to have a
significant cold snap and by that I mean not the temporary N blast of
two or three days that raises some members of the ng to frenzy!