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Old December 26th 05, 10:04 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default A few thoughts on the snow (26/12/05)


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Just had a quick scan through the charts and it's all looking very interesting
for eastern England, and high ground in the west.

Almost certainly now some lying snow in the next 3 days for Eastern England, SE
England, parts of central southern England and Dartmoor. Most snow in East
Anglia and the SE with 5-10 cms certainly possible, lighter falls elsewhere, a
few flurries on Dartmoor which if we get a trough may give 1 or 2 cms lying
snow. Confidence high.

Later on Thursday and on Friday Atlantic air pushes in from the west and this
will give a spell of heavy snow above 250m on high ground, possibly 10-15 cms in
places before it turns milder with rain spreading to all areas. Confidence
moderate.

Then it's back to normal weather with wind and rain at times and a bit of hill
snow in colder interludes. Confidence moderate.

Things that could still go "wrong":-

1. Only coastal areas of the east get any snow - (unlikely)
2. Warm air stalls and the east gets a substantial spell of snow before the rain
arrives (possible)
3. Warm air fails to push in and only reaches western fringes (unlikely)
4. Block is maintained and we persist with the easterly type (very unlikely)

Season's Greetings,

Will.
--

" Ah yet another day to enjoy "
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Old December 26th 05, 10:36 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default A few thoughts on the snow (26/12/05)

Thanks Will. I routinely read your posts (unlike some others) - always
informative.

At 142m asl on the "first high ground" downwind of the East Anglian
coast, (South Cambridgeshire) I have great confidence in your
prediction of snow. This is my 15th winter here and experience has
taught that when East Anglia gets snow in an E'ly or NE'ly, then we are
always included. Lower ground nearby, eg around Cambridge itself,
often gets rain only.

In East Anglia, NW'lies and N'lies are of course a different story and
then it tends to be mainly the coastal districts of North, Northeast
and East Norfolk (where I grew up) that get the substantial snow.

Jack

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Old December 26th 05, 12:01 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default A few thoughts on the snow (26/12/05)

Block to persist - unlikely? The 06Z GFS thinks otherwise. Early days
yet but in blocking situations like this models are notorious for
trying to push warm air through the UK much faster than happens in
reality



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