The indications for the next two weeks seems very depressing.... both
warmer and wetter than normal it seems, yet again (see 1988, 1990,
1993-95 inclusive, 1998, 1999, 2002, 2004). Often a change of weather
around new year seems to set the pattern for the rest of the winter. So
is it time to dismiss the Met Office forecast, forget about winter and
start looking forward to spring?

Nick

wrote in message
oups.com...
The indications for the next two weeks seems very depressing.... both
warmer and wetter than normal it seems, yet again (see 1988, 1990,
1993-95 inclusive, 1998, 1999, 2002, 2004). Often a change of weather
around new year seems to set the pattern for the rest of the winter. So
is it time to dismiss the Met Office forecast, forget about winter and
start looking forward to spring?

Nick

On only 4 occasions since WW2, including this year, do I remember an
easterly spell started during the week between Christmas and New Year's Day.
The other years were 1954, 1978 and 1996. Each of these was followed by a
cold January, although , in 1997, there wasn't much cold weather after the
10th. The difference between these years and 2005 is that the easterly this
time was shortlived and all over by the turn of the year.

This year has followed the pattern of several others since about 1990: - a
longish spell of quiet anticyclonic weather before Christmas culminating in
a brief cold spell before the the westerlies come surging back around New
Years Day setting the scene for a mild January. It is tempting to suggest
that the pattern is going to be repeated this time, but the Russian High
looks as though it is going to persist so perhaps we should reserve
judgement for another week or so.

Peter Clarke
Ewell
Epsom

wrote:
The indications for the next two weeks seems very depressing.... both
warmer and wetter than normal it seems, yet again (see 1988, 1990,
1993-95 inclusive, 1998, 1999, 2002, 2004). Often a change of weather
around new year seems to set the pattern for the rest of the winter. So
is it time to dismiss the Met Office forecast, forget about winter and
start looking forward to spring?

Nick

You may have heard of a month called February, which has given
tremendous cold spells in the past with no prior indication, eg 1947,
1956, 1986 and 1991. What's so wonderful about cold weather, anyway?
Are you going to dismiss everything else that happens in the next two
months merely because it isn't "cold"? There could be all kinds of
mayhem with floods, gales or even, dare I say it, a temperature of
16°C. That would be rather nice.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

a temperature of 16°C. That would be rather nice.

Not in a warm sector with drizzle and cloud down to 500ft... :-)

Nick

What's so wonderful about cold weather, anyway?
Are you going to dismiss everything else that happens in the next two
months merely because it isn't "cold"?

Because snow, frost, ice and blue skies are aesthetically pleasing, I
suppose, and in winter there is little else to make the countryside
attractive. Warm, wet weather is much less unwelcome in autumn when the
trees are the main aesthetic feature of the landscape, and in summer,
warm wet weather is often thundery and thus more exciting.

Maybe it's time to call the guy in the Hitch-Hikers' Guide
(Slartibartfast wasn't it?) and convince him to build an island west of
Ireland, about 50 miles wide and with a continuous chain of 5000ft
mountains, lying between 45N and 60N.... :-)

Nick

"Tudor Hughes" wrote in message
oups.com...

wrote:
The indications for the next two weeks seems very depressing.... both
warmer and wetter than normal it seems, yet again (see 1988, 1990,
1993-95 inclusive, 1998, 1999, 2002, 2004). Often a change of weather
around new year seems to set the pattern for the rest of the winter. So
is it time to dismiss the Met Office forecast, forget about winter and
start looking forward to spring?

Nick

You may have heard of a month called February, which has given
tremendous cold spells in the past with no prior indication, eg 1947,
1956, 1986 and 1991. What's so wonderful about cold weather, anyway?
Are you going to dismiss everything else that happens in the next two
months merely because it isn't "cold"? There could be all kinds of
mayhem with floods, gales or even, dare I say it, a temperature of
16°C. That would be rather nice.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

I almost achieved that on 9 Jan 1998 when I had a max of almost 15c with a
sunny, almost cloudless day. It was especially unique because my records
show that the days around the 9th/ 10th Jan have a relatively high
frequency of snow compared with other days in Jan.

Peter Clarke
ewell, Epsom

That's what everyone was saying two weeks ago. ;-)
|Dave
wrote in message
oups.com...
The indications for the next two weeks seems very depressing.... both
warmer and wetter than normal it seems, yet again (see 1988, 1990,
1993-95 inclusive, 1998, 1999, 2002, 2004). Often a change of weather
around new year seems to set the pattern for the rest of the winter. So
is it time to dismiss the Met Office forecast, forget about winter and
start looking forward to spring?

Nick

On 30 Dec 2005 05:35:08 -0800, wrote:

...forget about winter and start looking forward to spring?

As we're only nine days into winter, what's your point?

--
Alan White
Twenty-eight miles NW of Glasgow, overlooking Loch Goil and Loch Long in Argyll, Scotland.
Web cam and weather:- http://www.windycroft.gt-britain.co....her/kabcam.htm
Some walks and treks:- http://www.windycroft.gt-britain.co.uk/walks/

"Alan White" wrote in message
...
On 30 Dec 2005 05:35:08 -0800, wrote:

...forget about winter and start looking forward to spring?

As we're only nine days into winter, what's your point?

30 days actually.

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.

"Peter Clarke" wrote in message
...

wrote in message
oups.com...
The indications for the next two weeks seems very depressing.... both
warmer and wetter than normal it seems, yet again (see 1988, 1990,
1993-95 inclusive, 1998, 1999, 2002, 2004). Often a change of weather
around new year seems to set the pattern for the rest of the winter. So
is it time to dismiss the Met Office forecast, forget about winter and
start looking forward to spring?

Nick

On only 4 occasions since WW2, including this year, do I remember an
easterly spell started during the week between Christmas and New Year's
Day. The other years were 1954, 1978 and 1996. Each of these was followed
by a cold January, although , in 1997, there wasn't much cold weather
after the 10th. The difference between these years and 2005 is that the
easterly this time was shortlived and all over by the turn of the year.

This year has followed the pattern of several others since about 1990: - a
longish spell of quiet anticyclonic weather before Christmas culminating
in a brief cold spell before the the westerlies come surging back around
New Years Day setting the scene for a mild January. It is tempting to
suggest that the pattern is going to be repeated this time, but the
Russian High looks as though it is going to persist so perhaps we should
reserve judgement for another week or so.

Peter Clarke
Ewell
Epsom

I know a few disagree with this, but I am afraid I agree. I noticed this a
few years ago. Often these days if we get a cold spell, this period between
Xmas and New Year is the coldest of the whole winter. We had this in 2000.
There are other examples of course.

Gavin.