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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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#1
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November, December were the first 2 consecutive months here with a negative
temperature anomaly 0.5C since December 1996/ January 1997. Peter Clarke Ewell Epsom 55m |
#2
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![]() "Peter Clarke" wrote in message ... November, December were the first 2 consecutive months here with a negative temperature anomaly 0.5C since December 1996/ January 1997. Peter Clarke Ewell Epsom 55m Good point Peter. Evidence is showing that January will join it and possibly February as well. Questions. When did we last have 3 months in a row with below normal CETs.? When did we last have 4 months in a row with below normal CETs Gavin. |
#3
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![]() "Gavin Staples" wrote in message ... "Peter Clarke" wrote in message ... November, December were the first 2 consecutive months here with a negative temperature anomaly 0.5C since December 1996/ January 1997. Peter Clarke Ewell Epsom 55m Good point Peter. Evidence is showing that January will join it and possibly February as well. Questions. When did we last have 3 months in a row with below normal CETs.? When did we last have 4 months in a row with below normal CETs Gavin. I've looked back a bit further in my records, Gavin, and found that the last occasion here when there were 3 or 4 colder than average months in succession was: August , September, October and November 1993 and the preceding July nearly qualified also. Going back to earlier months, Jan, Feb, March in both 1986 and 1987 were all colder than average. Peter Clarke Ewell Epsom |
#4
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Perhaps we are now starting to see the beginnings of a cooling trend!
Regards. Len. "Peter Clarke" wrote in message ... November, December were the first 2 consecutive months here with a negative temperature anomaly 0.5C since December 1996/ January 1997. Peter Clarke Ewell Epsom 55m |
#5
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![]() "Peter Clarke" wrote in message ... "Gavin Staples" wrote in message ... "Peter Clarke" wrote in message ... November, December were the first 2 consecutive months here with a negative temperature anomaly 0.5C since December 1996/ January 1997. Peter Clarke Ewell Epsom 55m Good point Peter. Evidence is showing that January will join it and possibly February as well. Questions. When did we last have 3 months in a row with below normal CETs.? When did we last have 4 months in a row with below normal CETs Gavin. I've looked back a bit further in my records, Gavin, and found that the last occasion here when there were 3 or 4 colder than average months in succession was: August , September, October and November 1993 and the preceding July nearly qualified also. Going back to earlier months, Jan, Feb, March in both 1986 and 1987 were all colder than average. Peter Clarke Ewell Epsom So if that happens this time. i.e. January and then February, we are talking about a significant event.:-) We'll all keep tabs on this- on here and also on the TWO forum. Without sounding pedantic, if this January, February March and April even, were colder than average, then we would be looking at 6 consecutive months with below average CETs. I bet that hasn't happened for ages. Gavin. |
#6
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In article ,
Gavin Staples writes: We'll all keep tabs on this- on here and also on the TWO forum. Without sounding pedantic, if this January, February March and April even, were colder than average, then we would be looking at 6 consecutive months with below average CETs. I bet that hasn't happened for ages. I think that you are rather running away with yourself here. There's many a slip betwixt cup and lip. We have no real idea as yet whether January will turn out colder or milder than average, never mind February, March and April! The current synoptic situation and the UKMO's LRF perhaps between them suggest that a colder than average January is better than an evens chance, but not by much. After all, it's only the 1st today. The time to get excited about the prospect of six successive months being cooler than average will be at the earliest when we've got five cooler than average months already safely in the bag. The odds against it happening must still be considerable. Before I would consider betting on it, I would want odds of at least 25-1. -- John Hall "I am not young enough to know everything." Oscar Wilde (1854-1900) |
#7
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John Hall wrote:
In article , Gavin Staples writes: We'll all keep tabs on this- on here and also on the TWO forum. Without sounding pedantic, if this January, February March and April even, were colder than average, then we would be looking at 6 consecutive months with below average CETs. I bet that hasn't happened for ages. I think that you are rather running away with yourself here. There's many a slip betwixt cup and lip. We have no real idea as yet whether January will turn out colder or milder than average, never mind February, March and April! The current synoptic situation and the UKMO's LRF perhaps between them suggest that a colder than average January is better than an evens chance, but not by much. After all, it's only the 1st today. The time to get excited about the prospect of six successive months being cooler than average will be at the earliest when we've got five cooler than average months already safely in the bag. The odds against it happening must still be considerable. Before I would consider betting on it, I would want odds of at least 25-1. I wouldn't go overboard with this -ve CET value. For me both Dec and Nov were only very slightly below the average, Oct and Sept well above , August befow, July slightly below, January, March, April and May above, and February slightly below. I suppose though we do seem to be coming back closer to the norm now. I was going to publisise a couple of 'charts' off excel. but they don't seem to display when in htm ;-( -- Keith (Southend) http://www.southendweather.net |
#8
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August befow, July slightly below, January, March, April and May above,
and February slightly below. I suppose though we do seem to be coming back closer to the norm now. It's surprising how warm the west has been compared to the east this year. Even so I'm surprised by your July figure. It had me digging out my COL bulletins, which show your area around +0.5 for July. In Penzance it was in the best Summer of the Century. 2003, which was good in the east was extremely mixed here. July was extremely wet. Then 2004 saw 149% of normal rainfall. 2005 was a cracker. June + 1.7 July + 1.4 August + 0.8 The only months below the norm in 2005 were February (-0.2), November (-0.1) December (-0.8). Graham |
#9
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Penzance 2005 Temperature anomalies.
June + 1.7 July + 1.4 August + 0.8 I've just checked and both June & July 2005 were my warmest on record. (Records start 1991) |
#10
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Graham Easterling wrote:
August befow, July slightly below, January, March, April and May above, and February slightly below. I suppose though we do seem to be coming back closer to the norm now. It's surprising how warm the west has been compared to the east this year. Even so I'm surprised by your July figure. It had me digging out my COL bulletins, which show your area around +0.5 for July. In Penzance it was in the best Summer of the Century. 2003, which was good in the east was extremely mixed here. July was extremely wet. Then 2004 saw 149% of normal rainfall. 2005 was a cracker. June + 1.7 July + 1.4 August + 0.8 The only months below the norm in 2005 were February (-0.2), November (-0.1) December (-0.8). Graham Just checked again, my mean July figure was +0.1°c min +0.5°c max -0.4°c You should find me in those COL bulletins under ESSEX, Southend-on-Sea. -- Keith (Southend) http://www.southendweather.net |
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