November, December were the first 2 consecutive months here with a negative
temperature anomaly 0.5C since December 1996/ January 1997.

Peter Clarke
Ewell
Epsom 55m

"Peter Clarke" wrote in message
...
November, December were the first 2 consecutive months here with a
negative temperature anomaly 0.5C since December 1996/ January 1997.

Peter Clarke
Ewell
Epsom 55m




Good point Peter. Evidence is showing that January will join it and
possibly February as well.

Questions.

When did we last have 3 months in a row with below normal CETs.?


When did we last have 4 months in a row with below normal CETs


Gavin.

"Gavin Staples" wrote in message
...

"Peter Clarke" wrote in message
...
November, December were the first 2 consecutive months here with a
negative temperature anomaly 0.5C since December 1996/ January 1997.

Peter Clarke
Ewell
Epsom 55m




Good point Peter. Evidence is showing that January will join it and
possibly February as well.

Questions.

When did we last have 3 months in a row with below normal CETs.?


When did we last have 4 months in a row with below normal CETs


Gavin.

I've looked back a bit further in my records, Gavin, and found that the last
occasion here when there were 3 or 4 colder than average months in
succession was: August , September, October and November 1993 and the
preceding July nearly qualified also.

Going back to earlier months, Jan, Feb, March in both 1986 and 1987 were all
colder than average.

Peter Clarke
Ewell
Epsom

Perhaps we are now starting to see the beginnings of a cooling trend!
Regards. Len.
"Peter Clarke" wrote in message
...
November, December were the first 2 consecutive months here with a
negative temperature anomaly 0.5C since December 1996/ January 1997.

Peter Clarke
Ewell
Epsom 55m

"Peter Clarke" wrote in message
...

"Gavin Staples" wrote in message
...

"Peter Clarke" wrote in message
...
November, December were the first 2 consecutive months here with a
negative temperature anomaly 0.5C since December 1996/ January 1997.

Peter Clarke
Ewell
Epsom 55m




Good point Peter. Evidence is showing that January will join it and
possibly February as well.

Questions.

When did we last have 3 months in a row with below normal CETs.?


When did we last have 4 months in a row with below normal CETs


Gavin.

I've looked back a bit further in my records, Gavin, and found that the
last occasion here when there were 3 or 4 colder than average months in
succession was: August , September, October and November 1993 and the
preceding July nearly qualified also.

Going back to earlier months, Jan, Feb, March in both 1986 and 1987 were
all colder than average.

Peter Clarke
Ewell
Epsom


So if that happens this time. i.e. January and then February, we are talking
about a significant event.:-)

We'll all keep tabs on this- on here and also on the TWO forum. Without
sounding pedantic, if this January, February March and April even, were
colder than average, then we would be looking at 6 consecutive months with
below average CETs. I bet that hasn't happened for ages.



Gavin.

In article ,
Gavin Staples writes:
We'll all keep tabs on this- on here and also on the TWO forum. Without
sounding pedantic, if this January, February March and April even, were
colder than average, then we would be looking at 6 consecutive months with
below average CETs. I bet that hasn't happened for ages.

I think that you are rather running away with yourself here. There's
many a slip betwixt cup and lip. We have no real idea as yet whether
January will turn out colder or milder than average, never mind
February, March and April! The current synoptic situation and the UKMO's
LRF perhaps between them suggest that a colder than average January is
better than an evens chance, but not by much. After all, it's only the
1st today. The time to get excited about the prospect of six successive
months being cooler than average will be at the earliest when we've got
five cooler than average months already safely in the bag. The odds
against it happening must still be considerable. Before I would consider
betting on it, I would want odds of at least 25-1.
--
John Hall

"I am not young enough to know everything."
Oscar Wilde (1854-1900)

John Hall wrote:
In article ,
Gavin Staples writes:

We'll all keep tabs on this- on here and also on the TWO forum. Without
sounding pedantic, if this January, February March and April even, were
colder than average, then we would be looking at 6 consecutive months with
below average CETs. I bet that hasn't happened for ages.


I think that you are rather running away with yourself here. There's
many a slip betwixt cup and lip. We have no real idea as yet whether
January will turn out colder or milder than average, never mind
February, March and April! The current synoptic situation and the UKMO's
LRF perhaps between them suggest that a colder than average January is
better than an evens chance, but not by much. After all, it's only the
1st today. The time to get excited about the prospect of six successive
months being cooler than average will be at the earliest when we've got
five cooler than average months already safely in the bag. The odds
against it happening must still be considerable. Before I would consider
betting on it, I would want odds of at least 25-1.

I wouldn't go overboard with this -ve CET value. For me both Dec and Nov
were only very slightly below the average, Oct and Sept well above ,
August befow, July slightly below, January, March, April and May above,
and February slightly below.

I suppose though we do seem to be coming back closer to the norm now.

I was going to publisise a couple of 'charts' off excel. but they don't
seem to display when in htm ;-(

--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net

August befow, July slightly below, January, March, April and May above,
and February slightly below.

I suppose though we do seem to be coming back closer to the norm now.

It's surprising how warm the west has been compared to the east this year.
Even so I'm surprised by your July figure. It had me digging out my COL
bulletins, which show your area around +0.5 for July.

In Penzance it was in the best Summer of the Century.
2003, which was good in the east was extremely mixed here. July was
extremely wet. Then 2004 saw 149% of normal rainfall.
2005 was a cracker.

June + 1.7
July + 1.4
August + 0.8

The only months below the norm in 2005 were February (-0.2), November (-0.1)
December (-0.8).

Graham

Penzance 2005 Temperature anomalies.

June + 1.7
July + 1.4
August + 0.8


I've just checked and both June & July 2005 were my warmest on record.
(Records start 1991)

Graham Easterling wrote:
August befow, July slightly below, January, March, April and May above,
and February slightly below.

I suppose though we do seem to be coming back closer to the norm now.


It's surprising how warm the west has been compared to the east this year.
Even so I'm surprised by your July figure. It had me digging out my COL
bulletins, which show your area around +0.5 for July.

In Penzance it was in the best Summer of the Century.
2003, which was good in the east was extremely mixed here. July was
extremely wet. Then 2004 saw 149% of normal rainfall.
2005 was a cracker.

June + 1.7
July + 1.4
August + 0.8

The only months below the norm in 2005 were February (-0.2), November (-0.1)
December (-0.8).

Graham



Just checked again, my mean July figure was +0.1°c
min +0.5°c
max -0.4°c

You should find me in those COL bulletins under ESSEX, Southend-on-Sea.
--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net