================================================== ==============================
===

This forecast represents the *PERSONAL OPINION* of the Chief forecaster at the
privately run Haytor meteorological office in Devon on how the weather may
unfold next week. The Chief forecaster will take no responsibility whatsoever
for any actions arising from its use. It is provided freely in the spirit of
freedom and the great love for meteorology that we personally enjoy and wish to
share freely with others.

================================================== ==============================
===


Summary valid for Sunday 08/01/06 to Saturday 14/01/06/
TOI (time of issue) Thursday 05/01/06 1000 UK local time

This summary is based on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, FAX,
and ENS (NCEP ensemble) labelled charts available from the superb
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten

From now on the previous week's forecast will be left at the end of the present
forecast for comparison. (Sleet was seen on Dartmoor last weekend at 450m asl
and gales).

Confidence is moderate for a return to mild and changeable conditions next week
(60%), however, details and timings have low confidence as it is thought here at
Haytor that the models are being slightly too quick with the frontal incursions.

On Sunday most parts of the UK look like being cloudy and rather cold with
outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow. Snow mainly on high ground above 300m and in
the west of Engalnd and over Wales. Some heavy outbreaks are possible which will
fall as snow over high ground. Winds generally light from a south or
south-easterly direction.

During Monday a deepening low near Iceland will spread strong to gale force
south-west winds into Northern Ireland and Scotland during the afternoon
accompanied by heavy rain. Turning mild here. Other areas should be mainly dry
and cloudy after a frost in parts of the SE at first. Temperatures near normal
and winds light.

On Tuesday the rain and very strong winds will spread very slowly south-east.
Some of the rain is likely to be very heavy and accompanied by severe
southwesterly gales in the west and north particularly over high ground. Local
flooding is a possibility. The SE could stay dry till after dark. Later in the
day the rain should clear from Scotland and Northern Ireland and the winds turn
a lighter westerly. Generally mild or very mild.

The rain should clear the SE on Wednesday and then all areas will be brighter
and colder with sunny spells and showers. Most showers in western and northern
areas where they will turn wintry over hills. Temperatures returning to normal
values. Winds moderate to fresh west to northwest.

For the rest of the week confidence falls to low as it looks like pressure will
build again in the south bringing a return to rather cold and quiet weather with
frost at night, possibly some rain or drizzle in southwest England and milder
here. So generally a north-west/south-east split for the latter half of the week
with the south-east mainly dry and rather cold with frost at night, but the
north-west milder with rain at times and colder, brighter showery interludes.

Outlook for the following week with very low confidence is for eastern areas to
turn cold, mainly dry and frosty but western areas milder with rain at times,
obviously possible some wintry weather on the boundary.

Finally here is the Dartmoor winter walking and sledging forecast for the
weekend of 07/08th January 2006. High confidence that there will be some snow on
the ground this weekend. Difficult to ascertain how much, so sledging is
uncertain, but the higher Haytor runs could have 1-2cm by the end of Saturday.
Generally a cloudy weekend with outbreaks of snow above 280m asl. Winds look
like being east to south-east on Saturday so eastern and southern Dartmoor
likely to see most precipitation. So some snow on Friday night/ Saturday
morning, possibly brightening later in day. Temperatures around freezing above
450m asl rising to +2 deg C at 250 m asl. On Sunday winds swing more into the
south and it turns a bit milder so freezing levels rising to around 600m but
with outbreaks of snow above 400m asl gradually turning more to rain lower down.
Some moderate falls of snow are possible with 2-5 cms certainly possible on the
high southern moor (Buckland beacon?) and in the Princetown area. So if you can,
get out and enjoy the beautiful winter weather this weekend as it looks like it
will be back to the usual Dartmoor gales and rain next week!

Will Hand (Chief forecaster)

================================================== =============================

Here was last week's forecast:-

Summary valid for Sunday 01/01/06 to Saturday 08/01/06/
TOI (time of issue) Thursday 30/12/05 1000 UK local time

This summary is based on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, FAX,
and ENS (NCEP ensemble) labelled charts available from the superb
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten

Confidence is moderate to high for most of next week but turning low by the
weekend.

Sunday looks like being cold and showery in fresh to strong NW or Northerly
winds. Showers will be of snow over high ground in the north. Turning drier in
evening with a frost setting in as winds fall light.

During Monday rain and strengthening winds will spread into NW'ern areas. Other
parts having a fine day after a frosty start. Temperatures rather mild.

On Tuesday rain will spread to all areas from the NW but turning brighter and
mainly dry as the rain clears through. One or two showers in Scotland.
Temperatures around normal.

On Wednesday England and Wales could well stay fine and dry after a frost in
places at first but rain and strong SW winds will spread into Northern Ireland
and Scotland during the day. Possibly turning exceptionally mild in eastern
Scotland. Generally mild elsewhere.

On Thursday (lower confidence), some rain in the west and mild but turning
colder in the east. Winds easing in the north.

On Friday it will probably turn colder everywhere with outbreaks of rain. Cold
with some sleet and snow in northern areas. Winds uncertain but mostly light to
moderate.

Low confidence that the weekend will remain unsettled but turn milder with rain
at times.

Outlook for the following week with low confidence is for a changeable spell of
weather with bands of rain followed by colder showery interludes. Some snow on
hills and at times in Northern Ireland and Scotland. Temperatures around normal
in a predominantly westerly flow. 10% chance of another very cold easterly
developing.

Finally here is the winter walking and sledging forecast for Dartmoor for
weekend 31st/1st. No lying snow is expected this weekend. Frequent wintry
showers of rain, hail, sleet and wet snow are expected on Saturday, sleet and
wet snow mainly above 500m asl. Brighter on Sunday but still with wintry showers
over the high plateau.Winds will be westerly strong to gale on Saturday and
becoming north-westerly fresh to strong on Sunday. Freezing levels will be above
the summits all weekend. Temperatures around normal in the range 2-6 deg C
depending on altitude.
================================================== ==============

Cheers,


Will (Chief forecaster HMO/USW).
--

" Ah yet another day to enjoy "
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).


mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Pretty good forecast for this past week. Probably best keep the mid-week
thoughts in the draw in future. ;-)
"Don't normally say too much in between my weekly forecasts but in light of
the
developing very cold and prolonged scenario I thought I'd say a few things.
Looking at the last few runs of all the models I would say that the
ingredients
are coming into place for a possible major very cold spell." Some bugger's
nicked the ingredients!
Only joking and your thoughts are always welcome. This is where the use of
probabilities is so useful. You only said 40% chance, so people should have
realised it was not that likely.

Cheers,
Dave
"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

================================================== ==========================
====
===

This forecast represents the *PERSONAL OPINION* of the Chief forecaster at
the
privately run Haytor meteorological office in Devon on how the weather may
unfold next week. The Chief forecaster will take no responsibility
whatsoever
for any actions arising from its use. It is provided freely in the spirit
of
freedom and the great love for meteorology that we personally enjoy and
wish to
share freely with others.


================================================== ==========================
====
===


Summary valid for Sunday 08/01/06 to Saturday 14/01/06/
TOI (time of issue) Thursday 05/01/06 1000 UK local time

This summary is based on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO,
FAX,
and ENS (NCEP ensemble) labelled charts available from the superb
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten

From now on the previous week's forecast will be left at the end of the
present
forecast for comparison. (Sleet was seen on Dartmoor last weekend at 450m
asl
and gales).

Confidence is moderate for a return to mild and changeable conditions next
week
(60%), however, details and timings have low confidence as it is thought h
ere at
Haytor that the models are being slightly too quick with the frontal
incursions.

On Sunday most parts of the UK look like being cloudy and rather cold with
outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow. Snow mainly on high ground above 300m
and in
the west of Engalnd and over Wales. Some heavy outbreaks are possible
which will
fall as snow over high ground. Winds generally light from a south or
south-easterly direction.

During Monday a deepening low near Iceland will spread strong to gale
force
south-west winds into Northern Ireland and Scotland during the afternoon
accompanied by heavy rain. Turning mild here. Other areas should be mainly
dry
and cloudy after a frost in parts of the SE at first. Temperatures near
normal
and winds light.

On Tuesday the rain and very strong winds will spread very slowly
south-east.
Some of the rain is likely to be very heavy and accompanied by severe
southwesterly gales in the west and north particularly over high ground.
Local
flooding is a possibility. The SE could stay dry till after dark. Later in
the
day the rain should clear from Scotland and Northern Ireland and the winds
turn
a lighter westerly. Generally mild or very mild.

The rain should clear the SE on Wednesday and then all areas will be
brighter
and colder with sunny spells and showers. Most showers in western and
northern
areas where they will turn wintry over hills. Temperatures returning to
normal
values. Winds moderate to fresh west to northwest.

For the rest of the week confidence falls to low as it looks like pressure
will
build again in the south bringing a return to rather cold and quiet
weather with
frost at night, possibly some rain or drizzle in southwest England and
milder
here. So generally a north-west/south-east split for the latter half of
the week
with the south-east mainly dry and rather cold with frost at night, but
the
north-west milder with rain at times and colder, brighter showery
interludes.

Outlook for the following week with very low confidence is for eastern
areas to
turn cold, mainly dry and frosty but western areas milder with rain at
times,
obviously possible some wintry weather on the boundary.

Finally here is the Dartmoor winter walking and sledging forecast for the
weekend of 07/08th January 2006. High confidence that there will be some
snow on
the ground this weekend. Difficult to ascertain how much, so sledging is
uncertain, but the higher Haytor runs could have 1-2cm by the end of
Saturday.
Generally a cloudy weekend with outbreaks of snow above 280m asl. Winds
look
like being east to south-east on Saturday so eastern and southern Dartmoor
likely to see most precipitation. So some snow on Friday night/ Saturday
morning, possibly brightening later in day. Temperatures around freezing
above
450m asl rising to +2 deg C at 250 m asl. On Sunday winds swing more into
the
south and it turns a bit milder so freezing levels rising to around 600m
but
with outbreaks of snow above 400m asl gradually turning more to rain lower
down.
Some moderate falls of snow are possible with 2-5 cms certainly possible
on the
high southern moor (Buckland beacon?) and in the Princetown area. So if
you can,
get out and enjoy the beautiful winter weather this weekend as it looks
like it
will be back to the usual Dartmoor gales and rain next week!

Will Hand (Chief forecaster)


================================================== ==========================
===

Here was last week's forecast:-

Summary valid for Sunday 01/01/06 to Saturday 08/01/06/
TOI (time of issue) Thursday 30/12/05 1000 UK local time

This summary is based on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO,
FAX,
and ENS (NCEP ensemble) labelled charts available from the superb
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten

Confidence is moderate to high for most of next week but turning low by
the
weekend.

Sunday looks like being cold and showery in fresh to strong NW or
Northerly
winds. Showers will be of snow over high ground in the north. Turning
drier in
evening with a frost setting in as winds fall light.

During Monday rain and strengthening winds will spread into NW'ern areas.
Other
parts having a fine day after a frosty start. Temperatures rather mild.

On Tuesday rain will spread to all areas from the NW but turning brighter
and
mainly dry as the rain clears through. One or two showers in Scotland.
Temperatures around normal.

On Wednesday England and Wales could well stay fine and dry after a frost
in
places at first but rain and strong SW winds will spread into Northern
Ireland
and Scotland during the day. Possibly turning exceptionally mild in
eastern
Scotland. Generally mild elsewhere.

On Thursday (lower confidence), some rain in the west and mild but turning
colder in the east. Winds easing in the north.

On Friday it will probably turn colder everywhere with outbreaks of rain.
Cold
with some sleet and snow in northern areas. Winds uncertain but mostly
light to
moderate.

Low confidence that the weekend will remain unsettled but turn milder with
rain
at times.

Outlook for the following week with low confidence is for a changeable
spell of
weather with bands of rain followed by colder showery interludes. Some
snow on
hills and at times in Northern Ireland and Scotland. Temperatures around
normal
in a predominantly westerly flow. 10% chance of another very cold easterly
developing.

Finally here is the winter walking and sledging forecast for Dartmoor for
weekend 31st/1st. No lying snow is expected this weekend. Frequent wintry
showers of rain, hail, sleet and wet snow are expected on Saturday, sleet
and
wet snow mainly above 500m asl. Brighter on Sunday but still with wintry
showers
over the high plateau.Winds will be westerly strong to gale on Saturday
and
becoming north-westerly fresh to strong on Sunday. Freezing levels will be
above
the summits all weekend. Temperatures around normal in the range 2-6 deg C
depending on altitude.
================================================== ==============

Cheers,


Will (Chief forecaster HMO/USW).
--

" Ah yet another day to enjoy "
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).


mailto:
www:
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----

Will

What happened to and I quote "This one should be watched because we could
be facing (40% chance) a month of
very cold weather albeit on the dry side of normal" - posted a few days ago.
I appreciated it was 60% chance of not happening either

What went wrong ? what should we be looking for another Easterly to emerge
?Is January now a write off as far as snow is concerned ? (present spell not
included)

cheers

_______________________________
Paul Crabtree
Brampton, Cumbria
117m A.S.L
www.bramptonweather.co.uk
"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
================================================== ==============================
===

This forecast represents the *PERSONAL OPINION* of the Chief forecaster at
the
privately run Haytor meteorological office in Devon on how the weather may
unfold next week. The Chief forecaster will take no responsibility
whatsoever
for any actions arising from its use. It is provided freely in the spirit
of
freedom and the great love for meteorology that we personally enjoy and
wish to
share freely with others.

================================================== ==============================
===


Summary valid for Sunday 08/01/06 to Saturday 14/01/06/
TOI (time of issue) Thursday 05/01/06 1000 UK local time

This summary is based on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO,
FAX,
and ENS (NCEP ensemble) labelled charts available from the superb
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten

From now on the previous week's forecast will be left at the end of the
present
forecast for comparison. (Sleet was seen on Dartmoor last weekend at 450m
asl
and gales).

Confidence is moderate for a return to mild and changeable conditions next
week
(60%), however, details and timings have low confidence as it is thought
here at
Haytor that the models are being slightly too quick with the frontal
incursions.

On Sunday most parts of the UK look like being cloudy and rather cold with
outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow. Snow mainly on high ground above 300m
and in
the west of Engalnd and over Wales. Some heavy outbreaks are possible
which will
fall as snow over high ground. Winds generally light from a south or
south-easterly direction.

During Monday a deepening low near Iceland will spread strong to gale
force
south-west winds into Northern Ireland and Scotland during the afternoon
accompanied by heavy rain. Turning mild here. Other areas should be mainly
dry
and cloudy after a frost in parts of the SE at first. Temperatures near
normal
and winds light.

On Tuesday the rain and very strong winds will spread very slowly
south-east.
Some of the rain is likely to be very heavy and accompanied by severe
southwesterly gales in the west and north particularly over high ground.
Local
flooding is a possibility. The SE could stay dry till after dark. Later in
the
day the rain should clear from Scotland and Northern Ireland and the winds
turn
a lighter westerly. Generally mild or very mild.

The rain should clear the SE on Wednesday and then all areas will be
brighter
and colder with sunny spells and showers. Most showers in western and
northern
areas where they will turn wintry over hills. Temperatures returning to
normal
values. Winds moderate to fresh west to northwest.

For the rest of the week confidence falls to low as it looks like pressure
will
build again in the south bringing a return to rather cold and quiet
weather with
frost at night, possibly some rain or drizzle in southwest England and
milder
here. So generally a north-west/south-east split for the latter half of
the week
with the south-east mainly dry and rather cold with frost at night, but
the
north-west milder with rain at times and colder, brighter showery
interludes.

Outlook for the following week with very low confidence is for eastern
areas to
turn cold, mainly dry and frosty but western areas milder with rain at
times,
obviously possible some wintry weather on the boundary.

Finally here is the Dartmoor winter walking and sledging forecast for the
weekend of 07/08th January 2006. High confidence that there will be some
snow on
the ground this weekend. Difficult to ascertain how much, so sledging is
uncertain, but the higher Haytor runs could have 1-2cm by the end of
Saturday.
Generally a cloudy weekend with outbreaks of snow above 280m asl. Winds
look
like being east to south-east on Saturday so eastern and southern Dartmoor
likely to see most precipitation. So some snow on Friday night/ Saturday
morning, possibly brightening later in day. Temperatures around freezing
above
450m asl rising to +2 deg C at 250 m asl. On Sunday winds swing more into
the
south and it turns a bit milder so freezing levels rising to around 600m
but
with outbreaks of snow above 400m asl gradually turning more to rain lower
down.
Some moderate falls of snow are possible with 2-5 cms certainly possible
on the
high southern moor (Buckland beacon?) and in the Princetown area. So if
you can,
get out and enjoy the beautiful winter weather this weekend as it looks
like it
will be back to the usual Dartmoor gales and rain next week!

Will Hand (Chief forecaster)

================================================== =============================

Here was last week's forecast:-

Summary valid for Sunday 01/01/06 to Saturday 08/01/06/
TOI (time of issue) Thursday 30/12/05 1000 UK local time

This summary is based on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO,
FAX,
and ENS (NCEP ensemble) labelled charts available from the superb
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten

Confidence is moderate to high for most of next week but turning low by
the
weekend.

Sunday looks like being cold and showery in fresh to strong NW or
Northerly
winds. Showers will be of snow over high ground in the north. Turning
drier in
evening with a frost setting in as winds fall light.

During Monday rain and strengthening winds will spread into NW'ern areas.
Other
parts having a fine day after a frosty start. Temperatures rather mild.

On Tuesday rain will spread to all areas from the NW but turning brighter
and
mainly dry as the rain clears through. One or two showers in Scotland.
Temperatures around normal.

On Wednesday England and Wales could well stay fine and dry after a frost
in
places at first but rain and strong SW winds will spread into Northern
Ireland
and Scotland during the day. Possibly turning exceptionally mild in
eastern
Scotland. Generally mild elsewhere.

On Thursday (lower confidence), some rain in the west and mild but turning
colder in the east. Winds easing in the north.

On Friday it will probably turn colder everywhere with outbreaks of rain.
Cold
with some sleet and snow in northern areas. Winds uncertain but mostly
light to
moderate.

Low confidence that the weekend will remain unsettled but turn milder with
rain
at times.

Outlook for the following week with low confidence is for a changeable
spell of
weather with bands of rain followed by colder showery interludes. Some
snow on
hills and at times in Northern Ireland and Scotland. Temperatures around
normal
in a predominantly westerly flow. 10% chance of another very cold easterly
developing.

Finally here is the winter walking and sledging forecast for Dartmoor for
weekend 31st/1st. No lying snow is expected this weekend. Frequent wintry
showers of rain, hail, sleet and wet snow are expected on Saturday, sleet
and
wet snow mainly above 500m asl. Brighter on Sunday but still with wintry
showers
over the high plateau.Winds will be westerly strong to gale on Saturday
and
becoming north-westerly fresh to strong on Sunday. Freezing levels will be
above
the summits all weekend. Temperatures around normal in the range 2-6 deg C
depending on altitude.
================================================== ==============

Cheers,


Will (Chief forecaster HMO/USW).
--

" Ah yet another day to enjoy "
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).


mailto:
www:
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

To be honest Paul, I'm rather puzzled as to why the high is collapsing
so quickly. Only thing I can think of is forcing from the broadscale
upper flow at and above the jet stream level. What should we look for ?
Well I normally look for a strong south to north jet to the west of the
high and a cold plunge to the east and preferably a slow moving vortex/
depression to the south of the high centre. I guess it was the first
condition that we didn't properly get this time. Point a strong jet
straight at a high and it often collapses, but not always, sometimes
the jet splits and that helps to reinforce it so it is a fine balance
and the mechanisms of blocking and block breakdowns are still not fully
understood. What goes on at the tropopause is thought to be important
nowadays.

Best I can do.

Cheers,

Will (Haytor, Devon)
--