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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Tuesday. Issued 0555,
6 Jan 06. The models continue to show a mobile spell for the middle of next week, although with high pressure never that far away from the SE of England the rain may be quite light there compared with the rest of the UK. Beyond that the GFS shows the high lurking to our east eventually having another go at retrogressing, reintroducing easterlies by the middle of the month. A couple of other runs back that up in the GFS ensembles, but the general pattern is a mobile one with temperatures at or above average in the main. ECMWF: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Recm1201.gif A secondary low lies to the west, bringing SW'lies for all. There are further SW'lies at T+144 as a trough moves eastwards, followed by southerlies at T+168 from a low to the NW. MetO: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rukm1201.gif MetO shows complex low pressure over the Denmark Strait, with a mixture of westerlies and SW'lies for the UK. A ridge builds over England at T+144, bringing SW'lies there as well as to Northern Ireland and Wales. Scotland lies under westerlies. GFS: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn1201.png A trough covers Ireland, bringing westerlies to Northern Ireland and SW'lies elsewhere. A ridge builds over England and Wales at T+144 and the rest of the UK lies under southerlies. By T+168 a trough approaches from the west with southerlies for all. GEM: http://meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html The Canadian model shows a mobile westerly flow over the UK with lows to the north and west. GME/DWD: http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...060000_120.gif DWD brings a weak, transitory ridge over the UK with lows to the NW and NE. Winds are westerlies for most, with SW'lies over Northern Ireland. SW'lies cover all areas at T+144 due to a trough to the west. JMA: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rjma1201.gif The Japanese run shows SW'lies for all due to the UK being sandwiched between a high to the east and a low to the NW. SW'lies continue to affect the UK at T+144 as a ridge from the European high builds over the UK. NOGAPS: http://217.160.75.104/pics/ngp10.prp.120.europeg.gif Westerlies cover the UK with a trough over the North Sea and a deep low over the Denmark Strait. KMA: http://www.kma.go.kr/kma03/gif/g21nh_smsr_120.gif As with NOGAPS, the UK lies under westerlies again with a trough to the east. |
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