Quote -
"We are back after our Xmas and New Year break and are looking now looking
forward to an exciting couple of months of weather in the UK. Although
mainly mild conditions are likely during the next few days, medium range
computer forecasting models are now beginning to move into line with our
long range forecast for winter which suggested much colder weather
developing during the second half of January. At the moment our winter
forecast is proving to be exceptionally accurate, highlighting firstly the
quiet and anticyclonic weather during the early December, then the colder
spell towards Xmas, and then the switch back to milder and changeable
conditions which is currently occurring.
The change to colder weather is likely as high pressure begins to build to
the north east of the UK allowing a much colder easterly feed of air across
the UK. This needs watching closely during the next ten days because there
is the potential for the UK to have its coldest spell of wintry weather for
many years.
Issued 03/01/2004 "

Note issue date!!
I will try to be objective although it will be slightly subjective, in line
with the forecast itself. I would say that December's forecast was as good
as anybody could expect but I wouldn't say exceptional.Weren't there two
severe cold spells forecast? It would be more of a surprise to me if there
wasn't at least one Nw'ly outbreak giving temps of 5C in the South and snow
on high ground at some stage,each winter month. Also I thought (and I may be
wrong) that the cold was going to be of the Easterly variety. I noted that
George has recorded his only snowless December since 1994. Nearly every
winter, even in these milder times, will produce a couple of colder
interludes in each month. To say we were only a couple of days out would be
pretty meaningless. I will reserve my final opinion till later in the
winter, but frankly, unless we get something like two weeks near freezing
with widespread snowfall for the last two weeks of January I can't see it
being much more than inspired guesswork.
Others thoughts would be interesting, especially if they could refrain from
gratuitous TWO bashing. (Lawrence's jokes excepted, naturally!)

Dave

i would like to say that TWO bash USW.
If someone clenches their fists in public, then someone else will
clench their fists in public, but i see what you are saying, to not
lower ourselves down to their level

They claim to have successfully predicted the cold snap over Christmas
(it lasted for two days)
Except it didn't really arrive across the south of England, or maybe i
missed all the snow reports from southern Uk

Listen, anyone can write a few paragraphs that make some
generalisations about the weather for the next three months, without
committing to specifics.
It's people guessing what the general trends are going to be

Then they claim success if any part of their generalised forecasts turn
out correct. Wouldn't stand up to a scientific level of scutiny, with
this being a scientific discussion forum...

A popular radio talk show host in the US, reckons that someone
successfully predicted the tidal wave on 26th December 2004, because
they wrote "tsunami" around about 12 months ago, but without saying
where or when it would occur.
So if i write "hurricane" and it can apply for the next 12 months, then
if a hurricane occurs anywhere in the world, i will have considered to
have made a correct prediction. What a wonderful psychic i must be !!

I consider the way TWO and Metcheque put out their forecasts to be in
the category of 'mystic weather forecasts'
"Let's write something that is headline grabbing at the beginning of
December, and then hope it's right"

Sooner or later, the Uk will have a severe winter again, then they'll
get a hit, if you repeat something often enough, of course, sooner or
later you'll get that hit

ok, let's take a look at this in a calm fashion.

The first thing that needs to be done is to have a recap. I'll need to
re-produce the TWO winter forecast at end of message

December: They said the cold snap would mostly affect the North and the
East
Incorrect. The cold snap mostly affected the North and the West (high
ground particularly)

They said the cold snap would occur shortly before Christmas
Incorrect: It occured right over the Christmas weekend

For the January cold spell, they are forecasting the cold to come from
western Europe
Towards end of the second week of the month. South-eastern and Eastern
areas to be very cold

Feb, still too far away to talk about

There are some specifics there, but it's still a generalised forecast,
as any very long range forecast is going to be
And the way this winter has shaped up so far. Generally mild with brief
cold snap interludes, following the pattern
from recent winters, it seems to me
---
Headline:Cold with snow

Temperature
Colder than average with a Central England Temperature (CET) slightly
below average. Much colder conditions in January and February are
expected.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Precipitation
Often relatively dry. Some spells of heavy rain are likely at times but
these are unlikely to be frequent enough to bring precipitation levels
up to average values.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
December
Often quiet and dry conditions are expected to persist through much of
the first half of the month with temperatures remaining close to the
average for most of the time. The second half of the month is likely to
bring a notable change to more unsettled conditions at first, but then
a significant outbreak of wintry weather bringing widespread and sharp
frosts, and also a significant risk of snow for many areas, although
the north and east of the UK look to be at the highest risk. We think
the cold snap is most likely to occur shortly before Christmas. For the
month as a whole temperatures are expected to be about 0.5C above the
Central England Temperature (CET) average. Precipitation levels are
likely to be generally below average.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
January
Overall we expect a colder January with more snow than has become the
norm during recent years. The first half of the month is expected to
bring mild and damp conditions for a time before much colder weather
becomes embedded across western Europe and pushes towards the UK
probably towards the end of the second week of the month. This is
likely to mean a high risk of snow for much of the UK during the middle
part of the month. Our expectation is for south eastern and eastern
areas to experience particularly cold weather during this period. The
cold or even very cold theme looks likely to continue for a time before
milder weather returns towards the end of the month. For the month as a
whole temperatures are expected to be about 0.5C to 1C below the
Central England Temperature (CET) average. Precipitation levels for the
month are expected to be close to average.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
February
Another rather cold month is expected with wintry outbreaks from time
to time bringing the risk of further widespread falls of snow. The
month is likely to begin with mild and rather unsettled weather across
the UK. After the first week, a return to much colder conditions is
forecast and the risk of snow will spread from the east across most of
the UK. Frosts will probably develop widely and become severe in
places. Cold conditions may persist for a significant length of time
before milder weather comes back towards the end of the month bringing
rain to most areas. For the month as a whole temperatures are expected
to be about 0.2C to 0.7C below average. Precipitation levels for the
month are expected to be slightly below average.
---

"At the moment our winter forecast is proving to be exceptionally
accurate"

Anyone agree with Brian on this one?
A quick glance at the forecast itself, and that statement above is
proved wrong
I find it very annoying, that people use the word 'proof' without
really knowing what it means

i would like to say that TWO bash USW.
If someone clenches their fists in public, then someone else will
clench their fists in public, but i see what you are saying, to not
lower ourselves down to their level

They claim to have successfully predicted the cold snap over Christmas
(it lasted for two days)
Except it didn't really arrive across the south of England, or maybe i
missed all the snow reports from southern Uk

Listen, anyone can write a few paragraphs that make some
generalisations about the weather for the next three months, without
committing to specifics.
It's people guessing what the general trends are going to be

Then they claim success if any part of their generalised forecasts turn
out correct. Wouldn't stand up to a scientific level of scutiny, with
this being a scientific discussion forum...

A popular radio talk show host in the US, reckons that someone
successfully predicted the tidal wave on 26th December 2004, because
they wrote "tsunami" around about 12 months ago, but without saying
where or when it would occur.
So if i write "hurricane" and it can apply for the next 12 months, then
if a hurricane occurs anywhere in the world, i will have considered to
have made a correct prediction. What a wonderful psychic i must be !!

I consider the way TWO and Metcheque put out their forecasts to be in
the category of 'mystic weather forecasts'
"Let's write something that is headline grabbing at the beginning of
December, and then hope it's right"

Sooner or later, the Uk will have a severe winter again, then they'll
get a hit, if you repeat something often enough, of course, sooner or
later you'll get that hit

"At the moment our winter forecast is proving to be exceptionally
accurate"

Anyone agree with Brian on this one?
A quick glance at the forecast itself, and that statement above is
proved wrong
I find it very annoying, that people use the word 'proof' without
really knowing what it means

Remember the forecast was issued on the 1st Dec 2004
When the Euro High was firmly in control of the weather across the Uk
You didn't need to have psychic abilities to foresee that anti-cyclonic
conditions would be
continuing at least for a while going into December
Therefore Brian had a higher chance of getting the next immediate two
weeks correct compared with
the rest of the forecast

i would like to say that TWO bash USW.
If someone clenches their fists in public, then someone else will
clench their fists in public, but i see what you are saying, to not
lower ourselves down to their level

They claim to have successfully predicted the cold snap over Christmas
(it lasted for two days)
Except it didn't really arrive across the south of England, or maybe i
missed all the snow reports from southern Uk

Listen, anyone can write a few paragraphs that make some
generalisations about the weather for the next three months, without
committing to specifics.
It's people guessing what the general trends are going to be

Then they claim success if any part of their generalised forecasts turn
out correct. Wouldn't stand up to a scientific level of scutiny, with
this being a scientific discussion forum...

A popular radio talk show host in the US, reckons that someone
successfully predicted the tidal wave on 26th December 2004, because
they wrote "tsunami" around about 12 months ago, but without saying
where or when it would occur.
So if i write "hurricane" and it can apply for the next 12 months, then
if a hurricane occurs anywhere in the world, i will have considered to
have made a correct prediction. What a wonderful psychic i must be !!

I consider the way TWO and Metcheque put out their forecasts to be in
the category of 'mystic weather forecasts'
"Let's write something that is headline grabbing at the beginning of
December, and then hope it's right"

Sooner or later, the Uk will have a severe winter again, then they'll
get a hit, if you repeat something often enough, of course, sooner or
later you'll get that hit

"Dave.C" wrote in message
k...
Quote -
"We are back after our Xmas and New Year break.
Snip.

Anyone know if the Met Office et al are back from their hols yet?
It's been darned annoying not having any forecasts for the last couple of
weeks.
--
David Mitchell.
70m amsl, Langtoft, East Riding of Yorkshire.

"David Mitchell" wrote in message
...

"Dave.C" wrote in message
k...
Quote -
"We are back after our Xmas and New Year break.
Snip.

Anyone know if the Met Office et al are back from their hols yet?
It's been darned annoying not having any forecasts for the last couple of
weeks.

Who needs them? Can do our own this week. Windy with occasional spells of
rain....!

Sorry Dave, that I didn't get chance to hook up over a pint or two, what
with one thing and another, couldn't get out far!
--
Rob