The warnings may well have been justified if, as you say, there was a chance
a similar situation could have arose as that which happened in Dublin last
weekend. But in the event they were rather wrong for virtually everyone,
alas hindsight is a wonderful thing.
I did notice last night that the beeb emphasised the stronger gusts would be
confined to the onset of the cold front. But perhaps they should've
mentioned there was less than a 30% chance of such damaging gusts, rather
than a broadbrush severe gale being imminent in the north (perhaps I'm
asking for too much).
It would certainly be better if they explained the possibilities and
thinking behind such forecasts as well as you do Jon.
Cheers, Alex.


"Jon O'Rourke" wrote in message
...
"Alex Stephens Jr" wrote in message
...

Alex, worth remembering that if the higher gusts (e.g. 60KT+) were
considered less than a 30% probability they wouldn't go in to the TAFs.

The main problem was gauging what percentage of the gradient wind ahead of
the cold front (60-70KT or so) would be realised at the surface,
particulalry over low ground.

A look at the archive reveals the following gusts :-

Loch Glascarnoch 64KT 0500Z
Leuchars 54KT 0600Z
Edinburgh 52KT 0700Z
Ronaldsway 56KT 0800Z

I'm not sure the line convection element was as evident as expected, if it
had I suspect the gusts would've been nearer the gradient speeds, with
results perhaps not dissimilar to events at Dublin last Saturday. Plus
there
was concern over possible enhancement due to funnelling effects.

The warning was fully justified, IMHO.

Jon.