"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
No the models are not a waste of time. Useful signals are there if you
know how
to interpret and understand them.

Forecasting is a *skilled* job. Can everybody become an architect, make
funiture, or do plumbing from scratch? It's the same in meteorology.

Here's a big hint. In the run up to this *potential* very cold spell my
model of
choice has been ECMWF as it has performed very well.

Would generally agree re EC. Also interesting to note how the operational
runs of both EC and the GFS have picked up the change of type well in
advance but often as outliers. The ensembles then falling into line with
time. IIRC something similar happened with the snow event just after
Christmas.

EC's upgrade now only 10 days away
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/change...tion_2005.html

current stats.
http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ST.../aczhist6.html

Re your GFS life post, what happens when a particular run is delayed ?!
E.g.if the 18Z doesn't arrive does it mean no sleep ? :-)
In fairness the NWS appear to have few (obvious) problems with their
computing operations and the speed and consistency of their delivery is a
credit to them.

Jon.


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