I agree with everything you said Len.
"... and full marks to them if they correctly predict the final outcome, "
although I am beginning to worry that when the cold spell does one day
happen all sorts of people are going to claim they "predicted it". If you
keep saying the same thing and it eventually happens on a different occasion
it isn't really a prediction or a correct forecast.

Dave

Maybe we shouldnt have had that snow spell in nov?
that has always been a bad sign for me atleast


Yes I've mention a few times in December that 6cms of snow we had in
November would be our best fall of the Winter and the comments were,
now that would be a laugh!
There are going to be a lot of people laughing come March 1st
Certainly can't see anything coming close to it in this so called cold
snap!
Still Spring will soon be upon us and we can quickly forget about this
totally boring over hyped Winter!!.
--
Graham

In message , Steven Briggs
writes
In message , GKN
writes
Dave.
Last week I stuck my head above the parapet and stated that the models
further out than 48 hours were a waste of time.
I know it didn't go down that well at the time as there were a number of
replies more or less saying leave it to the experts to make the forecasts.
My statement was purely based on the fact that we eagerly troll through
these computer models on a daily basis looking for the onset of cold
weather, but in reality what are the actual results.
I hear you say, about the always two weeks away.
Well there it is. Delusion is a very accurate description of what we
experience.
I blame nobody for trying to forecast the probable outcome, and full marks
to them if they correctly predict the final outcome, but we have been let
down by the models so many times we really need to shorten the timescales of
belief.
I have critisized the MO many times thinking they were just mild rampers but
I would like to retract that critisizm and say that the only thing that may
be over hyped now is the severe weather warnings that are issued.
I do believe, looking at the last four winters that the cold does seem to be
re-appearing with a little more regularity than during the winters of the
late 90s and early 2000s. So maybe the future looks more promising.

Regards. Len.

I agree Len. The models do seem biased, overestimating the strength &
growth of the continental highs, and under estimating the strength of
Atlantic systems to keep the highs to the east. Hence, the cold is
always 10 days away but never happens.
I too got shot down when criticising excitement shown over the T+240
GFS for this Saturday, 28th.
Anyway, I've been collecting the GFS forecasts for Jan 28 as the days
have rolled by, I may put them all up on the web sometime.

Hmm, you could hear a pin drop in the silence from the usual
cold-rampers of usw!

--
steve

Weather at Scotton, Knaresborough, North Yorkshire
http://www.knaresboroughweather.co.uk

"Keith (Southend)" wrote in message


I would say the Met Office forecast has been pretty close,
I think what has had an effect on us all is the pre Christmas media hype
about the worst winter for 10 years etc.

So what are you saying?

You have all been deluding yourselves and that the forecasts are spot on
but the long range one was clap trap?

Apart from some marked striations yesterday my folk lore is out of shape
by and large as it should be clammy with a bit of a breexe. So I am
waiting for a crash to make the balance of payment.

(Got any signs of very bad weather overseas, anyone?)




--
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