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#12
January 30th 06, 03:12 PM
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The pitfalls and nuances of probability forecasts.
Felly sgrifennodd Dave.C :
This is happening to some extent, I feel, with the UKMO winter forecast. In the overall expectation of 66% chance of being colder than average, people that think it hasn't been that cold are saying it was good because it never really said it would be and people that think it has been cold are saying it was good because there was a 66% chance. That wasn't my reading of the forecast. My reading of it was that much of Europe stood a 66% chance of being colder than average (it has been), and that this was likely to have an effect on temperatures in the south, leading to the probability of a colder than average winter there (i.e. 50%). That's probably right too isn't it? Adrian -- Adrian Shaw ais@ Adran Cyfrifiadureg, Prifysgol Cymru, aber. Aberystwyth, Ceredigion, Cymru ac. http://users.aber.ac.uk/ais uk |
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