Martin
To be fair, I hadn't realised it was such a long time ago until I thought
about it when answering your question. Ah well - Here's hoping for better
forecasts.

Iain

"Martin Rowley" m wrote in
message ...

"Iain Mackay" no_one@here wrote in message
...
Martin
Sorry - can't remember the exact dates. It was probably mid June 1987.
The weather had been clear and settled for the previous week days before
we began thinking about the run home.

... if it was 1987 (June), then it was certainly an unsettled start to the
month, with strong winds up until the start of the second week, but
gradients easing thereafter. I can't see anything in the synoptic
situation to indicate why a forecast of strong winds (across such a wide
area) would be issued when none occurred - it's usually the other way
about at that time of year! However, without knowing the dates etc., it is
pointless at this range to speculate further.

I was curious to to find out if the underlying modelling process for high
pressure systems had/has a known (or suspected) weakness under some
conditions and keep that in mind when considering how to respond to
forecasts in future.

... the modelling has improved enormously since that time: I hadn't
realised you were thinking nearly 20 years ago ;-) As noted in my
earlier response, although not perfect, the modern generation of models as
regards *wind* forecasts are pretty good; it is usually the interpretation
and poor means of communication that are the problem, rather than the raw
model output. Other output (cloud, rain etc.) of course *do* still cause
problems, as at the start of this thread.

Martin.


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