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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Monday. Issued 0547,
16 Feb 06. The models show high pressure to the west to start the working week, with a northerly flow likely across the UK. An upper ridge then looks like building NE'wards, taking the surface high with it rather than allowing it to "topple" as so often happens. This will have the effect of winds veering NE'ly and possibly even easterly, but by then the models start to diverge. The GFS ensembles show excellent agreement of a 4 day cold spell across the country with temperatures borderline for snow at low levels (eg London). ECMWF: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Recm1201.gif The UK lies between a high to the NW and a low to the east, leading to northerlies and NNE'lies. THere's little change at T+144, but by T+168 the low to the east drifts slowly SW'wards, introducing NE'lies across Scotland and Northern Ireland. Elsewhere winds remain northerlies. MetO: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rukm1201.gif Northerlies cover the UK with a ridge to the west. The ridge builds to the NW at T+144 with further northerlies as a result. GFS: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn1201.png GFS brings a NNE'ly flow over the UK, this time with low pressure over France. The winds become NE'lies at T+144 as pressure builds to the north, followed by ENE'lies at T+168 as high pressure builds over Scandinavia. GEM: http://meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html The Canadian run shows NE'lies for all with high pressure to the NW. GME/DWD: http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...160000_120.gif High pressure covers Scotland and Northern Ireland with NNE'lies elsewhere. The high moves slowly eastwards at T+144, bringing light winds to most areas. NOGAPS: http://217.160.75.104/pics/ngp10.prp.120.europeg.gif NOGAPS shows a ridge to the west and northerlies across the UK. KMA: http://www.kma.go.kr/kma03/gif/g21nh_smsr_120.gif The Korean run brings easterlies across the UK with low pressure over France. |
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