Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Wednesday. Issued
0545, 18 Feb 06.

In summary, the models still show a cold spell looming for the UK, with high
pressure to the north slowly retrogressing towards Greenland. The GFS shows
the potential for snow across England and Wales on Thursday, accompanied by
strong to gale force winds giving rise to blizzard-like conditions - one to
watch, but certainly impossible to predict with any accuracy at this range.

Snow is likely in prone areas though, especially over higher ground in
eastern areas. It also looks likely that a pulse of less cold air will
circulate around the high at the end of the week, as the high retrogresses
NW'wards and the milder air that was carried northwards to our west sinks
southwards again over the UK.

As ever in these situations it's worth keeping an eye on your local
forecasts via the BBC and Met Office, as snow is notoriously difficult to
predict until the eleventh hour!

ECMWF: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Recm1201.gif
A NE'ly flow covers much of the UK with a ridge over northern Scotland. The
ridge builds to the north at T+144, introducing ENE'lies for all. The
ENE'lies persist at T+168 as the high sinks slowly southwards.

MetO: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rukm1201.gif
ENE'lies cover the UK due to a high to the north of Scotland. The high
builds and moves NW'wards at T+144, allowing an increasingly cyclonic NE'ly
flow to affect the UK.

GFS: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn1201.png
The UK lies between a high to the west and a cold low over the North Sea,
with northerlies as a result. The low deepens and moves quickly SW'wards at
T+144, bringing strong ENE'lies across England and Wales (and potentially a
fair bit of snow too). Scotland and Northen Ireland are affected by lighter
ENE'lies. Less cold air feeds in from the NE at T+168, with strong NE'ly
winds for all.

GEM: http://meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html
The Canadian run shows ENE'lies across the UK, again with a high to the
north. Winds remain ENE'lies at T+144 as the high moves westwards.

GME/DWD:
http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...180000_120.gif
High pressire is centred to the NE, with ENE'lies across the UK. The winds
become NE'lies at T+144 as the high splits in two; one centre moves
eastwards over Scandinavia and the other builds to the east of Greenland.

NOGAPS: http://217.160.75.104/pics/ngp10.prp.120.europeg.gif
NOGAPS brings a mixture of NE'lies and ENE'lies over the UK due to a high to
the north.

KMA: http://www.kma.go.kr/kma03/gif/g21nh_smsr_120.gif
The Korean run shows high pressure atop Scotland, bringing light winds there
and to Northern Ireland. Elsewhere winds are NE'lies.

Darren Prescott wrote:

Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Wednesday. Issued
0545, 18 Feb 06.

In summary, the models still show a cold spell looming for the UK, with high
pressure to the north slowly retrogressing towards Greenland. The GFS shows
the potential for snow across England and Wales on Thursday, accompanied by
strong to gale force winds giving rise to blizzard-like conditions - one to
watch, but certainly impossible to predict with any accuracy at this range.

Snow is likely in prone areas though, especially over higher ground in
eastern areas. It also looks likely that a pulse of less cold air will
circulate around the high at the end of the week, as the high retrogresses
NW'wards and the milder air that was carried northwards to our west sinks
southwards again over the UK.

As ever in these situations it's worth keeping an eye on your local
forecasts via the BBC and Met Office, as snow is notoriously difficult to
predict until the eleventh hour!

How does the present fog/thick mist affect the matrix for these models
(seeing that such mists might be concurrent with building cyclonic
activity in the tropics?)

At the moment, there are no large tropical storms posted on Eric
Hablich's site. So I take it that fairly long range forecasts would not
have been prepared from data that could compensate for such
developments?

Is it really so?

And might the rather large intro here be considered a warning of
uncertainties to be found in all weather forecasts in the VNF? A sort
of weatherforcast forecast, so to speak?

Now I suppose I had better RTFA.

Weatherlawyer wrote:
Darren Prescott wrote:



How does the present fog/thick mist affect the matrix for these models
(seeing that such mists might be concurrent with building cyclonic
activity in the tropics?)

Do you get your information from under a pyramid or whilst sitting on a
ley line?


At the moment, there are no large tropical storms posted on Eric
Hablich's site. So I take it that fairly long range forecasts would not
have been prepared from data that could compensate for such
developments?

Is it really so?

And might the rather large intro here be considered a warning of
uncertainties to be found in all weather forecasts in the VNF? A sort
of weatherforcast forecast, so to speak?

You really need to check to see if you have forgotten to take any of
your meds this morning.


Now I suppose I had better RTFA.


Most definitely.