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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Thursday. Issued
0549, 19 Feb 06. The models persist in showing a cold spell for the latter half of the week, although as before there's a high chance of some less cold air being brought over the UK for the weekend. Eastern areas especially are at risk of seeing something wintry and some areas could well see a covering by Friday - more especially over higher ground but not exclusively. The GFS, as yesterday, still shows a depression tracking westwards across the UK and if that were to come off snow would be widespread, driven on by gusty winds. However, none of the other runs back this up, so it remains a very low probability. The GFS ensembles show a fair bit of scatter as early as Thursday but the underlying picture is a cold one. ECMWF: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Recm1201.gif High pressure lies to the NW, with NE'lies for all. NE'lies persist at T+144 as the high builds and drifts NE'wards. By T+168 the high lies to the north with less cold NE'lies across the UK. MetO: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rukm1201.gif The UK lies under a mixture of easterlies and ENE'lies, with high pressure to the NE. The high builds and sinks southwards at T+144, with further easterlies and ENE'lies for the UK. GFS: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn1201.png A large area of high pressure extends SE'wards from Greenland, with a strong ridge over Scandinavia. Easterlies cover Scotland and Northern Ireland as a result, but things are complicated elsewhere by a shallow low over Wales with cold southerlies across much of England. The low moves away to the SW at T+144, leaving the whole of the UK under strong easterlies. T+168 sees further easterlies as a trough crosses Biscay and the high to the north declines slightly. GEM: http://meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html The Canadian run shows easterlies across the UK as the result of a low over Biscay and highs to the NE and NW. The Biscay low moves NE'wards at T+144, leading to a mixture of northerlies and NE'lies for England and Wales; elsewhere winds remain easterlies. GME/DWD: http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...190000_120.gif High pressure is centred over Scandinavia with a ridge towards Greenland, leading to a mixture of easterlies and SE'lies for the UK. Easterlies persist at T+144 as a shallow low moves eastwards along the English Channel. NOGAPS: http://217.160.75.104/pics/ngp10.prp.120.europeg.gif NOGAPS also shows easterlies, this time with high pressure over Iceland. KMA: http://www.kma.go.kr/kma03/gif/g21nh_smsr_120.gif The Korean run shows high pressure ridging SE'wards from Greenland to Scandinavia, via Iceland. ENE'lies cover the UK as a result. |
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