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This forecast represents the *PERSONAL OPINION* of the Chief forecaster at the
privately run Haytor meteorological office in Devon on how the weather may
unfold next week. The Chief forecaster will take no responsibility whatsoever
for any actions arising from its use. It is provided freely in the spirit of
freedom and the great love for meteorology that we personally enjoy and wish to
share freely with others.

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Summary valid for Sunday 05/03/06 to Saturday 12/03/06/
TOI (time of issue) Thursday 02/02/06 2100 UK local time

This summary is based on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, FAX,
and ENS (NCEP ensemble) labelled charts available from the superb
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten

High confidence that the cold spell will be over by Tuesday in all areas.
Moderate confidence in details.

On Sunday a very cold northerly will bring frequent snow showers to all areas
that saw most snow this week. That is, the east, west and northern fringes of
the UK. Some will be heavy with drifting in strong winds. Away from the snowy
areas, sunny spells with snow and hail showers in the afternoon, possibly heavy
for a while and coming in a band. Moderate to severe frost after dark.

On Monday snow showers will die out from the west to leave a dry and sunny cold
day. Strong northerly winds easing. Frost returning in the evening, but the SW
will cloud over with possibly a little rain, sleet and hill snow by midnight.

On Tuesday rain, preceeded by sleet and snow on hills will spread in quickly
from the west. West to southwest winds will become strong. Thaw of lying snow in
all areas by evening. Turning very mild in the south later after a cold start
with a lot of hill fog and drizzle, especially over thawing snow cover.

Wednesday looks like being a much brighter day than Tuesday with some sunshine
and just one or two showers in the north. Temperatures about averge for early
March. Continued thaw of any remaining snow.

More rain and wind on Wednesday night into Thursday but then turning brighter
and much colder during thursday from the west. Wintry showers following the
rain, mainly in western and northern areas exposed to the fresh or strong NW
wind.

Friday looks like starting bright and showery, but more rain and wind spreading
from the SW later and turning much milder again.

Outlook for the weekend and the following week.

Spring arrives with temperatures reaching the mid to high teens in the south
with some warm sunshine at times. Low to moderate confidence.

Finally here is the Dartmoor winter walking and sledging forecast for the
weekend of 4th/5th March 2006.

Make the most of it as it will be the last cold and snowy weekend for a while
now. Basically sunny spells and snow showers, some heavy, on both days. Max
temperatures 2-5 deg C depending on altitude. Snow cover will be very variable
(as it is now) with the strong sunshine melting the snow. Sledging will be iffy.
However, the high moor above 480m still has plenty of snow with deep drifts over
a metre, so some excellent winter walking in prospect at altitude. Combine this
with the superb visibility we have had all week (out of the snow showers), it is
definitely a weekend to be on Dartmoor. Well where else would you want to be :-)

Will

Chief Forecaster

Last week's forecast below as usual

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Summary valid for Sunday 26/02/06 to Saturday 04/03/06/
TOI (time of issue) Thursday 23/02/06 1930 UK local time

This summary is based on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, FAX,
and ENS (NCEP ensemble) labelled charts available from the superb
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten

First a few words about last week's forecast which was not up to the usual
standard. Main error was that the deep low on Sunday tracked further south than
expected and so rain was not as heavy nor last as long as expected. Because the
rain was not as heavy it did not turn to snow at low levels or even over low
hills on Dartmoor. Knock on effects were that the low-level flow was not as
strong and was slower in advecting colder air from the east, hence really cold
weather did not arrive till mid-week in lowland England. Also in the north some
milder air got dragged over the top of the high to return today as a warm front
coming in from the northeast - not picked up last thursday. So I apologise for
those errors.

OK, this Sunday and Monday look like being cold and bright days with plenty of
sunshine around especially in the north. The sun is now strong enough to melt
lying snow quickly. In southern England a strong east wind will persist,
probably bringing some wintry showers, especially to Devon and Cornwall giving
more snow over the moors. Staying cold with frost at night, locally severe over
snow cover away from the south.

On Tuesday and Wednesday the development of a cyclonic northerly regime as the
high retreats to Iceland/Greenland area will bring very cold air south to all
areas. Potentially then a lot of snow in exposed northern and eastern areas with
drifting in the strong to gale force northerly winds. On the other hand many
inland areas, such as the Midlands and large parts of southern england will stay
dry with sunny spells. Severe frost in sheltered areas at night. Always the risk
of troughs/polar lows coming south bringing more widespread snow, troughs more
likely to affect western areas such as west Wales and Devon and Cornwall.

For the rest of the week indications are that the northerly flow will ease
gradually and many inland areas should stay dry and bright but very cold with
frost at night, possibly some fog later too. More snow in exposed northern,
eastern and some western areas.

So to summarise, very high confidence for cold weather to continue all week.
Moderate confidence for some very heavy snowfall with local blizzards in exposed
northern and eastern areas. Low confidence for significant snow elsewhere,
exposed western areas more likely than inland central parts which could stay dry
throughout the week.

Outlook for the following week beginning 5/3/06.

Rain, preceeded by snow spreading to all areas by midweek, then mild and
changeable. Low confidence in this change.

Finally here is the Dartmoor winter walking and sledging forecast for the
weekend of 26th/27th February 2006.

Well what can I say! Excellent winter walking and sledging prospects all
weekend. Snow may turn a bit soft and melt below 300m asl on Saturday but by
Sunday colder air and a frosty night will ensure optimum winter conditions.
Enjoy, but take care on the high plateau as wind chill will be severe. Snow
tyres/chains/4WD may be necessary if driving on the more remote upland tracks.
Temperatures -1 to +3 deg C depending on altitude and sunshine. Confidence high
for the best weekend of the winter so far.

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Will.
--

" Ah yet another day to enjoy "
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A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

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DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
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